North Carolina Chooses 'Budapest'; Oklahoma and North Texas like 'Boyhood'

You thought we were done with these, right? Nope- still a handful of regional critics groups left to go, but they're getting slimmer. Hey, at least North Carolina did something super awesome in naming the ferocious Essie Davis Best Actress for The Babadook! Now that's what I'm talking about! I'll love these guys forever for that.

NORTH CAROLINA FILM CRITICS

Picture: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Director: Richard Linklator, Boyhood
Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Actress: Essie Davis, The Babadook
S. Actor: Edward Norton, Birdman
S. Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
O. Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
A. Screenplay: Guardians of the Galaxy
Foreign Film: Force Majeure
Animated: The Lego Movie
Documentary: Life Itself

OKLAHOMA CRITICS

These guys didn't do much worth noting, except name a couple of cute extra categories, like "not so worst" film (what the hell does that mean?) Chalk up another Boyhood win.

Best Picture - Boyhood
Best Actor – Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress – Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Best Animated Film – The LEGO Movie
Best Body of Work – Chris Miller & Phil Lord – The LEGO Movie & 22 Jump Street
Best Director – Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Documentary – Life Itself
Best First Feature – Nightcrawler
Best Foreign Language Film – Force Majeure
Best Guilty Pleasure – Edge of Tomorrow
Not So Obviously Worst Film – The Monuments Men
Obviously Worst Film – Transformers: Age of Extinction
Best Original Screenplay – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay – Gone Girl
Best Supporting Actor – Edward Norton, Birdman
Best Supporting Actress – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

NORTH TEXAS CRITICS

Meanwhile, the North Texas critics unsurprisingly went for Boyhood and other familiar winners- it's sort of interesting that Arquette and Simmons have nearly swept the supporting races, while there seems to be a whole lot less consensus in the lead acting categories. I wonder if there's a possibility for upsets there at the televised awards.

Picture: Boyhood
Director: Richard Linklator, Boyhood
Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Actress: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
S. Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
S. Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Cinematography: Interstellar
Animated: The Lego Movie
Documentary: Life Itself
Foreign: Ida
Ensemble: Birdman

PGA Nominees include 'American Sniper,' 'Nightcrawler,' snub 'Selma'

Well, the all important Producers Guild announced its ten feature nominees today, and boy is American Sniper coming on strong. The strongest late release of a Clint Eastwood movie since Letters From Iwo Jima I'd say. The big shock on the list is the absence of Selma, which has gotten totally skunked by the guilds so far. That's obviously not a good sign, but I still think it will get in at the Oscars (it's their kind of movie and the Academy was the only group to receive screeners), even if it manages a smaller than expected nominations haul.

Theatrical Feature

• American Sniper
• Birdman
• Boyhood
• Foxcatcher
• Gone Girl
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Nightcrawler
• The Theory of Everything
• Whiplash

Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6
• The Book of Life
• The Boxtrolls
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• The Lego Movie

Documentary Feature

• The Green Prince
• Life Itself
• Merchants of Doubt
• Particle Fever
• Virunga

The winner of the PGA is normally your Best Picture winner, even if the nominees usually miss by 1-2 movies. This year I think what'll happen is that Selma replaces Foxcatcher, and Nightcrawler misses out. Yes, Nightcrawler has done extremely well with the guilds, but there's always one that does that ends up missing in the end, and it's always a genre movie, pulpier than what the Academy likes. That could either be Nightcrawler or Gone Girl this time, but I still think Gone Girl's box office haul of $160 million will be rewarded in the end. And Bradley Cooper for Sniper looks likely to be in there for Best Actor more and more every day, but I can't figure out who to toss from the lineup. David Oyelowo may be the weakest, but we'll see this Friday morning who's still looking good for acting nominations when the BAFTA list is revealed. On a sidenote, it's interesting that the PGA snubbed supposed doc frontrunner Citizenfour altogether- I'm really thinking Life Itself is going to be the one that takes the Oscar in that category.

Art Directors Guild Nominates 'Inherent Vice,' 'Imitation Game,' 'Guardians'

The Art Directors Guild announced their nominees today for three different categories of film sets- period, fantasy and contemporary.

Period Film

• Inherent Vice
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• The Theory of Everything
• Unbroken

Fantasy Film

• Interstellar
• Into the Woods
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
• Guardians of the Galaxy
• Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Contemporary Film

• American Sniper
• Birdman
• Foxcatcher
• Gone Girl
• Nightcrawler

The most egregious snub here is Mr. Turner in period film. I'm sorry but do these people really not have enough respect for their own craft to just skip a film with some of the best production design of the year? Because that's the only thing that could explain it missing (and for Theory of Everything of all things, which used already existing locations? Seriously?) The production design branch of the Academy better rectify that error next week.

REVIEW: "Whiplash" (2014) Miles Teller, J.K. Simmons. Dir. Damien Chazelle

Whiplash is a solid gut punch of a movie- one that lays you flat on your back by the end of it, knocking the wind out of you as you wonder where the impact came from. 29-year-old director Damien Chazelle shows he can craft suspense scenes that'll rip your heart out of your throat in spite of the fact that this movie really could not be classified as a thriller in any way...but it goes to show you how something original can still be done with a style of filmmaking intended to upend convention.

Not that this is a perfect film. In fact for the first half of it, it's difficult to absorb, simply because the setup is so inherently ridiculous to take seriously. The Spectacular Now's Miles Teller is a 19-year-old college student at the fictional Shaffer Conservatory (clearly meant to model Juilliard) where he harbors dreams of becoming the next Charlie Parker. He's a talented drummer who's spotted in the film's opening scene by the belligerent Terence Fletcher (J.K. Simmons), the school's studio band conductor, who makes his living by turning his students into punching bags, berating them with homophobic, xenophobic, and personal insults (although the line is apparently drawn at racially insensitive remarks, since we never see him screaming at the African-American kids) supposedly meant to push them to reach their talent limit in a way no talk of "encouragement" ever could.

For quite a while I simply was unable to buy this premise. First of all, no instructor or teacher could ever get away with hurling verbal and physical abuse at their students- the classroom scenes seem ripped straight out of Full Metal Jacket, when Lee Ermey's drill instructor would scream obscenities at his cadets, charged with turning them into killers as a metaphor for what the military does to young men. That scenario made sense on the level of allegory- this situation seems designed simply to give J.K. Simmons a showcase to dominate the screen as a flashy, monstrous lunatic- which, to be fair he does extremely well (it's a powerful performance). But that setup simply doesn't work in every scenario. First of all, it's a music school that's not segregated by gender- why are there no girls in this class? My guess is because their presence would immediately pull you out of any reality this is meant to evoke- maybe you can buy Fletcher's antics in a room full of guys as some entertaining showboating ala Full Metal Jacket, but again, that was the very macho universe of the army, in a film that was making a point about the violent nature of man. This is a music college. It's not a male dominated world (we see girls walking around outside of Fletcher's classroom), the only reason they're not in the room is so we can buy the conceit- it's a fantasy.

But it's not supposed to be a fantasy- you're meant to buy into this story on a level of reality here. What ultimately saves the film for me is the unexpected turn that Simmons's character takes in the final third, a twist that does defy expectation and leads to a supremely intense, thrillingly climactic sequence that spotlights a feat of bravura directing more impressive than anything I've seen this year. Chazelle has a way of staging the jazz scenes that manages to make your pulse race in a way you could hardly imagine was possible watching people play big band music. Miles Teller is very good in this film as the determined young would-be prodigy (no matter that anyone actually wanting to be in Fletcher's class is itself a suspension of disbelief), and Simmons of course dazzles with a sly, menacing grin as he takes what could be a rote, one-dimensional character out of the realm of cliche and into something truly memorable by the movie's end. I'd say it's worth seeing both for him and for the technical achievement of a new director boldly introducing himself to audiences with a lot of pizzazz.

* * *

BOX OFFICE 1/02-1/04: 'Hobbit' Three-peats at #1 to open 2015

The Hobbit: BOFA has opened the New Year's box office with another reign at the top of the charts, following its predecessors, which also spent three weeks at No. 1. It came in with $21 million over the weekend, which is less than either of the previous films made on their respective third weekends, but enough to rule once more. Meanwhile, Unbroken and Into the Woods are having a parallel run, as Into the Woods turned out to have actually topped Unbroken last week and did so again this time, coming in with $19 million while Unbroken earned $18 million. The Disney musical now has $91 million in the pot, Unbroken $87 million, both successes, at least financially (awards hype for both has died down considerably due to mixed-negative reviews).

The first new release of the year was The Woman in Black 2 (above), which actually overperformed, coming in with $15 million, much to the surprise of everyone, including the studio. Horror fans are clearly starved for anything they can get, seeing as this cheapie sequel didn't have the first one's main attraction, Daniel Radcliffe in it. Night at the Museum rounded out the top five, dipping 29% for $14 million and a $137 million total, just about enough to break even with its budget.

Top 5:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies- $21.9 million
2. Into the Woods- $19 million
3. Unbroken- $18.4 million
4. The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death- $15 million
5. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb- $14.5 million

The more interesting box office news is what's happening in limited release these last holiday weeks, with The Imitation Game increasing its haul this weekend by 2% despite the theater count remaining flat (747) and making it to No. 7 with an outstanding $30 million dollar haul after only six weekends in limited release. It's now outgrossed all of the specialty releases of 2014 besides Grand Budapest Hotel, and should have along way to go with Oscar nominations right around the corner. American Sniper is also doing incredible business so far on just 4 screens, adding 640k for a $2 million total and set go wide on the 16th, and Selma also perked up some, bringing in $645k from 22 screens and set for wide release next weekend. Finally, the last release of 2014, A Most Violent Year (above), came out on New Year's Eve and did very well at 4 theaters, earning $188k- not bad for small film from a tiny studio (A24)- arthouse fans must have been paying attention to the reviews. Next week it's the previously mentioned wide release of Selma, along with Taken 3, the annual Liam Neeson winter actioner. See you then!

National Society of Film Critics Names Jean Luc-Godard's 'Goodbye to Language' Best of 2014

Well, I wanted something different. So, apparently did the National Society of Film Critics, the last most important critics group in the country, as they decided to choose something wildly unpredictable (possibly just for the sake of doing so, I suspect, since Godard's film has been very divisive with critics). With the New York, LA and National Board of Review already chimed in, the big four for critics awards are now complete (although there are still some regional players who haven't announced yet). With this set of winners though, the NSFC can be expected not to influence anything major this year in the Oscar race, but perhaps that's what they wanted.

• Picture: Goodbye to Language
• Director: Richard Linklator, Boyhood
• Actor: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
• Actress: Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night
• Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
• Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
• Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Non-Fiction Film: Citizenfour
• Cinematography: Mr. Turner

Oscar Roundup: Best Picture & Director Contenders

Now it's time to round up the very confusing options we have this year for Picture and Director. In some ways it seems like a wide open year with no clear frontrunner, yet in other ways it reminds me of 2011, when voters didn't love any of the nominees enough to prevent The Artist from sweeping everything as a kind of default, least disagreeable winner. This year, that option looks like Boyhood to me, but let's see where we end up.

BEST DIRECTOR

Oh boy. This category is the toughest to suss out. The directors branch of the Academy is the most idiosyncratic of the major branches and they tend not to pay any attention to things like precursors and buzz (not even the Directors Guild necessarily influences them). Yes, strong Best Picture contenders usually have their directors nominated as well, but there also tends to be out of left field moves no one saw coming, such as in 2012, when the branch snubbed the two people everyone thought were the only safe bets that year, Ben Affleck and Kathryn BIgelow, in favor of auteur choices Behn Zeitlin and Michael Haneke. This year looks to me like a potential shocker along those lines, because aside from two seemingly surefire nominees (you never know with this group), I don't really know who else will make it in.

The two locked in look like Richard Linklater for the Best Picture frontrunner Boyhood, and Alejandro Inarritu for Birdman, both seen as heavily artistic directorial achievements in line with what the branch tends to admire. After that it's tough. Many think Ava Duvernay is another lock for Selma, but I'm not so sure. The movie has gotten stellar reviews and many assume she will be nodded because she'd make history as the first black woman ever nominated in Director, but I do wonder if stats like making history hold much sway over this branch, which includes many foreign directors only concerned with the achievement at hand. Still, Duvernay is a member of the branch, so that would presumably work in her favor.

Then it's kind of a crapshoot. The Imitation Game is presumed to be a top 2-3 picture contender, which usually means the director gets in too, but the unknown Morten Tyldum hasn't been nominated in non-industry places like the Golden Globes or BFCA. We'll see if Bafta and the DGA go for him though- if they do it bolsters his chances. Then there's the respected David Fincher, a two-time nominee for Gone Girl, which was a huge hit this year, and Wes Anderson, never nominated but now up for the very popular Grand Budapest Hotel (but does this branch like his films at all?). Mike Leigh is a strong possibility I think, for Mr. Turner, even if the movie doesn't show up in many other above-the-line categories- he's enormously well respected within the branch, nominated twice before, and this film may be the pinnacle of his directing career. Finally, newbie Damien Chazelle directed Whiplash this year, which got great reviews, is reportedly loved by the Academy and would be a very Behn Zeitlin-esque nomination- but will they pull that same hat trick twice?

My predicted 5:

• Ava Duvernay, Selma
• Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
• Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
• Richard Linklater, Boyhood
• Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

I didn't even mention possible contenders Clint Eastwood for American Sniper (a veteran two time winner and four time nominee) and Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, but they're in there too. Basically I think this is the hardest category to predict this year and I fully expect to be wrong. I certainly don't feel strongly about anyone but Inarritu and Linklater (of course, watch them get snubbed now). We'll definitely know a little more when Bafta and the DGA weigh in here, but even then this branch can often go its own way. There's less suspense when it comes to the win- I don't see how anyone can take this away from Linklator and the 12-year project he accomplished.

BEST PICTURE

So now we come to the big prize. This is a very strange year, because most would argue it's a weaker year for movies, and in this case it's hard to predict what makes up a list of nine or ten nominees. It would certainly be a year like this one that argues for going back to only five, because even then it's hard to see what would ultimately make the cut this time. I'm just going to go ahead and lay out what I've predicted will get in, based on the various precursor noms given so far, even though we are missing two crucial ones in Bafta and the PGA- maybe I shouldn't predict before hearing a bit more from the industry, but oh well- here we go.

Predicted 9 in alphabetical order:

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

There's a couple of films that could slide in here, and to my surprise Nightcrawler is definitely an option. It could have enough passion to force the nominee count to ten, which would be the first time that's happened under the preferential ballot system they've been using for the last three years. The movie has defied all predictions and made a great showing all over the place, starting with the critics, then the NBR, AFI, and the ACE Eddies yesterday. Again, seeing if it shows up at Bafta and the PGA will be the real test, and at the expense of what movie. I think the weaker films on this list that could theoretically be knocked out are Sniper, Theory and Gone Girl, but I'd only give any of them the slightest chance to be snubbed. I actually feel better predicting the BP nominees than I do director at this point. And I suppose there's still a small chance that Unbroken could land a slot despite the bad reviews (box office helps sometimes), but as of now I think that's only a remote possibility. We'll see how close I am come Jan 15th- I actually predicted all the nominees last year, but given the uncertainty this year, I don't expect that to happen again. And for the win, well- I continue to think it's Boyhood unless/until another movie wins the top prize at a major guild. If something else wins the PGA, Bafta or even the Globe, I'll take it seriously, but right now it looks like this movie's going all the way.

Oscar Roundup: Best Actor & Actress Contenders

It's time now to round up the lead acting contenders, wherein as usual, the Best Actor category is totally overstuffed with worthy candidates while Best Actress can barely scrape together five nominees. Sad, but it's the same thing every year now, unfortunately.

BEST ACTOR

This race is stacked to the masses this year, with all kinds of great performances from actors. Still, there are those who've hit all the precursor nominations, and with their films following suit as strong Best Picture candidates, it seems unlikely that Michael Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne would miss out here. After them, we have Jake Gyllenhaal, who landed a Globe, SAG, and BFCA nod for Nightcrawler, a movie that has been looking stronger and stronger by the day. I wasn't convinced that he could happen here until Nightcrawler started to really materialize in strength from the industry, which it did today by scoring an ACE Eddie nomination from the powerful editors guild. I now think Jake is in.

Steve Carell was once thought to be a surefire nomination for his creepy performance in Foxcatcher, and he does still have a chance, having also gotten Globe and SAG nods. But the movie did poorly at the box office and was also surprisingly ignored by most critics awards. It just doesn't look to be the kind of film that voters will embrace, as they tend to like their villains gleefully over the top rather than genuinely unsettling (see Gyllenhaal). David Oyelowo has gotten very strong reviews as MLK in Selma, and I tend to think he will also make the cut with AMPAS for the film, which is still thought to be a major player. But coming up on the outside very strong (and right as people are voting) is Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, a two-time nominee already and in a film that's surging at just the right moment (these can often lead to surprise nominees, like Christian Bale last year, swept in on the late-breaking love for American Hustle).

On the very fringes is still beloved British character actor Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner, but I think these other heavy hitters are just too much for him to overcome. It's hard to say who's going to get squeezed out here though- most of these guys have a lot going for them, and honestly, even though some think he's a possible winner, I could see Eddie Redmayne missing in a huge shock, because Theory of Everything isn't as strong a BP contender as some of the others.

Predicted 5:

• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
• Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
• Michael Keaton, Birdman
• David Oyelowo, Selma
• Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

This is not set in stone. I desperately want to place Bradley Cooper in here somewhere, because I have a strong feeling he's going to get in, but I just don't know who he'd push out. Oyelowo? Redmayne? Gyllenhaal? Could even Keaton or Cumberbatch miss? Unlikely, but when you follow the strength of the BP nominees you tend to be right- so, if Cooper does make it I think it's more likely at the expense of Oyelowo or Gyllenhaal. It's also wide open for the win here- Keaton is the critics favorite, Redmayne delivers a Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot kind of performance (not as good, imo), and Cumberbatch is in a strong BP contender that's tearing up the box office right now. Too close to call.

BEST ACTRESS

This is much easier. There's been four locks all season long, and a search for who might make it into fifth place, not because there are so many options, but so few. The locks are Felicity Jones, Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon. That open slot is likely between Jennifer Aniston and Amy Adams, with only a fringe contender like Marion Cotillard as a remote possibility, after having been boosted by critics awards. But her film wasn't even shortlisted as a Foreign Language contender, so I don't think there's any way enough voters see Two Days, One Night (although, who knows- in a year like this she may manage it).

Aniston got Globe, SAG and BFCA nods based on a heavy publicity campaign and name recognition alone (no one has seen that movie either). Adams got a Globe nod and has Harvey Weinstein behind her film, which didn't do well at the box office- but she is a five time nominee and Academy favorite nonetheless. I don't know- I was blind to the Aniston thing for a long time, but she is popular and publicizing herself to no end...I guess I'll have to fall in line with it.

Predicted 5:

• Jennifer Aniston, Cake
• Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore, Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon, Wild

That's probably the lineup. Julianne Moore has been locked in for the win for quite some time, but there is zero enthusiasm for the film or her performance. It's an overdue career award only, which would normally leave room for an upset and if there was anyone in this lineup who had a passion vote behind them, they'd win. But I don't know who that is among this group of actresses, except, I hate to say it but...Aniston? The campaigning is out of control for her- if she gets in, she's going for the win, and hard. As insane as it sounds, in a year this weak, it's a very real (and very scary) possibility. Come  back tomorrow for the Best Picture/Best Director roundup.

2014 ACE Eddie Nominees

The second guild after SAG has weighed in, and this is an important one. The editor's guild nearly always has the eventual Best Picture winner in their nominees. The last time a movie won BP without an ACE nomination was 1989's Driving Miss Daisy, and the editors have a big say over the BP favorites.

Best Edited Feature Film (Drama)

• American Sniper
• Boyhood
• Gone Girl
• The Imitation Game
• Nightcrawler
• Whiplash

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy/Musical)

• Birdman
• Guardians of the Galaxy
• Into the Woods
• Inherent Vice
• The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Edited Animated Feature Film

• Big Hero 6
• The Boxtrolls
• The Lego Movie

Best Edited Documentary Feature

• Citizenfour
• Finding Vivian Maier
• Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

Given the fact that there was an actual tie for Drama nominees here, I'd say that does not bode well at all for any movie that missed the cut. Selma in particular looks to be in trouble, as does Unbroken. On the other hand, American Sniper is coming up fast- this is a huge hint that the industry has taken to Clint Eastwood's film, and with late reports that voters are loving it, coupled with its huge box office in limited release, I'd say that now looks like a serious threat to take the ninth slot in Best Picture (especially when voting is happening as we speak). This also forces Nightcrawler into that conversation- that movie has been sneaking in everywhere, but now that it managed an Eddie nom over the likes of Selma is really has to be taken seriously as well.

Oscar Roundup: Best Supporting Actor/Actress Contenders

Okay, with Oscar nominations coming in just two weeks, it's time to do some roundups of potential contenders for the bigger categories this year. In fact, ballots are in Academy voter's hands right now, and the deadline for turning them in is next Thursday, so we're going to start examining who's in, who's out and who seems to be coming up fast in this crucial voting period, so stay with me as we start with the supporting acting races.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Given the essential precursor nominations- the Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice awards, there are actually four women who've gotten every single one. That's Patricia Arquette for Boyhood, Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game, Emma Stone for Birdman and Meryl Streep for Into the Woods. Normally, hitting those three groups means you're close to a shoo-in for a nomination, but there have been surprises in the past. These supporting nominations can often ride the coattails of the film's strength overall, and given that Boyhood, Birdman and Imitation Game are all thought to be very strong with the Academy, Streep's nomination here looks like the weakest.

On the other hand, she's Meryl Streep and to be quite honest with you, in my opinion that's the only reason she's getting any attention at all for thi films. Which is why I don't think she's impervious to a snub despite the precursor support. The movie has no critics awards love, not even for her alone, and Disney has often been a very weak campaigner for their films in the past (last year she had Harvey Weinstein, the Oscar whisperer behind her nod for August: Osage County). If Streep doesn't land a Bafta nomination next week (the last precursor and second in importance to SAG for acting nominations) I'd say there's every chance she could be overlooked this time for someone else.

In that case, who takes her place? Well, there are several options here. Jessica Chastain got a Globe and BFCA nom for A Most Violent Year, but the film is not considered a heavy Oscar contender and there's a question of how many voters will see it. Tilda Swinton is a real wild card choice for Snowpiercer, having gotten some obscure critical love for it, but again, faces the challenge of having her film seen (pure passion votes could help her though). Laura Dern, despite having not gotten any precursor support, still seems like a very viable option to me thanks to her friends in the Academy and the benefit of being in a film (Wild) that will get seen, because of Reese Witherspoon's impending lead nomination. Rene Russo could also surprise, given the fact that Nightcrawler is clearly very popular and probably getting more seen than some of these other films. And finally, there's Carmen Ejogo, a British actress who plays Coretta Scott King in Selma, a film thought to be a major contender- her only drawback is that she's completely unknown and with a smallish role.

So here's who I'm thinking gets in:

• Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
• Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone, Birdman
• Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

In spite of my doubts on Streep, I'm still too chicken not to predict her right now. If she does miss the Bafta nod, I'd probably replace her with Dern in the final lineup. And for the win, I do think Arquette has it locked up already, I can't see anyone else winning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category was seen as being very weak this year, but still seems to have four for sure nominations. That's Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo and J.K. Simmons. They've all hit the necessary precursors, and there's so little consensus on who else delivered an outstanding supporting male performance this year that I can't imagine any of them not making the cut.

But there does need to be five, and the nod is likely to come from these contenders. Tom Wilkinson has a flashy role as LBJ in Selma, and he's a respected veteran actor, there's a chance he'd get in. And then there's Robert Duvall for The Judge, which was a dreadfully reviewed movie and not a hit at the box office either, but as the respected longtime vet that he is, he did manage a Globe and SAG nod for the part, so frankly I think he could easily make the cut here based on his name alone. Outside shots are Josh Brolin for Inherent Vice (not a well-received film but occasionally scene-stealing actors from PTA movies can surprise), and Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes (also not a popular or warmly received movie, but Waltz is a two-time winner and Academy favorite with a big, flashy role and Weinstein behind the film).

Who I predict:

• Robert Duvall, The Judge
• Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
• Edward Norton, Birdman
• Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Yes, I'm playing it safe, although Wilkinson could easily sneak in, or Waltz. Like in Supporting Actress, Simmons has this thing locked up for Whiplash, the only chance at a possible upset is Norton in Birdman. Check back in tomorrow for the lead acting contenders.

Happy New Year

Welcome to 2015 everybody! To help ring in the new year, I'm recommending ten movies from one of my favorite genres- musicals. Musicals aren't for everyone, but if you love them, you really love them, and they're a perfect way to start fresh and put you in the right mood for a brand new 2015. Head to the Movies for Every Month page to read more about why musicals are a great way to ring in the new year, and click here to check out my ten musical picks (now with full trailers) for the month of January- it includes old classics, concert documentaries, modern day musicals...everything you need to start the year off right. Happy movie watching!

Movie of the Day: "Silver Linings Playbook" (2012)

On this New Year's Eve, I'm recommending a more recent film that takes place during the holiday season, culminating in a big New Year's Eve dance off for a happy ending. This movie stars Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence (in her Oscar-winning role) as two outsiders who appear a little bit crazy to other people, but find a kindred spirit in each other as they start to fall in love. This movie is a bit of a spin on an old-fashioned romantic comedy actually, or the closest thing they make to it nowadays. It also tries to say that we're all a little bit crazy on the inside, but it's a sweet, funny, well-acted romp- it doesn't really go deeper than that but sometimes that's enough. Happy New Year, everyone!

Trailer: