TEASER: "Love and Mercy"

The teaser for this Brian Wilson biopic makes you want to see it because of the music alone (how could it not?), but luckily the film is actually supposed to be quite good. It premiered at Toronto last year to rave reviews for Paul Dano's performance (surprisingly enough) as the tortured Beach Boy, who's also played by John Cusack in his later years. I know those two don't look anything alike, but I guess we just have to suspend disbelief on that one. It comes out June 5th.

Blu-Ray Pick of the Week: "Whiplash" (2014)

This week's blu-ray choice is a newly minted Oscar winner, having just won Supporting Actor, Editing and Sound Mixing at the Academy Awards on Sunday. I actually wasn't the biggest fan of this movie, even though Simmons is great and it gets your heart pounding like crazy, which is an achievement for a film about jazz music, right? But many who did see it really loved it, which is how such a tiny film won 3 Oscars in the first place. As far as general audiences go however, hardly anyone saw this movie in theaters, so now might be the time to check it out- it's quite an adrenaline rush.

Trailer:

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Five: Best Picture and Best Director

Alright, so here we come now to the moment of truth. And it seems to be a fight to the finish, depending on whether or not you trust the guilds. I guess this year will be the ultimate test of that PGA+SAG+DGA precursor combo. It hasn't failed since since 1995, the first year it was put in place. If it does now, it will probably never be all that reliable again.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood
  • Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
  • Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

This is the one that I may have to flip a coin on. It's Inarritu or Linklater, and I really think it's a 50/50 chance on which one of them gets it. The question is whether it's wise to predict a Picture/Director split this year. The thing about splits is that for the last two years when there WAS a split, it happened all season long. Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for Director, so the Argo year it had to split (it probably wouldn't have had he been nominated). Then last year, all throughout awards season it was Gravity's Alfonso Cuaron for director, and 12 Years a Slave in Picture. It happened at the Globes, BFCA, Baftas and finally the Oscars too.

This year that hasn't happened once. It's been either Boyhood/Linklater or Birdman/Inarritu. Both films seem married to their directors, so logic tells me that whatever movie I choose in Picture I also have to go for in Director. Which is why I'm choosing Inarritu, even though I think if the voters are thinking about splitting it on purpose, they will probably choose Linklater here and Birdman in Picture. You just have to blindly vote on this one- and I'm basically putting my faith in the guilds' choice. The guilds are the industry, and even though not every guild member is an Academy member, almost every Academy member is a guild member. I'm going with Birdman, but know that it really is a coin toss between the two.

Winner: Alejandro Inarritu
Alternate: Richard Linklater

BEST PICTURE

  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Selma
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash

Well, I kind of just told you my choice, and I'm sticking with Birdman, even though a lot of people are still predicting Boyhood, both in Picture and Director. All my reasoning is tied into that PGA+SAG+DGA win. That's it. I'm choosing to go with the guilds here, because the truth is, to me Birdman seems like the darkest, strangest, most bizarre Best Picture winner in the history of the Academy Awards. I was shocked when it won the PGA and I continue to be shocked that they actually like it so much. I never saw that coming, and the only thing that makes sense about it winning is the fact that it's about actors and Hollywood, which of course is a subject Hollywood never tires of. Does that make me nervous about picking it? Yeah, it does. It could well be Boyhood, but the only industry support Boyhood has is that BAFTA win (forget the Globes and critics, they're not the industry), which I don't think is stronger than all the guild support Birdman has received.

That's really the question here. Does BAFTA override the industry guilds or not? The truth is we don't know, because this is the first time (since BAFTA changed all its rules and voting processes six years ago to exactly match the Academy's) that they've split. Since 2009, BAFTA and the Oscars have matched up in Best Picture every single time, along with at least one of those major guilds, like PGA and DGA. But now for the first time ever, they've split, and no one really knows if that's significant or not. Obviously, after this year we will. If Boyhood pulls it off we'll know that BAFTA really is that important and never to question how predictive that organization is again. But if Birdman prevails, the old rules are still in place, with the three biggest guilds having the most predictive power combined.

I think that's why some are thinking a split will occur, to somehow verify both BAFTA and the guild's choices- to me that would make the most sense in a Linklater/Birdman scenario. But it may even go the other way, with Inarritu for Director while Boyhood takes Picture. If it does end up Boyhood for both, obviously I'm screwed, because that may mean that some of my other picks get turned around (like Keaton winning because Birdman isn't, or Grand Budapest prevailing in Screenplay for the same reason, etc). So, I'm not very confident about all this at all, but know that how I'm justifying it is to simply place all my eggs in that guild basket, because that's how it has been going down for the last 20 years, and for right now I'm just going to stick with what I know. If I do horribly, I'll know to change it up next time around. Good luck, everybody!

Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood
Dark Horse: The Grand Budapest Hotel (that's unlikely, but I suppose there's an outside chance where something wacky happens with the preferential ballot and a dark horse contender comes up the middle and takes it from both of them. I assume that Budapest is the third most popular movie with all the nominations it got, so that would probably be the one to take it in a massive upset, if anything could)

TRAILER: "Welcome to Me"

Kristen Wiig brings what looks like one of her SNL characters to the screen in this comedy-drama about a woman with Borderline Personality Disorder who wins the lottery and decides to host her own talk show. I don't know about the premise of this- Wiig is funny, but does this look like another one of those "mental illness is so cute and funny" movies to anyone else? It looks like it's got one foot set in reality, when maybe it should just go all out with the nuttiness. But it did get good reviews at Toronto last year, so who knows. It's coming out May 1st.

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Four: Acting

Okay, so it's time to deal with my least favorite categories this year, because they're all so boring and/or undeserving, and those are the big acting awards. These are the ones that everybody waits for on the show, but this time around, they're going to be a letdown, so I'm letting you know that in advance. Let's get this over with.

BEST ACTOR

  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Well, I'd be pretty stupid not to predict the Globe, SAG and Bafta winner to also take the Oscar, so...I guess it's Redmayne. But I HATE this win, and I really wouldn't care who of the other guys upset him, as long as one of them did, so I'm rooting for anyone else. Keaton still has the best chance of doing it, but Bradley Cooper might be able to spoil (he wasn't nominated at any of the precursors, so he hasn't competed against the other two yet). I just cannot stand that they are falling for Oscar Bait 101: Real Life Person With a Disability, but from the most mediocre of mediocre movies to come out last year. I said it before and I will say it again- Daniel Day-Lewis did this already, he did it 25 years ago and he did it a million times better, in a much better film. If you want to see the real thing and not the poor man's imitation of a physical transformation performance, go back and watch My Left Foot. There's no reason for anyone to watch The Theory of Everything. Let's just hope that if Birdman is strong enough for Best Picture, that means that Keaton is going along for the ride.

Winner: Eddie Redmayne
Alternate: Michael Keaton
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper

BEST ACTRESS

  • Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

This one I just don't have much to say. It's Julianne Moore, it's a terrible movie, not a terrific performance, but it's a career award and certainly a deserving one at that, so...congratulations to her, right? If I really thought any of the performances this year were that much better I'd complain more. Of these my favorite is actually Cotillard, but she does already have an Oscar, so I can't get too worked up. The others are all good to fair, but none are all that electric, so it's just a dull category, I'm sorry to say.

Winner: Julianne Moore
Alternate: none

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Simmons, obviously. He won all the precursors, he's winning, it's over. He's also the best, although I did like Hawke, Norton and Ruffalo too. But what can I say? He was great, so good for him.

Winner: J.K. Simmons
Alternate: none

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Laura Dern, Wild
  • Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone, Birdman
  • Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

This one is also signed and delivered for Arquette, and frankly I do NOT think she deserves this, but like in Actress, I don't know who else I'd pick. From this group anyway. They're all good, but no one really stands out that much. Still, Arquette is winning this award because she aged 12 years on film, which literally any other actress could have done, and to be quite honest, some of her scenes are actually badly acted (there's one scene where she yells at her daughter getting out of the car in Boyhood that I cringed while watching). But it's a done deal, so there you go.

Winner: Patricia Arquette
Alternate: none