2016 SAG TV Predictions

Time now for the SAG predictions on the TV side. I make no claims to be an expert on this one though. From what I can tell, SAG likes to reward veterans above all else (the Downton Abbey cast has won ensemble the last two years in a row), so my picks here are mostly going to reflect that.

BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE

  • The Big Bang Theory
  • Key & Peele
  • Modern Family
  • Orange is the New Black
  • Transparent
  • Veep

My best guess here would be the cast of Veep, since it's been on a roll with industry awards in the last year, and with four seasons under its belt, I suppose they ought to count as being a veteran cast by now. But Modern Family could always win again, or Orange as well. I would say it's a three-way toss-up in this category.

Winner: Veep

Alternate: Modern Family

Dark Horse: Orange is the New Black

BEST COMEDY ACTOR

  • Ty Burrell, Modern Family
  • Louis C.K., Louie
  • William H. Macy, Shameless
  • Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
  • Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Everyone in this category can rightfully be described as a veteran, so it's kind of another toss-up. But Tambor has won so many of these lately, so I'd say it's SAG's turn to pick him.

Winner: Jeffrey Tambor

Alternate: Ty Burrell

Dark Horse: William H. Macy

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS

  • Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
  • Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
  • Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
  • Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

I really have no clue on this one. Julia's won it, Uzo won it last year- could it be Amy's turn, as her last chance to win for Parks? It's just as likely one of those other two repeats, frankly.

Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Alternate: Uzo Aduba

Dark Horse: Amy Poehler

BEST DRAMA ENSEMBLE

  • Downton Abbey
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland
  • House of Cards
  • Mad Men

I'm going with Game of Thrones after its Emmy wins, but don't count out Downton Abbey or even Mad Men for its last season.

Winner: Game of Thrones

Alternate: Downton Abbey

Dark Horse: Mad Men

BEST DRAMA ACTOR

  • Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
  • Jon Hamm, Mad Men
  • Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
  • Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
  • Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

After his Emmy and Globe wins, I think Jon Hamm completes the trifecta for the final season of Mad Men with a SAG win here.

Winner: Jon Hamm

Alternate: Kevin Spacey

Dark Horse: Peter Dinklage

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS

  • Claire Danes, Homeland
  • Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
  • Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
  • Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
  • Robin Wright, House of Cards

Viola won it last year, so I'm gonna go with Maggie Smith, believe it or not. One more for the grand dame of Downton.

Winner: Maggie Smith

Alternate: Viola Davis

Dark Horse: Claire Danes

BEST MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR

  • Idris Elba, Luther
  • Ben Kingsley, Tut
  • Ray Liotta, Texas Rising
  • Bill Murray, A Very Murray Christmas
  • Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall

I'm picking Elba, since he won't win for Beasts of No Nation on the film side. But Rylance has a shot here too.

Winner: Idris Elba

Alternate: Mark Rylance

Dark Horse: Bill Murray

BEST MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTRESS

  • Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
  • Queen Latifah, Bessie
  • Christina Ricci, The Lizzie Borden Chronicles
  • Susan Sarandon, The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe
  • Kristen Wiig, The Spoils Before Dying

Based on the buzz for these movies/series alone, I would think Latifah would take this, so there you go.

Winner: Queen Latifah

Alternate: Kristen Wiig 

Abe Vigoda 1921-2016

Abe Vigoda, longtime veteran actor best known for his role as Detective Sgt. Phil Fish on the 1970's sitcom Barney Miller, passed away at 94. Vigoda was also known as Tessio in the Godfather movies, but often as the subject of a decades long running gag regarding mistaken reports of his death that first surfaced in the early 1980's. Vigoda made fun of it himself, often showing up on late night shows like Letterman and Conan to poke fun at his not yet dead status, and one of his more recent credits was a Super Bowl ad from 2010 with Betty White that mocked both actors' advanced ages. To me he's most known, strangely enough, as John Travolta's grumpy grandfather in the first Look Who's Talking, which I happened to have seen by sheer circumstance enough times to note it as my own personal connection to the actor everyone seemed to recognize from something.

Betty White/Abe Vigoda Snickers ad:

2016 Golden Globe TV Winner Predictions

Okay, so it's time for Globes predictions on the TV side. Here, the Hollywood Foreign Press is not worried about influencing anything or getting it "right," or all the considerations that come with their movie choices. They honestly just vote for what they love, so we have to try to discern their taste. That can be even harder, right? I mean, I don't know these people, but I do know what their trends have been, and what they tend to vote for on the TV side is new, new, new. First season shows, new phenomenons, they love that stuff and the show winner usually takes an acting award with it. They also like to spread the wealth a bit, so we have to figure out what combinations they're going to go with.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

  • Casual
  • Mozart in the Jungle
  • Silicon Valley
  • Transparent
  • Veep

I know I said new is the most important factor, which would lead us to Mozart in the Jungle, and that's possible. But I think Transparent is still a hot commodity and may take it for two years in a row. Casual's out because it got no acting nominations to go along with it.

Winner: Transparent

Alternate: Mozart in the Jungle

BEST COMEDY ACTOR

  • Aziz Ansari, Master of None
  • Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
  • Rob Lowe, The Grinder
  • Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk
  • Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

It's between the new guys, Bernal and Ansari. Master of None has gotten great acclaim and a lot of attention lately, so Ansari could happen, while Bernal is on a show they clearly liked because they nominated it in best series. For that reason I'm picking Bernal here.

Winner: Gael Garcia Bernal

Alternate: Aziz Ansari

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS

  • Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
  • Jamie Lee Curtis, Scream Queens
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
  • Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
  • Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

This is the year where they pick Dreyfus, because this is actually the award she hasn't won yet for that show, and the Globes finally nominated it in series. The corresponding show being nominated in series is usually the key to winning acting awards here. Rodriguez won it last year, but Jane the Virgin was also nominated and this year it's not, so I think they finally catch up with Julia.

Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Alternate: Lily Tomlin

BEST DRAMA SERIES

  • Empire
  • Game of Thrones
  • Mr. Robot
  • Narcos
  • Outlander

I'm choosing Outlander. The Globes love sexy, passionate dramas (see the win for The Affair last year), and the show got two actors nominated along with it, so I think they really like this one.

Winner: Outlander

Alternate: Mr. Robot (also two acting nominations)

Dark Horse: Narcos (this might be something that appeals to them strongly too)

BEST DRAMA ACTOR

  • Jon Hamm, Mad Men
  • Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
  • Wagner Moura, Narcos
  • Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
  • Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

I think Rami Malek has this locked up. Mr. Robot has gotten so much buzz lately and the Globes will want to be the first to reward the lead.

Winner: Rami Malek

Alternate: Wagner Moura (they do seem to like Narcos)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS

  • Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
  • Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
  • Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
  • Taraji P. Henson, Empire
  • Robin Wright, House of Cards

This is between the women whose shows are nominated, Balfe and Henson- and I think it's really close, but I'm gonna go with Henson here, only because I think they will choose the other Outlander actor they nominated to win with the show. I don't think they'd give Outlander three awards (although they could), and I may be choosing the wrong one, but I'm going with it anyway. I do feel a bit funny about this though, since they tend to have the show and lead win simultaneously. I may be making a mistake.

Winner: Taraji P. Henson

Alternate: Caitriona Balfe

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES

  • American Crime
  • American Horror Story: Hotel
  • Fargo
  • Flesh and Bone
  • Wolf Hall

I'm less versed in these categories, but I do think Fargo probably has the edge, due to the massive critical acclaim this season. It's the most hyped of these nominees and the Globes love hype.

Winner: Fargo

Alternate: Wolf Hall

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES ACTOR

  • Idris Elba, Luther
  • Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
  • David Oyelowo, Nightingale
  • Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
  • Patrick Wilson, Fargo

I'm torn on this one. If they pick Stallone for the Globe on the movie side, they may reward Rylance here on the TV side, especially because his show is nominated. On the other hand, Oscar Isaac was terrific in Show Me a Hero, and there's almost always one category where they pick someone whose show didn't make it into series, could this be the place? Ugh. I don't know what to do.

Winner: Oscar Isaac (this is a shot in the dark, just instinct)

Alternate: Mark Rylance

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES ACTRESS

  • Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
  • Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
  • Sarah Hay, Flesh and Bone
  • Felicity Huffman, American Crime
  • Queen Latifah, Bessie

Most people consider it a joke that they nominated Gaga for this, so I don't expect them to make themselves look even more foolish by picking her to win. I think it's Kirsten Dunst. They've been following her since she was a kid, Fargo is up for series and they'd like to give it to her as kind of a Claire Danes-esque win.

Winner: Kirsten Dunst

Alternate: Queen Latifah

BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
  • Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall
  • Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
  • Tobias Menzies, Outlander
  • Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Christian Slater could win this, since he's a big name and all, but I'm saying they'll go with Menzies, since they really went out of their way to nominate him in the first place. I think these guys were really struck by his performance (as they should be) and they're going to honor him and surprise everyone who's not paying attention to Outlander.

Winner: Tobias Menzies

Alternate: Christian Slater

BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
  • Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
  • Regina King, American Crime
  • Judith Light, Transparent
  • Maura Tierney, The Affair

I'm thinking maybe Regina King? American Crime is nominated and she's apparently the standout. But Uzo hasn't won this yet and she's won just about every other award for that role. Hmm.

Winner: Uzo Aduba

Alternate: Regina King

Dark Horse: Judith Light (her show is nominated and I'm the one who says it's winning again, so she could well go along with that this time instead of Tambor)