The last group of techs are up today, and we're now getting into some bigger categories, ones that really might predict the Best Picture winner. Today I predict the winners for the screenplay awards, animated, foreign, and documentary films, along with the all important editing award:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- American Hustle
- Her
- Nebraska
- Blue Jasmine
- Dallas Buyers Club
This is between Her and American Hustle. I think most people are predicting Spike Jonze and Her, because it won the Golden Globe, WGA and Critics Choice award, and that is impressive, but I cannot shake the feeling that the Academy does not want to let American Hustle walk away with nothing. This is the chance to award David O. Russell personally after three hit films in a row (which gathered 11 acting nominations total), and with all those actors voting in the Academy, it's bound to grab a lot of votes here. Plus, it won this at BAFTA, where Spike Jonze wasn't even nominated, so the influential British bloc is certainly not picking Her. I'm going with Hustle here, but I wouldn't blame you for choosing Her, as it may be a toss-up between them.
Winner: American Hustle
Alternate: Her
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- 12 Years a Slave
- Captain Phillips
- Before Midnight
- Philomena
- The Wolf of Wall Street
I was about 99% sure 12 Years a Slave was taking this award until Philomena won the BAFTA. Now I'm more like 80% sure. It should still have the edge, but let's put it this way- if it does not win this category then the Academy really didn't like the movie and it's Best Picture chances are in serious jeopardy.
Winner: 12 Years a Slave
Alternate: Philomena
Dark Horse: Captain Phillips (mostly because it won the WGA, where the other two weren't eligible, but I don't expect it to win here).
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Frozen
- The Wind Rises
- The Croods
- Ernest & Celestine
- Despicable Me 2
Along with visual effects and makeup, one of the easiest calls of the night.
Winner: Frozen
Alternate: None
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- The Hunt
- The Great Beauty
- The Broken Circle Breakdown
- The Missing Picture
- Omar
This category has been kind of a puzzler, as the most acclaimed and awarded foreign film of 2013, Blue is the Warmest Color, wasn't eligible this year, so figuring out what people might prefer here is something of a question mark. What's also a question mark for me is how many people will have actually seen any of these nominees (this is another category where voting was recently opened up to the entire membership). I have to go with the Golden Globe and BAFTA winner The Great Beauty, as it seems to be the one with the most heat, and I don't think a lot of voters will have watched any of these and will end up picking the one they've heard of most recently.
Winner: The Great Beauty
Alternate: The Hunt
Dark Horse: The Broken Circle Breakdown (wins for this or The Hunt depend on voters actually having seen the films, but if they did, either one of these might be more accessible than Beauty)
BEST DOCUMENTARY
- Cutie and the Boxer
- The Act of Killing
- 20 Feet From Stardom
- The Square
- Dirty Wars
Boy, this one's tough. You know how I feel about The Act of Killing, and if this was any year before last, where again, the only people who could vote for Documentary had to have seen all five films, I'd say it wins in a heartbeat. But now, with the whole Academy voting, I honestly don't believe many of them will get through it. Which is a shame, but for that reason I think it will be the feel good, popular choice, 20 Feet From Stardom (which is a great movie too, just not as impactful). And The Square is also a possibility, because it's about recent news events, and that matches the old pattern in Documentary of voting for the important subject matter. The guilds were no help in predicting this category, because they split up all over the place, but I do think it's between those three films. I'm wavering, but for now I'll stick with the back-up singers.
Winner: 20 Feet From Stardom
Alternate: The Act of Killing
Dark Horse: The Square
BEST EDITING
- American Hustle
- 12 Years a Slave
- Captain Phillips
- Gravity
- Dallas Buyers Club
This category used to match up with Best Picture all the time, but recently it's begun to separate out to other movies. Most people thought Gravity was a lock for this, but it failed to win the editing guild award (which went to Captain Phillips) and then lost the BAFTA too (where they voted for Rush). The hesitation to award Gravity here makes me think that people look at the word editing and think it means "choppiest cuts" as opposed to Alfonso Cuaron's long takes. As stupid as that sounds, I'm convinced that's the reason movies like The Bourne Supremacy and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo won this out of nowhere in recent years. So I'm kind of wary about this category, but I think I'll go with Captain Phillips, due to my consistent lack of faith in the voters.
Winner: Captain Phillips
Alternate: Gravity
Dark Horse: American Hustle (that'd be a surprise, but never count out a strong Best Picture contender in editing- plus the cuts are pretty flashy in this one too and it also won an editing guild prize).
