2021 Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Scripts, Editing and Other Features

Today we’re talking screenplays and other feature film categories.

ANIMATED FEATURE

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  • Onward

  • Over the Moon

  • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

  • Soul

  • Wolfwalkers

This goes to Annie champ Soul, but it’s too bad Wolfwalkers can’t get some love too. The Pixar or Disney favorites always win though. No contest.

Winner: Soul


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

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  • Collective

  • Crip Camp 

  • The Mole Agent

  • My Octopus Teacher

  • Time

The movie that should win this category hands down is Collective, but the sentimental Netflix favorite My Octopus Teacher (the worst reviewed movie in this bunch) has been mounting a surprise campaign of winning precursor awards, including things like the PGA and Bafta. The problem is that the whole Academy votes on this category, when once upon a time it was only the documentary branch that did, and the mood of voters these days is to embrace escapism and not real world issues, etc. I think that movie will win this, but it puts a sour taste in my mouth when all four other films are far superior.

Winner: My Octopus Teacher

Alternate: Collective

Dark Horse: The Mole Agent


INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

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  • Another Round (Denmark)

  • Better Days (Hong Kong)

  • Collective (Romania)

  • The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

  • Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Denmark’s Another Round will take this one and Thomas Vinterberg’s surprise Best Director nomination is the giveaway (whenever a foreign film also makes it into Picture and/or Director, that’s the hint). So no chance for Collective here either, sadly. But Another Round is great too.

Winner: Another Round

Alternate: Quo Vadis, Aida? (has won some other prizes this season)


FILM EDITING

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  • The Father

  • Nomadland 

  • Promising Young Woman

  • Sound of Metal

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

This one is kinda tough, with the Best Picture heavies pitted against each other. Sound of Metal took Bafta, but the powerful editors guild went with Chicago 7. I kind of think Trial will win something and this is its most likely place, so I’m going to go with that. But it’s close.

Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alternate: Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: The Father


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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  • Judas and the Black Messiah

  • Minari

  • Promising Young Woman

  • Sound of Metal

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

Emerald Fennell won both the Bafta and the WGA over Chicago 7, so the industry seems to have agreed this is the place to award Promising Young Woman. I will go with it as well.

Winner: Promising Young Woman

Alternate: The Trial of the Chicago 7


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

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  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

  • The Father 

  • Nomadland

  • One Night in Miami

  • The White Tiger

Oooh, a tough one. Nomadland wasn’t nominated at WGA, where Borat won (won’t happen here). And then Bafta went for The Father in a somewhat surprise win, but I think that could happen here too. Usually the Best Picture winner does win this award, but I happen to think Nomadland could still win the top prize with just director and cinematography, so I’m gonna go ahead and predict The Father for this.

Winner: The Father

Alternate: Nomadland

2021 Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Sets, Costumes, Lighting, Makeup and Music

Moving on to the bigger tech categories today, we have sets, costumes, lighting, etc. Let’s get started.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

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  • The Father

  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

  • Mank

  • News of the World

  • Tenet

Mank has been sweeping this award throughout the season, winning the guild, Bafta, critics choice, etc. The art direction is lovely and period black and white (1940’s), I’d say it’s definitely got this one locked down.

Winner: Mank

Alternate: The Father


COSTUME DESIGN

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  • Emma

  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

  • Mank

  • Mulan

  • Pinocchio

I once thought Emma could win this award, but Ma Rainey has swept it the way Mank has production design. The truth is it’s just a more widely seen movie. Still, you don’t go against the guild, Bafta and critics choice winner in either case.

Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Alternate: Emma

Dark Horse: Mulan


MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

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  • Emma

  • Hillbilly Elegy

  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

  • Mank

  • Pinocchio

Chalk this one up to Ma Rainey as well, although Pinocchio deserves this in my opinion. Again, Ma Rainey is just more widely seen. Pinocchio could pull it off if less people were to vote in this category, but still, Bafta and the guild says it’s Ma Rainey.

Winner: Ma Rainey

Alternate: Pinocchio


CINEMATOGRAPHY

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  • Judas and the Black Messiah

  • Mank

  • News of the World

  • Nomadland

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

This one is a little more interesting, because we have a precursor split. Nomadland won at Bafta and critics choice, but Mank pulled out the ASC, which is the guild award. And Mank’s cinematography is gorgeous (and black and white to boot). I think it’s probably still going to go to Nomadland, which is the Best Picture frontrunner, but I would not be shocked if it didn’t.

Winner: Nomadland

Alternate: Mank

Dark Horse: News of the World (should have gotten more awards love)


ORIGINAL SCORE

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  • Da 5 Bloods

  • Mank

  • Minari

  • News of the World

  • Soul

Soul has been winning this award handily for Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and The Late Show band leader Jon Batiste. I’d expect that streak to continue easily.

Winner: Soul

Alternate: Minari

Dark Horse: News of the World (this category had some very good scores overall)


ORIGINAL SONG

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  • “Fight For You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

  • “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

  • “Hasavik,” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

  • “lo Is (Seen),” The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)

  • “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

I don’t have a lot of insight into this category and I’m betting the voters don’t know any of these songs either. I think it’ll probably go to “Speak Now,” which is sung by Leslie Odom Jr., so because that one probably has the most name recognition, I think it’ll come out on top. But many probably won’t vote on this.

Winner: “Speak Now”

Alternate: “Fight for You” (this is from a Best Picture nominee, so it’s possible too)

See Marvel's Official Teaser for 'Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings'

The long delayed blockbuster movies are finally, hopefully coming out this year, and Shang-Chi is next up in line for the MCU. It looks pretty typical, as all their movies do and I still wish Marvel would allow themselves to change up their aesthetic for creative purposes (this could have been a really cool, authentic martial arts movie). But generic is a positive word for an empire run entirely by corporate suits and not creatives. By the way, does anyone else find Awkwafina irritating and obnoxious?

2021 Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Shorts, Sound and Visual Effects

Okay everybody. It’s time to do annual Oscar predictions for this very delayed ceremony. As always, we start out with the tech categories, beginning with shorts, sound and special effects.

ANIMATED SHORT

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  • Burrow

  • Genius Loci 

  • If Anything Happens I Love You

  • Opera 

  • Yes-People 

Okay, so here’s the thing about the shorts. Few of the voters will actually pick anything for these, because most of them didn’t watch them. That leaves only the short filmmakers themselves as the ones voting, so it usually is worth it to actually watch these if you’re trying to predict the winner. I saw all the animated shorts and to me the clear winner by a long shot is the Chinese short Opera, which stands apart from all the others as something entirely different and intriguing, as well as artful. But If Anything Happens I Love You is about a school shooting tragedy and hits you emotionally, which helps a lot with these shorts.

Winner: If Anything Happens I Love You

Alternate: Opera

Dark Horse: Burrow


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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  • Colette

  • A Concerto is a Conversation

  • Do Not Split

  • Hunger Ward

  • A Love Song for Latasha

I have not seen the doc or live action shorts, so I simply have to look them up and go by odds. From what I’ve read, A Concerto is a Conversation is produced by Ava Duvernay, so I think that one has the edge.

Winner: A Concerto is a Conversation

Alternate: A Love Song for Latasha

Dark Horse: Hunger Ward


LIVE ACTION SHORT

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  • Feeling Through

  • The Letter Room

  • The Present

  • Two Distant Strangers

  • White Eye

From what I read about the live action shorts, Feeling Through is the most emotional one, and about a deaf and blind man (plus the short is produced by Oscar winner Marlee Matlin), but Two Distant Strangers is timely and right on its heels.

Winner: Feeling Through

Alternate: Two Distant Strangers

Dark Horse: The Letter Room (Oscar Isaac is in this and sometimes the shorts with a famous person in them will win)


SOUND

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  • Greyhound

  • Mank 

  • News of the World

  • Soul

  • Sound of Metal

Okay, so finally, after many, many years of me begging and pleading for them to do this, the Academy has finally combined the sound mixing and editing awards into one, easily defined category- best sound. As such, I would be shocked if this did not go to the movie with the word “sound” in its title, wouldn’t you? One of the sound precursor awards did go to Sound of Metal, as did the Bafta award. So I’d bet on that for sure. Though I think Soul does stand a chance here as well.

Winner: Sound of Metal

Alternate: Soul

Dark Horse: Greyhound (this won a sound precursor award too, but that was only sound editors voting and this is the whole Academy, most of whom probably didn’t see this film)


VISUAL EFFECTS

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  • Love and Monsters

  • The Midnight Sky

  • Mulan

  • The One and Only Ivan

  • Tenet

So the VFX society awarded this to The Midnight Sky, but that guild has a pretty poor track record of matching Oscar. I’d stick with Tenet for this, which was Bafta’s choice, and likely the only movie the voters have seen in the category.

Winner: Tenet

Alternate: The Midnight Sky

Dark Horse: Mulan

Amy Adams Stars in 'The Woman in the Window'

This movie was shot a couple years ago and is now finally coming out on Netflix. Supposedly it tested terribly with audiences and had to go through all kinds of reshoots with another director, but the trailer doesn’t it make it look that bad. More like a throwback to a kind of typical 90’s thriller, don’t you think? I actually read this book, which was pretty trashy and obvious. Also pretty straightforward, so it seems like it’d be hard to screw up. I guess we’ll see.