Final Oscar Predictions, Part 4: The Actors

It's finally time for the acting awards, mainly the ones other than Picture that average viewers tune in to see. While the four categories look fairly set this year, with a definite frontrunner in all (well, maybe three out of four), that doesn't mean there's no chance for an upset, especially in supporting, as you'll see below- I'll also tell you what my own personal preference is for these:

BEST ACTOR

• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Christian Bale, American Hustle
• Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Bruce Dern, Nebraska

I think Matthew McConaughey has the edge here. He won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice and the SAG. I thought for a while that Leo might upset (he's massively popular and has so many fans who think he's overdue), since he also won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards, but if he was gaining momentum he probably should have won the BAFTA two weeks ago. They went with Ejiofor, who's from England, so maybe that's not a surprise. Both of those two have a slight chance to upset, but then so does Bruce Dern for Nebraska. Never, ever count out the old-time veteran who doesn't have an Oscar. The only person with no chance to win is Christian Bale, I think.

Winner: Matthew McConaughey

Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio

Dark Horse: Bruce Dern

My Choice: Leo DiCaprio- I'd love to see him win and I really did think it was the best and most daring performance of his career. As for McConaughey, frankly, he's so much more impressive and different from his usual self on HBO's True Detective that I think seeing him on that has made me less enthusiastic about him winning for Dallas Buyers Club- where he went through a dramatic physical transformation but didn't veer that much from his regular persona. Of course, most people see True Detective as the best possible asset for him during the Oscar campaign, so I'm in the minority on that one, because this award will also obviously be a career resurgence prize of sorts.

BEST ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity
• Amy Adams, American Hustle
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Cate Blanchett should be pretty safe. There were some who wondered if the recent Woody Allen controversy might cut into her chances to win, but I don't think it's a close enough race for that to make a difference. Amy Adams is probably in second place with the best chance to upset if anyone could, but Blanchett has won every single precursor- so she should be pretty far out in front.

Winner: Cate Blanchett

Alternate: Amy Adams

Dark Horse: Judi Dench (unlikely, but if the Philomena love is that strong, it could happen)

My Choice: Sandra Bullock- she carried the whole movie practically by herself. But Cate Blanchett is great in her film, so it's a fine choice, I just think Bullock's turn in Gravity has been underrated.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
• Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Jared Leto is the de facto frontrunner here. He's won most of the precursors except for BAFTA (where Dallas Buyers Club didn't get nominated for anything) and even though he doesn't seem to be a particularly passionate choice, he's got something of a default status going on due to the lack of appealing options. Funnily enough, after seeing Barkhad Abdi win the BAFTA, I wonder if Sony had launched a bigger campaign for Captain Phillips, whether he could have mounted a real challenge against Leto. Supporting acting categories are often where the upsets occur, and they have less of a problem awarding newcomers and first time actors there. I also wonder whether Dallas Buyers Club is too small of a movie to win two acting Oscars.

Winner: Jared Leto

Alternate: Barkhad Abdi

Dark Horse: not sure there is one- I think any other person in this category would be a total shock.

My Choice: Michael Fassbender- he's pure evil in 12 Years, but manages to give his psychotic character some complexities in spite of it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
• June Squibb, Nebraska

Ok, so this is the one with no single frontrunner- there's two. Lupita Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence are virtually neck and neck heading into this thing. I really thought Lupita was running away with it, but seeing Lawrence pull off that BAFTA win was kind of a big deal. From the beginning I've maintained that the Academy was not going to reward a 23-year-old relative newcomer with back to back Oscars, but for the last decade no actress winner has ever not gone on to win the Oscar after winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA award. That's a powerful combination, and if I predict Lupita, I'd be going against history. On top of which, American Hustle has 4 acting nominations, and very few films with that many nods have not won any of them. Plus it may be foolish to think that they just wouldn't give Lawrence a second Oscar- after all, it's not unprecedented and if she hadn't won last year she'd be a virtual lock to win this year. But part of me still thinks it's too much too soon, and they've got to reward 12 Years a Slave in some other major category besides Screenplay if it's going to win Best Picture. Still, the love for Hustle is very strong and the spotlight on Jennifer Lawrence as a megastar is at its brightest right now...I remain conflicted, but knowing the Academy, they'll go with their It Girl (and she'd become just the sixth person to ever win back to back Oscars, joining Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn, Luise Rainer, Jason Robards and Tom Hanks- that's a very small club).

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence

Alternate: Lupita Nyong'o

Dark Horse: June Squibb (this is possible- if Lupita and Jennifer are that close in the voting, they might split and someone else could slide in to take it in a complete surprise- but it's happened before).

My Choice: June Squibb. The 80-year-old was a pillar of strength in Nebraska and a hilarious scene stealer. My favorite of the five nominees.

Movie of the Day: "Sounder" (1972)

Our next movie celebrating Black History Month is Sounder, a wonderful, moving film about a black family living in the South at the start of the Great Depression. Told mostly from the point of view of the young boy (played by Kevin Hooks) whose relationship with his father shapes his early life, the film was an example of black history in America, but also made some Oscar history at the time, getting nominated for 4 awards, including Best Picture, Actor, Actress and Screenplay. Cicely Tyson and especially Paul Winfield turn in tremendous performances as the parents, and Lon Elder III was the first black screenwriter to get an Oscar nomination. Based on a Newbury Medal-winning children's book, the ending scene between Winfield and Hooks still makes me tear up.

Original trailer from 1972:

Angelina Jolie on "Unbroken"

Tom Brokaw interviews Angelina Jolie for The Today Show, where she seems to be promoting her new film already, even though it doesn't come out until Christmas. I kinda hope this isn't the start of the world's longest Oscar campaign, but here it is:

Adam Driver is the new 'Star Wars' Villain

In the first bit of casting news on the new J.J. Abrams directed Star Wars movie (other than the fact that the original trio is coming back), Adam Driver has signed on to play the villain. The 30-year-old Girls star has been popping up in bit parts a lot recently, in movies like Frances Ha, Lincoln and Inside Llewyn Davis. I'm not surprised he's breaking through, as he was (and I'm sure still is) the very best thing about Lena Dunham's HBO series (if it hadn't been for him, I probably would have stopped watching it even sooner than I did). No news on what kind of part he's playing, so fans can only speculate (and they will of course) while Star Wars Episode VII is set to start filming this spring and is scheduled for release on Dec 15, 2015. 

Final Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Foreign, Animated, Doc, Screenplay & Editing

The last group of techs are up today, and we're now getting into some bigger categories, ones that really might predict the Best Picture winner. Today I predict the winners for the screenplay awards, animated, foreign, and documentary films, along with the all important editing award:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• American Hustle
• Her
• Nebraska
• Blue Jasmine
• Dallas Buyers Club

This is between Her and American Hustle. I think most people are predicting Spike Jonze and Her, because it won the Golden Globe, WGA and Critics Choice award, and that is impressive, but I cannot shake the feeling that the Academy does not want to let American Hustle walk away with nothing. This is the chance to award David O. Russell personally after three hit films in a row (which gathered 11 acting nominations total), and with all those actors voting in the Academy, it's bound to grab a lot of votes here. Plus, it won this at BAFTA, where Spike Jonze wasn't even nominated, so the influential British bloc is certainly not picking Her. I'm going with Hustle here, but I wouldn't blame you for choosing Her, as it may be a toss-up between them.

Winner: American Hustle

Alternate: Her

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• 12 Years a Slave
• Captain Phillips
• Before Midnight
• Philomena
• The Wolf of Wall Street

I was about 99% sure 12 Years a Slave was taking this award until Philomena won the BAFTA. Now I'm more like 80% sure. It should still have the edge, but let's put it this way- if it does not win this category then the Academy really didn't like the movie and it's Best Picture chances are in serious jeopardy. 

Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Alternate: Philomena

Dark Horse: Captain Phillips (mostly because it won the WGA, where the other two weren't eligible, but I don't expect it to win here).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Frozen
• The Wind Rises
• The Croods
• Ernest & Celestine
• Despicable Me 2

Along with visual effects and makeup, one of the easiest calls of the night. 

Winner: Frozen

Alternate: None

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• The Hunt
• The Great Beauty
• The Broken Circle Breakdown
• The Missing Picture
• Omar

This category has been kind of a puzzler, as the most acclaimed and awarded foreign film of 2013, Blue is the Warmest Color, wasn't eligible this year, so figuring out what people might prefer here is something of a question mark. What's also a question mark for me is how many people will have actually seen any of these nominees (this is another category where voting was recently opened up to the entire membership). I have to go with the Golden Globe and BAFTA winner The Great Beauty, as it seems to be the one with the most heat, and I don't think a lot of voters will have watched any of these and will end up picking the one they've heard of most recently.

Winner: The Great Beauty

Alternate: The Hunt

Dark Horse: The Broken Circle Breakdown (wins for this or The Hunt depend on voters actually having seen the films, but if they did, either one of these might be more accessible than Beauty)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

• Cutie and the Boxer
• The Act of Killing
• 20 Feet From Stardom
• The Square
• Dirty Wars

Boy, this one's tough. You know how I feel about The Act of Killing, and if this was any year before last, where again, the only people who could vote for Documentary had to have seen all five films, I'd say it wins in a heartbeat. But now, with the whole Academy voting, I honestly don't believe many of them will get through it. Which is a shame, but for that reason I think it will be the feel good, popular choice, 20 Feet From Stardom (which is a great movie too, just not as impactful). And The Square is also a possibility, because it's about recent news events, and that matches the old pattern in Documentary of voting for the important subject matter. The guilds were no help in predicting this category, because they split up all over the place, but I do think it's between those three films. I'm wavering, but for now I'll stick with the back-up singers.

Winner: 20 Feet From Stardom

Alternate: The Act of Killing

Dark Horse: The Square

BEST EDITING

• American Hustle
• 12 Years a Slave
• Captain Phillips
• Gravity
• Dallas Buyers Club

This category used to match up with Best Picture all the time, but recently it's begun to separate out to other movies. Most people thought Gravity was a lock for this, but it failed to win the editing guild award (which went to Captain Phillips) and then lost the BAFTA too (where they voted for Rush). The hesitation to award Gravity here makes me think that people look at the word editing and think it means "choppiest cuts" as opposed to Alfonso Cuaron's long takes. As stupid as that sounds, I'm convinced that's the reason movies like The Bourne Supremacy and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo won this out of nowhere in recent years. So I'm kind of wary about this category, but I think I'll go with Captain Phillips, due to my consistent lack of faith in the voters.

Winner: Captain Phillips

Alternate: Gravity

Dark Horse: American Hustle (that'd be a surprise, but never count out a strong Best Picture contender in editing- plus the cuts are pretty flashy in this one too and it also won an editing guild prize).

Movie of the Day: "Stormy Weather" (1943)

Our Movie of the Day is the musical Stormy Weather, one of the few Hollywood films starring an African-American cast in the pre-civil rights era. Essentially a movie filled with concert performances from some of the biggest names of the day, including Bill "Bojangles" Robinson, Cab Calloway, Fats Waller, the Nicholas Brothers and the legendary Lena Horne (above) singing the title tune in an unforgettable movie moment. It was rare to see films with black characters as the leads in the Old Hollywood days, but this particular film provided a showcase for talents which rarely got the chance to be seen by a national audience. I couldn't find a trailer for this one, but just watch this clip of the Nicholas Brothers' acrobatic tap number from the movie below and tell me that's not one of the most incredible dance sequences ever put to film. Amazing. 

The Nicholas Brothers:

TRAILER: "Godzilla"

The full trailer for the new Godzilla movie, coming out May 16th. This actually looks pretty cool! It can only get better from the horrible 1998 version, but I love all the nods to the original Japanese movie from the 50's, which was really a metaphor for the fallout of the atomic bomb. This may turn out to be one of those rare remakes that works, like 2011's Planet of the Apes reboot:

Final Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Makeup, Music, Costumes, Sets & Cinematography

Today it's time for the second group of tech awards, which include makeup, music, costumes, sets, and cinematography. Some of these categories are a little easier to call, but most still have a fairly strong runner-up right behind it, so let's get going:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Gravity
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Prisoners
• Nebraska
• The Grandmaster

This is Gravity's to lose. It won the Cinematography guild award, along with the BAFTA, and the Academy has gone for the 3D epic in this category the last three times it was eligible (Life of Pi, Hugo, Avatar). It's really no contest.

Winner: Gravity

Alternate: None, I can't imagine it losing.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• The Great Gatsby
• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• Her

Now, this is a tricky one, despite first glance indicating that Gatsby should have it. It's won all the requisite precursor awards, including the ADG and BAFTA, but sometimes the Oscars go a different way in this category, especially regarding movies they don't like. Gatsby got mixed to negative reviews and is only nominated for two Oscars, and last year's Anna Karenina was another critically mixed film that won all the precursors for production design, only to lose the Oscar to Lincoln. Often this category goes to the film with the most overall nominations, which tells me 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle or even Gravity could be in the running. Then again, this may be overthinking things, as badly received films like Alice in Wonderland and Memoirs of a Geisha still managed a win here. I'll stick with Gatsby for now, but it's not a lock at all.

Winner: The Great Gatsby

Alternate: 12 Years a Slave

Dark Horse: American Hustle

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Great Gatsby
• The Grandmaster
• 12 Years a Slave
• The Invisible Woman
• American Hustle

Now, in this category they never have a problem rewarding badly received films, and usually the loudest, flashiest, biggest period costumes take it. The Great Gatsby has won most of the costume awards, including the BAFTA but just the other day, 12 Years a Slave won the Costume Designers Guild award in a bit of an upset, so that may signal that this is a place besides screenplay where they can reward the Best Picture frontrunner. I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and say 12 Years, because of that guild win. It's a limb because Gatsby's costumes are undoubtedly flashier and that almost always prevails, but I just have a feeling this year may be different.

Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Alternate: The Great Gatsby

Dark Horse: American Hustle

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Gravity
• The Book Thief
• Her
• Philomena
• Saving Mr. Banks

I really think this belongs to Gravity (and yes, that movie will be picking up the most statues on Oscar night). Philomena is the spoiler, as it's really the only chance for that film to win something, and reports are that the older members in the Academy loved the movie, but I feel pretty safe choosing Gravity here.

Winner: Gravity

Alternate: Philomena

Dark Horse: None, I'd be shocked it it wasn't one of those two.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Let it Go," Idina Menzel (Frozen)
• "The Moon Song," Karen O. (Her)
• "Happy," Pharell Williams (Despicable Me 2)
• "Ordinary Love," U2 (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

This is an exciting category because this is the first time in years the Song award has actually been competitive, and there are two genuine big hits among the nominees. I'm going to go with "Let it Go," because that song has basically swept the country as part of the phenomenon that is Frozen, but never count out U2, who will be performing at the ceremony, along with the others. As for the quality, I personally think "Happy" is the catchiest and best song of these nominees, and with the song a big hit in its own right and Pharell Williams on a Grammy-winning hot streak, he could very well be the surprise winner too. I'm going with Frozen due to the momentum of the movie, but I really don't think "Let it Go" is up there with the best Disney song winners of the past (I'm sorry, but that song is no "Under the Sea" or "A Whole New World.")

Winner: "Let it Go"

Alternate: "Happy"

Dark Horse: "Ordinary Love"

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

• Dallas Buyers Club
• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
• Lone Ranger

Dallas Buyers Club. Slam dunk. As I said last week there's no way the Academy allows the word Jackass to be engraved on an Oscar, and The Lone Ranger was one of the worst reviewed movies of last year. Maybe if it was just the makeup artists voting they might consider the other two, but with the whole Academy chiming in? No.

Winner: Dallas Buyers Club

Alternate: None.

Blu-Ray Pick of the Week: "Blue is the Warmest Color" (2013)

The Criterion Collection has Blue is the Warmest Color out this week, the Palm D'Or winner of last year's Cannes film festival. It's a passionate, intense look at a teenager's coming of age in modern day France, and a love story enacted by two actresses giving the performances of their lives. Adele Exarchopoulos makes her film debut as the lead (whose name, coincidentally is also Adele), and Lea Seydoux is the older woman she falls for. The most acclaimed foreign film of 2013, it was ineligible for the Oscars this year due to its release date in France, but it's inclusion all but certainly would have made this year's outcome in that category very different. Check it out, it's a beautiful film worth seeing.

Trailer:

Movie of the Day: "12 Years a Slave" (2013)

The last week of February is also the last week of Black History Month, which we are going to note by celebrating all this week in our Movie of the Day series. And why not start with the movie of the moment, the Best Picture frontrunner itself? 12 Years a Slave was a powerful account of the life of Solomon Northup, who was kidnapped into slavery from the North in 1841 and spent more than a decade on Southern plantations before finally gaining back his freedom. Chiwetel Ejiofor turned in an affecting performance of a man trapped in devastating circumstances, and the rest of the cast is filled out by an ensemble that includes Michael Fassbender, Lupita Nyong'o, Paul Dano, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti and Brad Pitt. A powerfully moving film.

Trailer:

Final Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Effects, Sound and Shorts

All this week I'll be posting my final Oscar predictions for every category. They'll be split up into 5 groups, 3 groups of technical awards, the actors, and finally Picture/Director. This is a tough year, where several of the races are either neck and neck, or completely up in the air, so you'll have to bear with me on this, but I'm going to do my best to help you with your Oscar pool, so here we go. I'll start with the first group of techs, and we'll move from the smaller categories to the bigger ones as the week progresses. Today it's the sound awards, visual effects, and those dreaded shorts, the thorn in every Oscar pool:

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Gravity
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• The Lone Ranger
• Star Trek Into Darkness
• Iron Man 3

An easy one, the easiest of the 24 categories, probably. This is Gravity, hands down, as everyone already knows.

Winner: Gravity

Alternate: None, this category is locked.

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Captain Phillips
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Gravity
• All is Lost
• Lone Survivor

Ostensibly there is a difference between these two sound categories, but no one really knows what it is, least of all your average Academy member. Your best bet here is Gravity, where sound was crucial to the experience, as so much of the film was set in the silence of space. 

Winner: Gravity

Alternate: Captain Phillips (this split the Sound guild award with Gravity)

Dark Horse: All is Lost (unlikely, but sound was an important part of that nearly silent film as well)

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Lone Survivor
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Captain Phillips
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Gravity

I'd go for Gravity again since it won the guild, but Captain Phillips could very well take one of these sound prizes if they want to award that film a trophy someplace. Still, I'm predicting Gravity to take it.

Winner: Gravity

Alternate: Captain Phillips

Dark Horse: Inside Llewyn Davis (sometimes musicals win here, but in this case it's a long shot at best)

BEST DCUMENTARY SHORT

• CaveDigger
• Facing Fear
• Karama Has No Walls
• The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
• Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack

Ok, so here we go with the short categories. The shorts can sometimes make or break everyone's predictions, because obviously very few people have seen these except for the members of the individual branch. They're trying to make the shorts more widely available these days to the public, but there's still a long way to go. No one used to even be able to vote for these except members who'd seen every film, but now the whole Academy can vote if they so choose. That may make it easier to call the most broadly appealing film, but it's still a crapshoot for the most part. For what it's worth, I actually got the three short categories right the last two years in a row (after missing them every year for a decade before that), but I'm still simply making my best guess. Here, I'm choosing The Lady in Number 6, as it seems to be the most moving, about an elderly Holocaust survivor (who sadly, just passed away last night).

Winner: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• That Wasn't Me
• Just Before Losing Everything
• Helium
• Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
• The Voorman Problem

By accounts from the people who've actually seen these nominees, Helium appears to be the most popular. And since many Academy members simply skip these categories if they haven't seen them, the favorite will probably win out.

Winner: Helium

Alternate: The Voorman Problem (this was nominated for a BAFTA and has a couple of name actors in it, so it could spoil)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Feral
• Get a Horse!
• Mr. Hublot
• Possessions
• Room on the Broom

A lot of people think Feral is the best one, but Get a Horse! is a Disney animated short starring Mickey Mouse, the first in almost 20 years. It won the Annie Award and features original voice recordings of Walt Disney as Mickey, so, again, given the fact that the whole membership votes now, I think this celebration of early Hollywood has the sentimental edge.

Winner: Get a Horse!

Alternate: Feral

Harold Ramis 1944-2014

In some very sad news today, it's been reported that Harold Ramis has died at the age of 69. He was best known for his roles in the comedy classics Ghostbusters and Stripes, but he was a hugely talented writer-director whose films included Caddyshack, National Lampoon's Vacation, Groundhog Day, and Analyze This. He was a Chicago native who started out with National Lampoon and SCTV in the mid-70's and went on to become co-writer of the hits Animal House, Meatballs and Stripes, occasionally performing in movies as well. He died from complications relating to autoimmune inflammatory vasculitis.

To a certain group of fans, myself included, Harold Ramis will forever be known as Dr. Egon Spengler, nerd extraordinaire and collector of "spores, molds and fungus." See below: