2016 Emmy Predictions, Part 4: Drama, Comedy, Limited, Variety and Reality Series

Okay, it's finally time for the series awards! I'm just going to go through every category, from the top two to the awards for variety, reality, etc. I don't really think there's a lot of suspense about most of the winners this year though.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

  • Black-ish
  • Master of None
  • Modern Family
  • Silicon Valley
  • Transparent
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  • Veep

Everyone seems to think this is a slam dunk for Veep, which leaves me somewhat out of the loop. I dumped the show last year and I likely won't be back, despite the pressure of all those reports that this season was it's "best EVER!!" Yeah, I don't care. It never rose above B-level for me, even at its best. So congratulations to the show and all, but it's just not my thing. I would much prefer for Silicon Valley to win this, or Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Actually, there are some other shows that I think should be nominated here that aren't, like You're the Worst, Catastrophe, Orange is the New Black (yup, I stick by the assertion that IS a black comedy) and even the long-running The Middle, which has never been recognized by the Emmys.  Nope, they've always opted for the much lesser Modern Family, which is kind of a crime, to be honest. But hey, at least Modern Family is no longer winning. Be thankful for small favors.

Winner: Veep

Alternate: none

DRAMA SERIES

  • The Americans
  • Better Call Saul
  • Downton Abbey
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland
  • House of Cards
  • Mr. Robot

So yeah, this is Game of Thrones again, and this time I really have no problem with it, because I think this last season might actually have been the show's best. I think of it as a makeup award for the win last year, which was its "overdue" honor. This time it's for the quality. I'm most psyched about The Americans' inclusion finally, which hopefully means it will stick around in the category and be able to pull off a win either next year or the year after, for the final season. There's hope. And Downton Abbey, Homeland and especially House of Cards have no business still being nominated over and over again. There's so many better shows they could choose from, like my personal faves Outlander and Happy Valley, but I'm sure many people would say something like The Leftovers as well. Maybe one of them can sneak in when Downton's gone next year.

Winner: Game of Thrones

Alternate: none

LIMITED SERIES

  • American Crime
  • Fargo
  • The Night Manager
  • The People v. O.J. Simpson
  • Roots

Now this is a terrific category. All of them are great picks (despite lesser enthusiasm on my part for Night Manager), and yet the winner here is so easy to predict. OJ Simpson takes it hands down, which is kinda sad because Fargo had such an amazing season (even though it really doesn't belong in the limited series category- this whole changing the cast every year thing is a huge cheat. The show is a drama series and should be competing as one, period).

Winner: The People v. O.J. Simpson

Alternate: Fargo

REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM

  • The Amazing Race
  • American Ninja Warrior
  • Dancing With the Stars
  • Project Runway
  • Top Chef
  • The Voice

Ugh. My total shot in the dark category. Well, Amazing Race tends to always take this, but The Voice did come in and win fairly recently, so maybe they've moved on? I'm gonna go with The Voice here.

Winner: The Voice

Alternate: The Amazing Race

Dark Horse: American Ninja Warrior (this show's definitely been gaining in buzz and viewers lately)

VARIETY TALK SERIES

  • Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee
  • Jimmy Kimmel Live!
  • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
  • The Late Late Show with James Corden
  • Real Time with Bill Maher
  • The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

I'm bitter about Sam Bee not being included here, but what's interesting about this category is that it's the first time in almost 15 years that a non-Comedy Central show will win it. I'm guessing this goes to John Oliver, because if we've learned anything about this one it's that Emmy voters like their variety talk to be politics oriented (and they will never, ever throw poor Bill Maher a bone). So I guess Oliver is the heir apparent, although if not him they could turn to Jimmy Fallon, whose broad popularity might lead them to think it's his turn to be recognized.

Winner: Last Week Tonight

Alternate: The Tonight Show

Dark Horse: The Late Late Show (if Carpool Karaoke could take it this far)

VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

  • Documentary Now
  • Drunk History
  • Inside Amy Schumer
  • Key and Peele
  • Portlandia
  • Saturday Night Live

Amy Schumer had her moment in the inaugural category last year, although that's obviously never stopped Emmy voters from going back to the well before. Still, with this having been Key and Peele's last season, I really hope they give them the recognition they deserve. And SNL is probably going to have to win this at some point, since it's a category that was pretty much invented by that show.

Winner: Key and Peele

Alternate: Inside Amy Schumer

Dark Horse: Saturday Night Live

 

2016 Emmy Predictions, Part 3: Acting in a Drama Series

Okay, here comes drama! This is kind of my favorite category because I feel like I watch so many more dramas than comedies overall, and this year in particular because some of my pet faves actually got in! But, as a predictor, I do have to go with the old repetition rule for the most part. Still, I think there's room for some new blood this year.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

  • Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
  • Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
  • Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
  • Matthew Rhys, The Americans
  • Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
  • Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Interestingly enough, aside from Bryan Cranston's Breaking Bad run, there hasn't actually been too many other repeaters in this category lately. But wisdom tells me it's probably going to be Kevin Spacey, because he hasn't won this yet (if that surprises you you're thinking of the Golden Globes and SAG awards he's already gotten for this role). It seems like it's his turn, although I wouldn't totally rule out Bob Odenkirk or even Rami Malek. I feel like this is a close race.

Winner: Kevin Spacey (gotta go with conventional wisdom)

Alternate: Bob Odenkirk (I bet he's next in line to win this after Spacey anyway)

Dark Horse: Rami Malek (the buzz for Mr. Robot is very high)

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

  • Claire Danes, Homeland
  • Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
  • Taraji P. Henson, Empire
  • Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
  • Keri Russell, The Americans
  • Robin Wright, House of Cards

You know that I SO wish Maslany could take this award, and once again I bemoan the fact that she finally starts getting nominated right as they change the voting system so that the episode submission tapes are now rendered effectively meaningless. If only she'd gotten in there one year earlier, this would be hers. But, seeing as it's mostly a popularity contest now, I guess it's Davis again. Look, her show is mediocre at best, so it's kind of a shame the repeat rule applies here, but they don't usually go backwards, so that rules out Danes. Robin Wright might have a shot, but I kinda think they check off Davis for this.

Winner: Viola Davis

Alternate: Robin Wright

Dark Horse: Tatiana Maslany (I still wish this could happen and it would if they only watched the tape)

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

  • Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
  • Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
  • Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
  • Michael Kelly, House of Cards
  • Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
  • Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Game of Thrones is winning in Drama Series again, so that means it takes one or two actors along with it. Peter Dinklage has won twice, but I think he gets his third as the face of the show. At least he had more screentime this season than what he won for last year. Kit Harington is a possibility too, but I'm surprised he made it in in the first place. The "is Jon Snow dead?" buzz really carried him a long way. 

Winner: Peter Dinklage

Alternate: Kit Harington

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

  • Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
  • Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
  • Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
  • Maura Tierney, The Affair
  • Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
  • Constance Zimmer, UnREAL

This is probably my favorite category just based on the fact that Tierney and Zimmer got in as the sole representatives for their series, so it proves somebody was really watching those shows. I really don't want to go with Maggie Smith again, but this was the last season of Downton and it's the final chance to reward the dame once more- are they going to overlook that, even though she's more than gotten her due from them? Ugh. Not sure what to do here. My gut says Smith, but man do I want Headey to take this. She's so overdue, and in my opinion, really the one actor besides Dinklage who so deserves an Emmy for Thrones, especially this season. I'd love to see them rewarded together, but will the three Thrones women cancel each other out?

Winner: Lena Headey (this might be foolish but I'm taking the shot, assuming expanded voting rules will help her out)

Alternate: Maggie Smith

Dark Horse: Constance Zimmer (she might be enough of a scene stealer to sneak in amongst a split vote)

2016 Emmy Predictions, Part 2: Acting in a Comedy Series

Okay, time for the comedy acting. These tend to go for a lot of repeat winners down the line, so I think this is going to be more boring to predict than the movie/mini ones. Hopefully there's something of a surprise in there along the way.

ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

  • Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
  • Aziz Ansari, Master of None
  • Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth
  • William H. Macy, Shameless
  • Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley
  • Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Tambor was the big winner everywhere last year, but the second season of Transparent didn't seem to have as much buzz, even if it was just as good. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't win again, but I could see someone like Anthony Anderson, whose show had a very attention grabbing season, come in from the outside. Or even Ansari, for the buzz on Master of None.

Winner: Anthony Anderson (something tells me the expanded voting body will gravitate to the more populist show this time)

Alternate: Jeffrey Tambor (could just as easily repeat and it might be unwise on my part to not predict him, but it's the only chance I'm taking in the comedy categories)

Dark Horse: Aziz Ansari (he could definitely sneak in here)

ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

  • Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
  • Laurie Metcalf, Getting On
  • Tracee Ellis-Ross, Black-ish
  • Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
  • Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Unbelievably, I do think that Julia Louis-Dreyfus is going to win her fifth consecutive Emmy for this role. The show is the frontrunner for the comedy award again and reportedly had an amazing season with yet another dynamite turn from the television comedy legend. I think you can bank on it.

Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Alternate: Lily Tomlin (another veteran fave, but unlikely)

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

  • Louie Anderson, Baskets
  • Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
  • Titus Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  • Ty Burrell, Modern Family
  • Tony Hale, Veep
  • Keegan-Michael Key, Key and Peele
  • Matt Walsh, Veep

I would really love to see consistent episode-stealer Titus Burgess win this, but with the Emmy repeat rule, I think Hale is more likely to get his third. With Veep's dominance, I suppose Matt Walsh has an outside shot (and I love seeing him get in here), but it's been decided for a while now that Tony Hale is the key supporting player to Dreyfus's queen on the show. 

Winner: Tony Hale

Alternate: Titus Burgess (this is more like wishful thinking on my part, since I'm not exactly sure who the alternate choice is most likely to be here)

Dark Horse: Keegan-Michael Key (with this being K&P's last season, I do think he has a sliver of a chance)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

  • Anna Chlumsky, Veep
  • Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
  • Allison Janney, Mom
  • Judith Light, Transparent
  • Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
  • Niecy Nash, Getting On

Eh. Once more, the repeat winner's rule applies, so Janney continues to dominate. But this is also a case where I'm just not sure who the voters would rally behind as an alternative. Frankly, one of these years I'd like to see McKinnon take it for continually being the MVP of the middling SNL, but no sketch player has ever won this award. The Transparent ladies probably cancel each other out, Chlumsky has nowhere near a meaty enough role, and Nash is on a show that hasn't been as talked about or seen. So that leaves us with the repeater.

Winner: Allison Janney

Alternate: Kate McKinnon

2016 Emmy Predictions, Part 1: Acting in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Yay, it's Emmy prediction time! Also known as throwing a blind dart week. Yes, predicting the Emmys is often flying blind, because they usually go with repetition to no end, and then just when you think you've figured it out we'll have a year where suddenly the least expected nominee wins in every category. But that's what makes 'em kinda fun as well, so I'll just stick to what I think I've observed over the years and go for broke. First up it's acting in a TV Movie or Limited Series, the toughest category.

ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Bryan Cranston, All the Way
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride
  • Idris Elba, Luther
  • Cuba Gooding Jr., The People v. OJ Simpson
  • Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
  • Courtney B. Vance, The People v. OJ Simpson

Okay, so People v. OJ is expected to really dominate the movie/mini categories, that's not even up for debate. The question is will it sweep its actors along with it. Since this was such a popular and buzzed about show this year, I'm going to say yes and go with Courtney B. Vance, who was incredible as Johnnie Cochran, and is undoubtedly the most deserving winner in the group.

Winner: Courtney B. Vance

Alternate: Bryan Cranston (obviously a huge Emmy favorite and could easily take it, to be honest)

ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
  • Felicity Huffman, American Crime
  • Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
  • Sarah Paulson, The People v. OJ SImpson
  • Lili Taylor, American Crime
  • Kerry Washington, Confirmation

All those years being nominated and overlooked for American Horror Story have finally culminated in this moment for Sarah Paulson in People v. OJ, and I believe it's finally her year, no question about it. And by the way, it's also 100% deserved for her performance as Marcia Clark.

Winner: Sarah Paulson

Alternate: Kerry Washington (but she's a pretty distant second I think)

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Sterling K. Brown, The People v. OJ Simpson
  • Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
  • Jesse Plemons, Fargo
  • David Schwimmer, The People v. OJ Simpson
  • John Travolta, The People v. OJ Simpson
  • Bokeem Woodbine, Fargo

Hoo boy, is this a tough decision. To be honest, any one of these guys could take it and I wouldn't be totally shocked. I myself am torn between Brown and Woodbine, both of whom gave astounding performances. But you have to think there's votes going around in the Academy for familiar and beloved names like Laurie (who never won an Emmy for House), old Friends fave Schwimmer, and of course movie star Travolta (they always love those in this category especially). This is a razor thin choice.

Winner: Sterling K. Brown (I'm basically voting my conscience on this one- he was just as amazing as Chris Darden as Vance and Paulson were in their roles)

Alternate: Hugh Laurie (something tells me a longtime TV vet like him has fans who think he's overdue, and he was really good in The Night Manager)

Dark Horse: John Travolta (it's the kind of win they love here, as I said before, even if some people would be mortified)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Hotel
  • Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
  • Regina King, American Crime
  • Melissa Leo, All the Way
  • Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Hotel
  • Jean Smart, Fargo

Honestly, I'm kind of at a disadvantage here, having only seen Fargo and The Night Manager, both of which boasted great performances by Colman and Smart, but far more subtle and quiet turns than what usually wins in this category. So, I think I'm going to say Kathy Bates takes it again. But Regina King actually won last year, so...maybe going with a repeater when you're not sure is the wiser move. It is the Emmys after all.

Winner: Regina King

Alternate: Kathy Bates (she's won before too and is a big name)

New Footage from 'The Fall' Season 3

Now comes an actual mini-trailer for Season 3, which shows us a bit of of Jamie Dornan's serial killer character's fate, after what happened in the Season 2 cliffhanger. I can't wait for this, but I still have no idea when it starts. Not sure what the UK's aversion to announcing premiere dates is exactly...over here we get those months in advance, but it seems like there they just like to spring 'em on you at the last second. 

'Masters of Sex' Trailer Brings Masters and Johnson Back Together for Season 4

Masters of Sex has been off the air for a whole year and now its fourth season is finally starting up again this Sunday night. I don't know if all the buzz seems to have left the room on this one, but I'm still watching it. I just hope they don't take too long to put Bill and Virginia back together, because I'm more interested in seeing them get to their married years now than I am in watching them try to date other people. It also looks like they may have gotten rid of Ginny's demonic daughter Tessa this season, which can only be a wise move.