2022 Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Screenplays, Features, Editing

Today we’re on to the other feature film nominees, editing and the toss up categories this year- the screenplays.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Encanto

  • Flee

  • Luca

  • The Mitchells vs. The Machines

  • Raya and the Last Dragon

I don’t see any way that Encanto doesn’t take this. It became sort of a phenomenon on Disney+ this winter, especially the soundtrack, and the ubiquitousness of the movie will put it in front. Netflix’s The Mitchells vs. The Machines had some clout with the Annie Awards and some of the guilds, but the Academy very rarely is even aware of the non-Disney or Pixar movie in this category, so this is just another one of those years.

Winner: Encanto

Alternate: The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Dark Horse: Flee


BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • Ascension

  • Attica

  • Flee

  • Summer of Soul

  • Writing With Fire

Summer of Soul has dominated this category all season long and there’s no reason to think that changes with the Academy. It’s the populist choice and now that the whole Academy votes on this category (which never used to be the case), the populist choice always wins.

Winner: Summer of Soul

Alternate: Flee

Dark Horse: Attica


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

  • Drive My Car (Japan)

  • Flee (Denmark)

  • The Hand of God (Italy)

  • Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

  • The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Poor Flee. It made history by being nominated in three different categories, yet it’s unlikely to win any of them. Drive My Car is clearly the winner here, having been nominated in Picture and Director as well (no movie that got those extra nominations in this category has ever lost, and Drive My Car is the first Japanese movie to do so).

Winner: Drive My Car

Alternate: Flee

Dark Horse: The Worst Person in the World (also got a screenplay nom)


BEST FILM EDITING

  • Dune

  • Nightmare Alley

  • The Power of the Dog

  • The Tragedy of Macbeth

  • West Side Story

Yet another category that got kicked off the show and such an important one! So aggravating. Not only that, but this is one of the most open races of the night, one that could signal where the results are heading and we get to find out who won it on twitter before the show starts? What fucking bullshit. I’ll never not be angry about this. It’s totally open, with no frontrunner, as the guild (ACE) went to King Richard, BAFTA chose No Time to Die (not nominated) and BFCA went with West Side Story. I do think this could be a total surprise winner, and I’m kind of tempted to want to go with Power of the Dog? The editing is so key to the impact of the film, I wouldn’t be shocked if it took this.

Winner: The Power of the Dog

Alternate: King Richard

Dark Horse: West Side Story


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Belfast

  • Don’t Look Up

  • King Richard

  • Licorice Pizza

  • The Worst Person in the World

So this one’s open as well, because WGA went with Don’t Look Up while BAFTA chose Licorice Pizza and BFCA picked Belfast. I think I’m going with Belfast because the Academy liked that movie more than the other films, giving it 7 nominations and this is the only real chance for it to win something. I think the WGA felt like Licorice Pizza wasn’t “important” enough despite PTA’s overdue status and if the Academy feels similarly, Belfast is the other alternative (with Kenneth Branagh being overdue as well).

Winner: Belfast

Alternate: Don’t Look Up

Dark Horse: Licorice Pizza


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • CODA

  • Drive My Car

  • Dune

  • The Lost Daughter

  • The Power of the Dog

I once thought this was Power of the Dog’s to lose, but the movie cratered so much during the guild run that I now wonder if Campion is barely hanging on in director. Then I thought The Lost Daughter was going to be the favorite after winning the Scripter award, but CODA came in and surprised everyone by quickly winning BAFTA and WGA nearly back to back. With that track record, I think it has to win here too, but honestly, that particular screenplay winning is an embarrassment (and I liked the movie! But it’s nothing if not predictable and formulaic).

Winner: CODA

Alternate: The Lost Daughter

Dark Horse: Drive My Car (this could happen if the vote’s really fractured)

2022 Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Sound, VFX, Makeup and Shorts

Ok, here we go. Unlike the Academy, I respect each branch, so I will be making my predictions for all the important categories that got kicked off the telecast this year and will be tweeted out before the show even starts. 

BEST SOUND

  • Belfast

  • Dune

  • No Time to Die

  • The Power of the Dog

  • West Side Story

Dune has got the sound category locked up, in my opinion. It’s won every guild award, including the MPSE and CAS, plus the BAFTA, and sound was one of the technical elements for which the film was most praised. Occasionally when this category used to be split, an action movie would take editing and a musical might win mixing, but now that it’s one, I’d say Dune has it in the bag.

Winner: Dune

Alternate: West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

  • Coming 2 America

  • Cruella

  • Dune

  • The Eyes of Tammy Faye

  • House of Gucci

So the guild liked Coming 2 America for this, but recent wins from BAFTA and BFCA for The Eyes of Tammy Faye seem to add to Jessica Chastain’s momentum in Best Actress, where for whatever reason, the category has often been paired with Best Makeup even if it’s a subpar movie (which indicates to me that people think they’re awarding Best Makeup Acting, but whatever). I think Tammy Faye will prevail in this case (thought frankly the makeup in that was extremely un-impressive and distracting, but alas).

Winner: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Alternate: Dune

Dark Horse: Cruella

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Dune

  • Free Guy

  • No Time to Die

  • Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

  • Spider-Man: No Way Home

This is another area Dune has dominated, winning the guild and BAFTA, and I think it should also come out on top here, but there’s perhaps a chance the Academy wants to give Spider-Man something? This is the only place it could, so there’s that.

Winner: Dune

Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Audible

  • Lead Me Home

  • The Queen of Basketball

  • Three Songs for Benazir

  • When We Were Bullies

Oh boy. The bane of my existence this time of year are the shorts. Sorry, but I never get to see them (this year I didn’t even see the animated ones) and I always feel like I’m going for a shot in the dark based on reputation, plot summary or cast. In this case, my best guess is The Queen of Basketball, which I hear if the most emotionally moving (which is usually the winner).

Winner: The Queen of Basketball

Alternate: When We Were Bullies


BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

  • Ala Kachuu- Take and Run

  • The Dress

  • The Long Goodbye

  • On My Mind

  • Please Hold

So, Riz Ahmed is the star of The Long Goodbye and that’s basically the reason I’m picking it. In the past, when there’s a name in the live action short, it’s won, so there you go.

Winner: The Long Goodbye

Alternate: The Dress

Dark Horse: Please Hold


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • Affairs of the Art

  • Bestia

  • Boxballet

  • Robin Robin

  • The Windshield Wiper

Robin Robin is the most traditional, cutesy winner here. Truth is, not many people vote for these categories except for the branches themselves, but even so, the broadest animated short usually wins.

Winner: Robin Robin

Alternate: The Windshield Wiper

Dark Horse: Bestia (very dark, but endorsed but Guillermo del Toro)

2022 Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Music, Costumes, Sets, Lighting

I’m starting off this year with music, sets, costumes, lighting. The things that make a movie come to life, aurally and visually.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Don’t Look Up

  • Dune

  • Encanto

  • Parallel Mothers

  • The Power of the Dog

So I kind of think Hans Zimmer will win for Dune, which would make this his first Oscar since The Lion King, believe it or not. Which is of course another reason I can’t believe they kicked this category off the broadcast. These are big names! I suppose Encanto being a musical phenom could make that movie stand a chance as well.

Winner: Dune

Alternate: Encanto

Dark Horse: The Power of the Dog


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Be Alive,” King Richard

  • “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto

  • “Down to Joy,” Belfast

  • “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

  • “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

This category is overshadowed by the fact that the song that should be here and would win in a walk is so obviously “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” the biggest Disney hit since “A Whole New World,” (seriously!) and Disney didn’t even submit the song as a contender. Yeah. I once thought that would make Encanto’s other song win by default as a reward for Lin-Manuel Miranda but everyone seems totally indifferent to what’s nominated here and the whole thing may just default instead to the Bond song in the end. Which, I’m pretty sure no one remembers at all, but it would make Billie Eilish an Oscar winner, so.

Winner: “No Time to Die”

Alternate: “Dos Oruguitas”


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Dune

  • Nightmare Alley

  • The Power of the Dog

  • The Tragedy of Macbeth

  • West Side Story

Again, Dune is likely to prevail here, as the set design was some of the most memorable and it won the guild and BAFTA awards. Nightmare Alley could sneak in somewhere, but I think Dune is strong enough to sweep most of these craft categories.

Winner: Dune

Alternate: Nightmare Alley

Dark Horse: West Side Story


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Cruella

  • Cyrano

  • Dune

  • Nightmare Alley

  • West Side Story

This category pisses me off, as you know, because it’s likely to be Cruella, and it appears the only reason this one wasn’t kicked off the show like the others is because a Disney movie is in contention to win this. Is it really more important than production design? Than score? No? Didn’t think so. Fuck ABC.

Winner: Cruella

Alternate: Nightmare Alley


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Dune

  • Nightmare Alley

  • The Power of the Dog

  • The Tragedy of Macbeth

  • West Side Story

Dune won the ASC and BAFTA and stands poised to make a near clean sweep of the techs, minus costumes. I thought Power of the Dog might have a shot here, but with the movie having cratered with the guilds so much, it’s hard to see how this one doesn’t go to Dune as well.

Winner: Dune

Alternate: The Power of the Dog

Dark Horse: West Side Story (should have gotten more attention for its cinematography)