2017 Oscar Predictions, Part Three: Screenplays, Editing, Foreign, Animated and Documentary

Okay, moving on! Today we get to some slightly bigger categories, like the screenplays, plus foreign, animated and documentary films. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Kenneth Lonergan's script for 'Manchester By the Sea' has the edge in original

Kenneth Lonergan's script for 'Manchester By the Sea' has the edge in original

  • 20th Century Women
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • The Lobster
  • Manchester By the Sea

I think this belongs to Manchester By the Sea, but that’s just going off the bulk of the critics awards. The truth is Moonlight competed in original in several of the big precursors and won (like the WGA), while the Golden Globe actually went to La La Land. So with Moonlight over in Adapted, this is kind of a shot in the dark. But Manchester was highly praised for its screenplay, it won the BAFTA, and I don’t think the Academy will go with La La Land in this category, so…I’m sticking with that.

Winner: Manchester By the Sea

Alternate: La La Land

Dark Horse: Hell or High Water (also won quite a few critics prizes for this)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

'Moonlight' has a lock on adapted screenplay

'Moonlight' has a lock on adapted screenplay

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion
  • Moonlight

Now this is Moonlight’s all the way. It won the USC Scripter award, which has guaranteed adapted screenplay for several years now, and the WGA, even if it was in original there. Lion won the BAFTA though, so if anything could beat it, it’d be that, but I don’t think it will.

Winner: Moonlight

Alternate: Lion

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

'Zootopia' remains the strong frontrunner in animated

'Zootopia' remains the strong frontrunner in animated

  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Courgette
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia

Zootopia swept the Annies, won the Golden Globe and most of the precursors, although Kubo and the Two Strings made a strong showing with critics, and just won the BAFTA, surprisingly. But with the enormous box office success of Zootopia plus the fact that the content of the film makes it one of the strongest anti-Trump statements AMPAS can make, I think it will win for sure.

Winner: Zootopia

Alternate: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

'The Salesman' rides momentum

'The Salesman' rides momentum

  • Land of Mine
  • A Man Called Ove
  • The Salesman
  • Tanna
  • Toni Erdmann

This category got kind of upended after the muslim ban situation, when it looked like director Asghar Farhadi would be banned from entering the country for the ceremony. That immediately launched his film The Salesman into top contention to win this award, and rightfully so, to be honest. Farhadi will not be attending in protest now, but I still think his film will win. Toni Erdmann had won the majority of precursors here, but in truth Farhadi’s film is more accessible narratively, and with him being a past winner for 2011’s A Separation, I don’t see how he doesn’t win this, with the chance to make such a huge statement by giving it to him.

Winner: The Salesman

Alternate: Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY

'OJ' still has the edge

'OJ' still has the edge

  • 13th
  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • OJ: Made in America

OJ: Made in America is the frontrunner, having won almost all precursor awards, including the DGA and PGA documentary prize. But somehow I feel like this category isn’t necessarily sealed. This film is still facing the longstanding controversy over whether it should actually count as a movie or a television series, despite the fact that it was released in theaters briefly to qualify it for Oscar consideration. And Ava Duvernay has engaged in an enormous campaign for her film 13th, which just won the BAFTA. Meanwhile, I Am Not Your Negro has acquired major buzz and acclaim after being recently released in theaters. So, I’ll stick with OJ, but I’m feeling a little shaky about it.

Winner: OJ: Made in America

Alternate: 13th

Dark Horse: I Am Not Your Negro

BEST EDITING

'Arrival's best chance to win is in editing

'Arrival's best chance to win is in editing

  • Arrival
  • La La Land
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Moonlight

This is where I’m going to take a risk. Best Picture frontrunners are always formidable here, but for some reason I feel like La La Land won’t necessarily win this one. Hacksaw Ridge could be the likely alternative (and it won the BAFTA), but I also think Arrival is possible, since it won the ACE Eddie for drama feature, and it’s unlikely to win anywhere else (and they do like the movie, having given it eight nominations). I’m taking a huge risk and going with Arrival for this one. But I really think all three movies are in the running here.

Winner: Arrival

Alternate: La La Land

Dark Horse: Hacksaw Ridge

2017 Oscar Predictions, Part Two: Costumes, Sets, Music, Cinematography, Makeup

More techs! Today it’s time to suss out costumes, sets, makeup, music, etc. These can go to either the Best Picture frontrunner in a sweep or to a movie that stands out really spectacularly in its own category, no matter the quality of the overall film. Let’s dive in.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The cinematography of 'La La Land' remains the frontrunner 

The cinematography of 'La La Land' remains the frontrunner 

  • Arrival
  • Lion
  • La La Land
  • Moonlight
  • Silence

The ASC award (cinematography guild) went to Lion, but the BAFTA went to what’s thought to be the Oscar frontrunner, La La Land. I’d stick with La La Land on this one, for the beautiful shots and lighting.

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Lion

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The art direction for the epilogue is where the production design comes in

The art direction for the epilogue is where the production design comes in

  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Passengers

This used to be known as art direction, but it’s all about the sets. As I stated the other day, the guild went to three different films, but La La Land was among them, and BAFTA chose Fantastic Beasts, which certainly has the MOST set decoration. If they’re at all wanting to spread the wealth, I think Fantastic Beasts is where they would go in this category. But the safe bet is to stick with La La Land again.

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The recreation of Jackie Kennedy's wardrobe seem to set it apart from the rest

The recreation of Jackie Kennedy's wardrobe seem to set it apart from the rest

  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La Land

Now this is a category I think probably won’t go to La La Land, since contemporary costumes never win. The fanciest period costumes almost always take this award, no matter the quality of the overall movie. I think Jackie has the upper hand, having won the BAFTA and the Critics Choice award here.

Winner: Jackie

Alternate: Florence Foster Jenkins (the 1920’s outfits are pretty dazzling in this one)

BEST HAIRSTYLING & MAKEUP

'Star Trek Beyond' holds a claim to best makeup over 'Suicide Squad'

'Star Trek Beyond' holds a claim to best makeup over 'Suicide Squad'

  • A Man Called Ove
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • Suicide Squad

BAFTA’s no help on this one, since it went with Florence Foster Jenkins (which I really thought would get nominated here, to no avail), so I’m gonna say Star Trek. They won’t want to give Suicide Squad an Oscar, right? And most voters won’t have seen A Man Called Ove, because it’s a foreign language film (sad, but true).

Winner: Star Trek Beyond

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The 'La La Land' score has it in the bag

The 'La La Land' score has it in the bag

  • Jackie
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Passengers

This one is an easy win for La La Land, an original musical. It’s taken every precursor in this category.

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Lion

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

'City of Stars' leads the pack for original song

'City of Stars' leads the pack for original song

  • “The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
  • “Audition,” La La Land
  • “City of Stars,” La La Land
  • “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls

I’m guessing this is going to “City of Stars,” since it’s the main song of the movie. I do think the Moana song has a chance, since it’s Lin-Manuel Miranda, but as I learned with the Lady Gaga debacle last year, the voters don’t see who the singer is on the ballot and just check off the movie. So there you go. Too bad- the actual best song in this category is the Justin Timberlake Trolls one, as it’s the only popular hit of the bunch.

Winner: “City of Stars,” La La Land

Alternate: “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

 

2017 Oscar Predictions, Part One: Effects, Sound and Shorts

Alright, it’s prediction time! With the Oscars this Sunday, it’s time for my annual try at getting the picks right, which is always a hit and miss affair. Two years ago I did the best I’ve ever done, last year was dreadful. Hopefully it swings back around again. I feel pretty confident about La La Land taking the lion’s share this year, but as always it’s harder to pick out the places where they might go somewhere else. As usual, we start with the techs, and today that’s the sound and effects awards, along with the three short categories.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The visuals in 'The Jungle Book' have secured the visual effects prize

The visuals in 'The Jungle Book' have secured the visual effects prize

  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Doctor Strange
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • The Jungle Book
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

This one is going to The Jungle Book, which has won the effects award just about everywhere, including BAFTA and the Visual Effects Society. It’s a pretty easy call.

Winner: The Jungle Book

BEST SOUND MIXING

Sound mixing always goes to a musical...

Sound mixing always goes to a musical...

  • 13 Hours
  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Ugh. Every year I bemoan the fact that they can’t just combine the two sound categories into one, and call it Best Sound. Come on, doesn’t that sound logical to everyone else? As it is, whenever there’s a musical nominated in the sound mixing category, it always wins, so it has to go to La La Land.

Winner: La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING

...while sound editing usually goes to an action movie

...while sound editing usually goes to an action movie

  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Sully

This one’s actually trickier. Normally the two sound awards go hand in hand, so this could easily be La La Land’s as well, but the sound editing award has split in the past, and when it does it usually goes to a big loud action movie if there is one. This time I think that’s Hacksaw Ridge, so I’m tempted to do the unwise thing here and predict a split.

Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Alternate: La La Land

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Syrian rescue workers in 'The White Helmets'

Syrian rescue workers in 'The White Helmets'

  • Extremis
  • 4.1 Miles
  • Joe’s Violin
  • Watani: My Homeland
  • The White Helmets

I haven’t seen any of the shorts this year, so I’m kinda flying blind. I’m going by subject matter only. And I think given what happened with the Syrian rescue workers who were the subject of The White Helmets, and the fact that they are now coming to the Oscars only after that awful travel ban was lifted, gives that film the upper hand (and rightfully so- statements need to be made this year).

Winner: The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

A conversation about immigration is the subject in 'Ennemis Interieurs'

A conversation about immigration is the subject in 'Ennemis Interieurs'

  • Ennemis Intérieurs
  • La Femme et le TGV
  • Silent Nights
  • Sing
  • Timecode

I’m totally in the dark on this one. Gonna go with Ennemis Interieurs, due to the fact that it’s about immigration in France, and the timeliness will give it the edge.

Winner: Ennemis Intérieurs

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Pixar's 'Piper' is the frontrunner

Pixar's 'Piper' is the frontrunner

  • Blind Vaysha
  • Borrowed Time
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  • Pearl
  • Piper

Disney/Pixar almost always rules the day here, so gonna have to go with Piper, although Pearl and Pear Cider and Cigarettes are highly acclaimed as well.

Winner: Piper

Alternate: Pear Cider and Cigarettes

John Hurt 1940-2017

The great John Hurt has passed away at the age of 77, after a two year battle with pancreatic cancer. A longtime character actor who appeared in hundreds of films over the years, there's a good chance you've seen in him in at least a handful of films you may not have even realized. Here's a partial list of all the movies he'd been in since his breakout supporting role in A Man for All Seasons in 1966: Midnight Express, Alien, The Elephant Man, Rob Roy, Contact, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Hellboy, The Proposition, V for Vendetta, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Only Lovers Left Alive, Snowpiercer, Jackie, and four films still to be released this year. He was nominated for Oscars for his roles in Midnight Express and The Elephant Man, and of course has one of cinema's all time great death scenes in Alien. I personally think his role as the eccentric billionaire in Contact is one of his most underrated. He was knighted by the Queen in 2015 and was made a Commander of the Order of the British Empire in 2004.