2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Five: Best Picture and Best Director

Alright, so here we come now to the moment of truth. And it seems to be a fight to the finish, depending on whether or not you trust the guilds. I guess this year will be the ultimate test of that PGA+SAG+DGA precursor combo. It hasn't failed since since 1995, the first year it was put in place. If it does now, it will probably never be all that reliable again.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood
  • Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
  • Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

This is the one that I may have to flip a coin on. It's Inarritu or Linklater, and I really think it's a 50/50 chance on which one of them gets it. The question is whether it's wise to predict a Picture/Director split this year. The thing about splits is that for the last two years when there WAS a split, it happened all season long. Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for Director, so the Argo year it had to split (it probably wouldn't have had he been nominated). Then last year, all throughout awards season it was Gravity's Alfonso Cuaron for director, and 12 Years a Slave in Picture. It happened at the Globes, BFCA, Baftas and finally the Oscars too.

This year that hasn't happened once. It's been either Boyhood/Linklater or Birdman/Inarritu. Both films seem married to their directors, so logic tells me that whatever movie I choose in Picture I also have to go for in Director. Which is why I'm choosing Inarritu, even though I think if the voters are thinking about splitting it on purpose, they will probably choose Linklater here and Birdman in Picture. You just have to blindly vote on this one- and I'm basically putting my faith in the guilds' choice. The guilds are the industry, and even though not every guild member is an Academy member, almost every Academy member is a guild member. I'm going with Birdman, but know that it really is a coin toss between the two.

Winner: Alejandro Inarritu
Alternate: Richard Linklater

BEST PICTURE

  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Selma
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash

Well, I kind of just told you my choice, and I'm sticking with Birdman, even though a lot of people are still predicting Boyhood, both in Picture and Director. All my reasoning is tied into that PGA+SAG+DGA win. That's it. I'm choosing to go with the guilds here, because the truth is, to me Birdman seems like the darkest, strangest, most bizarre Best Picture winner in the history of the Academy Awards. I was shocked when it won the PGA and I continue to be shocked that they actually like it so much. I never saw that coming, and the only thing that makes sense about it winning is the fact that it's about actors and Hollywood, which of course is a subject Hollywood never tires of. Does that make me nervous about picking it? Yeah, it does. It could well be Boyhood, but the only industry support Boyhood has is that BAFTA win (forget the Globes and critics, they're not the industry), which I don't think is stronger than all the guild support Birdman has received.

That's really the question here. Does BAFTA override the industry guilds or not? The truth is we don't know, because this is the first time (since BAFTA changed all its rules and voting processes six years ago to exactly match the Academy's) that they've split. Since 2009, BAFTA and the Oscars have matched up in Best Picture every single time, along with at least one of those major guilds, like PGA and DGA. But now for the first time ever, they've split, and no one really knows if that's significant or not. Obviously, after this year we will. If Boyhood pulls it off we'll know that BAFTA really is that important and never to question how predictive that organization is again. But if Birdman prevails, the old rules are still in place, with the three biggest guilds having the most predictive power combined.

I think that's why some are thinking a split will occur, to somehow verify both BAFTA and the guild's choices- to me that would make the most sense in a Linklater/Birdman scenario. But it may even go the other way, with Inarritu for Director while Boyhood takes Picture. If it does end up Boyhood for both, obviously I'm screwed, because that may mean that some of my other picks get turned around (like Keaton winning because Birdman isn't, or Grand Budapest prevailing in Screenplay for the same reason, etc). So, I'm not very confident about all this at all, but know that how I'm justifying it is to simply place all my eggs in that guild basket, because that's how it has been going down for the last 20 years, and for right now I'm just going to stick with what I know. If I do horribly, I'll know to change it up next time around. Good luck, everybody!

Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood
Dark Horse: The Grand Budapest Hotel (that's unlikely, but I suppose there's an outside chance where something wacky happens with the preferential ballot and a dark horse contender comes up the middle and takes it from both of them. I assume that Budapest is the third most popular movie with all the nominations it got, so that would probably be the one to take it in a massive upset, if anything could)

TRAILER: "Welcome to Me"

Kristen Wiig brings what looks like one of her SNL characters to the screen in this comedy-drama about a woman with Borderline Personality Disorder who wins the lottery and decides to host her own talk show. I don't know about the premise of this- Wiig is funny, but does this look like another one of those "mental illness is so cute and funny" movies to anyone else? It looks like it's got one foot set in reality, when maybe it should just go all out with the nuttiness. But it did get good reviews at Toronto last year, so who knows. It's coming out May 1st.

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Four: Acting

Okay, so it's time to deal with my least favorite categories this year, because they're all so boring and/or undeserving, and those are the big acting awards. These are the ones that everybody waits for on the show, but this time around, they're going to be a letdown, so I'm letting you know that in advance. Let's get this over with.

BEST ACTOR

  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Well, I'd be pretty stupid not to predict the Globe, SAG and Bafta winner to also take the Oscar, so...I guess it's Redmayne. But I HATE this win, and I really wouldn't care who of the other guys upset him, as long as one of them did, so I'm rooting for anyone else. Keaton still has the best chance of doing it, but Bradley Cooper might be able to spoil (he wasn't nominated at any of the precursors, so he hasn't competed against the other two yet). I just cannot stand that they are falling for Oscar Bait 101: Real Life Person With a Disability, but from the most mediocre of mediocre movies to come out last year. I said it before and I will say it again- Daniel Day-Lewis did this already, he did it 25 years ago and he did it a million times better, in a much better film. If you want to see the real thing and not the poor man's imitation of a physical transformation performance, go back and watch My Left Foot. There's no reason for anyone to watch The Theory of Everything. Let's just hope that if Birdman is strong enough for Best Picture, that means that Keaton is going along for the ride.

Winner: Eddie Redmayne
Alternate: Michael Keaton
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper

BEST ACTRESS

  • Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

This one I just don't have much to say. It's Julianne Moore, it's a terrible movie, not a terrific performance, but it's a career award and certainly a deserving one at that, so...congratulations to her, right? If I really thought any of the performances this year were that much better I'd complain more. Of these my favorite is actually Cotillard, but she does already have an Oscar, so I can't get too worked up. The others are all good to fair, but none are all that electric, so it's just a dull category, I'm sorry to say.

Winner: Julianne Moore
Alternate: none

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Simmons, obviously. He won all the precursors, he's winning, it's over. He's also the best, although I did like Hawke, Norton and Ruffalo too. But what can I say? He was great, so good for him.

Winner: J.K. Simmons
Alternate: none

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Laura Dern, Wild
  • Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone, Birdman
  • Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

This one is also signed and delivered for Arquette, and frankly I do NOT think she deserves this, but like in Actress, I don't know who else I'd pick. From this group anyway. They're all good, but no one really stands out that much. Still, Arquette is winning this award because she aged 12 years on film, which literally any other actress could have done, and to be quite honest, some of her scenes are actually badly acted (there's one scene where she yells at her daughter getting out of the car in Boyhood that I cringed while watching). But it's a done deal, so there you go.

Winner: Patricia Arquette
Alternate: none

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Three: Writing, Editing, Foreign, Animated & Documentary

Today we're moving up to the big Best PIcture bellwether categories of writing and editing, as well as foreign language, animated and documentary features to consider.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • Foxcatcher
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Nightcrawler

This is a bit tough. It's Birdman versus Budapest, and they each have two precursors. Birdman won the Globe and Critics Choice, while Budapest took the BAFTA and WGA (for which Birdman wasn't eligible). Normally, this is tied into Best PIcture, so for that reason I'm saying Birdman will win, because that's my Picture prediction as well. If Birdman's winning Picture, I think it also has to take at least a writing or an acting award- and it looks like Keaton won't prevail in Actor, so I think this is the one. In fact, I would say that if Budapest does win this category, it may signal an upset coming later in the night, either in Best Picture or Best Actor.

Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dark Horse: Boyhood (it didn't win any screenplay prizes this season, but this is another one where if you're predicting it for Picture, it'd be wise to maybe also predict it here, since Best Picture and the writing awards are so often linked).

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • American Sniper
  • The Imitation Game
  • Inherent Vice
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash

I'm predicting The Imitation Game to win this, because it won the WGA and the Scripter precursors. It lost the BAFTA to Theory of Everything, but the BAFTA as a whole liked that movie much better than Imitation Game, even giving it a director nomination (I suspect that's because the Brits aren't shamed by the Stephen Hawking movie the way they are by what they did to their other British hero Alan Turing). Anyway, the Academy preferred Imitation to Theory, giving it eight nominations including director Morten Tyldum (who also got the DGA nod). It's a possibility that Whiplash could win this, since it was frauded into the category (it is not an adapted script, it's original and competed in original at every other awards ceremony), but I'm just going to stick with the movie that has the director nomination, since that nearly always takes it.

Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash

EDITING

  • American Sniper
  • Boyhood
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Whiplash

Okay, so I think this is Boyhood's to lose, because it's a Best Picture favorite, which this usually goes to, plus the whole editing down twelve years of footage thing (and it won the guild award). But Whiplash has a shot, because it won the Bafta, and it has an amazingly edited finale that people may remember when voting for this. It's close, but I already predicted any extra Whiplash support to materialize in Sound, so I'm sticking with Boyhood on this one.

Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: Whiplash

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

  • Ida (Poland)
  • Leviathan (Russia)
  • Timbuktu (Mauritania)
  • Tangerines (Georgia)
  • Wild Tales (Argentina)

You know, I was all set to choose Ida here, since it won the Bafta and is the most acclaimed film, but lately I keep hearing that Wild Tales is the biggest crowd pleaser and much more accessible movie, and it just reminds me of when Argentina's The Secret in Their Eyes beat the very cold (and also black and white) The White Ribbon in this category five years ago. I'm gonna go with my gut here and predict Wild Tales even though I didn't get to see it yet. This is risky (and probably stupid) though, so just know that I'm going against the grain, because Ida is the frontrunner.

Winner: Wild Tales
Alternate: Ida
Dark Horse: Leviathan (it won the Globe, and it could win the Oscar if they want to make a political statement against Russia)

ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Big Hero 6
  • The Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Song of the Sea
  • The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

I thought this would be a close race between Big Hero 6 and Dragon 2, but ever since Dragon took the Globe and won all those Annie awards it seems to be the solid frontrunner. In fact, no other awards body has chosen a different movie because most of them went with the non-nominated Lego Movie. So Dragon it is (and it's a good choice, because it's a very good movie and the first one was snubbed back in '09). On the other hand, Big Hero 6 has won guild awards from the visual effects and sound branches, and you never want to count out a Disney movie...I'm going with Dragon because I think it's the better movie, but I could see Big Hero 6 pulling off an upset here.

Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6
Dark Horse: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (unlikely, but since Studio Ghibli has won this before, I'd give it about a 5% chance)

DOCUMENTARY

  • Citizenfour
  • Virunga
  • Last Days in Vietnam
  • Finding Vivian Maier
  • The Salt of the Earth

Laura Poitras seems to have it in the bag, having won the DGA and BAFTA for Citizenfour. The truth is, without an art/music nominee in the group (which the non-nominated Roger Ebert film Life Itself would have been) I just think the Academy will vote for the one with the most buzz here, and that's Citizenfour.

Winner: Citizenfour
Alternate: Virunga (the Netflix doc has been gaining steam lately with a lot of press from people like Bill Clinton and it is heartbreaking- a vote for this film would really feel like you're contributing to a cause, I just wonder if enough voters will have seen it)