'Movie 43' Named Worst Picture of the Year

I suppose I was wrong earlier- the Razzies, not the Indie Spirits, are the last stop before the Oscars, as Movie 43 dominated the field, along with the Smiths and After Earth. Personally, I was hoping for a stronger showing from Adam Sandler here, but Movie 43 definitely earned its horrible reputation.

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  • Worst Picture: Movie 43
  • Worst Actor: Jaden Smith, After Earth
  • Worst Actress: Tyler Perry, A Madea Christmas
  • Worst Supporting Actor: Will Smith, After Earth
  • Worst Supporting Actress: Kim Kardashian, Tyler Perry's Temptation
  • Worst Director: "The 13 People Who Directed Movie 43"
  • Worst Screenplay: Movie 43, written by 19 "Screenwriters"
  • Worst Screen Combo: Jaden Smith & Will Smith on Planet Nepotism, After Earth
  • Worst Remake, Rip-off, or Sequel: The Lone Ranger

Final Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Picture and Director

So, the final predictions today for the big two, Best Director and Best Picture. Let's get to it:

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BEST DIRECTOR

  • Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
  • Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
  • David O. Russell, American Hustle
  • Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Alexander Payne, Nebraska

This looks pretty settled for Alfonso Cuaron. He's won virtually everything- the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, DGA and BAFTA awards for director. At this point it'd be very surprising to see him lose. The only possibility that I can see is if the Academy decides to go nuts for 12 Years a Slave and award it in Picture and Director. But if even McQueen's hometown BAFTA awards wouldn't choose him it's hard to see how the Academy does. Cuaron or McQueen would make history, becoming either the first Latino or the first black director to win this award. 

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Alternate: Steve McQueen

Dark Horse: David O. Russell (for the movie third in line to win Best Picture, but unlikely to happen).

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BEST PICTURE

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Captain Phillips
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Gravity
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • Philomena
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

Well, this is it. Obviously, you know by now that the top prize of the night belongs to either 12 Years a Slave or Gravity, but the truth is I have no idea which one it's more likely to be. American Hustle is in third place and could be the spoiler, and even though that would be the biggest surprise, it shouldn't be counted out completely- it has the actors branch behind it and this is a genuine three-way race. With the rest of my predictions, I've chosen Gravity to win 6 Oscars, and Picture would be its 7th. Very few films win that many awards without winning the top prize, but sci-fi is a genre that has never been awarded by the Academy in that way. Winning the directing prize alone will be a victory for it in that sense. But it won the Producers Guild (in a tie) and the Directors Guild, a combination which has been historically all but unbeatable for Best Picture in the past. 

As for 12 Years, I've tapped it to win two, and Picture would make three, but It may not even win that many (I'm taking a risk on costumes). The last film to win just Picture and Screenplay was 1952's The Greatest Show on Earth, so if it pulls that off it'd be in very rare company. But the importance and the social significance of the film may tip the scales in its favor. It's won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, Producer's Guild (where it tied with Gravity) and the BAFTA for Best Picture, but Steve McQueen has won no major awards for Best Director, which is very unusual for a Best Picture frontrunner, and places it in a weaker position than would normally be the case.

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At this point, whatever wins is going to be some kind of anomaly, because the precursors have been so split between these two films. And to make things even more difficult, for this category only, the Academy uses a preferential ballot- a system no other awards body uses (except for the PGA, where they tied) that tallies the votes according to how a movie is ranked from 1-9. That basically means that in a razor tight race like this one, what matters most is where voters who didn't place either film at #1, for example the American Hustle voters, placed it relation to each other. In other words, whatever movie can rack up the most #2 and #3 votes is the winner. So if the voters intended to deliberately split the difference and give Cuaron director and 12 Years a Slave picture, the way all the other awards groups have done, that might not happen here. 

I think if it was a simple popular vote then 12 Years a Slave would narrowly win. But in my opinion, the preferential ballot gives Gravity the edge (or even American Hustle), because it's a less divisive and more broadly popular movie that can tally up those second and third place votes. 

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But that's just a guess. And since I have no particular insight into the minds of the voters and I believe it's an honest-to-god 50% chance for either movie, I'm going to just go ahead and say 12 Years a Slave, because the importance of the subject will outshine the sci-fi genre (even though it's not really sci-fi) for the top honor, even if it manages to win very little else on its way to Best Picture. Or maybe I'm just too chicken to predict Gravity, given the Academy's long history of ignoring other movies like it, despite the fact that I have this little voice in my head screaming at me that the PGA/DGA combination plus the preferential ballot points to that film winning. Just know that I'm very torn about this and wouldn't be surprised to hear either name called.

Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Alternate: Gravity

Dark Horse: American Hustle

My Choice: Well, if I was voting it'd be Gravity. You know that Gravity was my favorite film of the year, and American Hustle was on my top ten as well, so I'd be happy to see either of those win. But I honestly wouldn't mind seeing 12 Years a Slave win either- it's a very good movie and so many people feel so passionately about it that I can't take anything away from it, even if it wasn't my personal favorite of last year (it would have made my top 20). Still, whatever wins I'll be fine with, because all three movies are a whole lot better than the last few winners for Best Picture (Argo, The King's Speech, The Artist), at least in my opinion. So, for one of the closest Oscar races in years, I'll be tuning in Sunday night excited to hear which name is called out on that envelope (and crossing my fingers to have gotten most of these predictions right as well). Don't forget to come back Sunday for my recap of the show, along with the full list of the night's winners!

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Final Oscar Predictions, Part 4: The Actors

It's finally time for the acting awards, mainly the ones other than Picture that average viewers tune in to see. While the four categories look fairly set this year, with a definite frontrunner in all (well, maybe three out of four), that doesn't mean there's no chance for an upset, especially in supporting, as you'll see below- I'll also tell you what my own personal preference is for these:

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BEST ACTOR

  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
  • Christian Bale, American Hustle
  • Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Bruce Dern, Nebraska

I think Matthew McConaughey has the edge here. He won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice and the SAG. I thought for a while that Leo might upset (he's massively popular and has so many fans who think he's overdue), since he also won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards, but if he was gaining momentum he probably should have won the BAFTA two weeks ago. They went with Ejiofor, who's from England, so maybe that's not a surprise. Both of those two have a slight chance to upset, but then so does Bruce Dern for Nebraska. Never, ever count out the old-time veteran who doesn't have an Oscar. The only person with no chance to win is Christian Bale, I think.

Winner: Matthew McConaughey

Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio

Dark Horse: Bruce Dern

My Choice: Leo DiCaprio- I'd love to see him win and I really did think it was the best and most daring performance of his career. As for McConaughey, frankly, he's so much more impressive and different from his usual self on HBO's True Detective that I think seeing him on that has made me less enthusiastic about him winning for Dallas Buyers Club- where he went through a dramatic physical transformation but didn't veer that much from his regular persona. Of course, most people see True Detective as the best possible asset for him during the Oscar campaign, so I'm in the minority on that one, because this award will also obviously be a career resurgence prize of sorts.

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BEST ACTRESS

  • Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  • Amy Adams, American Hustle
  • Judi Dench, Philomena
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Cate Blanchett should be pretty safe. There were some who wondered if the recent Woody Allen controversy might cut into her chances to win, but I don't think it's a close enough race for that to make a difference. Amy Adams is probably in second place with the best chance to upset if anyone could, but Blanchett has won every single precursor- so she should be pretty far out in front.

Winner: Cate Blanchett

Alternate: Amy Adams

Dark Horse: Judi Dench (unlikely, but if the Philomena love is that strong, it could happen)

My Choice: Sandra Bullock- she carried the whole movie practically by herself. But Cate Blanchett is great in her film, so it's a fine choice, I just think Bullock's turn in Gravity has been underrated.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  • Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Jared Leto is the de facto frontrunner here. He's won most of the precursors except for BAFTA (where Dallas Buyers Club didn't get nominated for anything) and even though he doesn't seem to be a particularly passionate choice, he's got something of a default status going on due to the lack of appealing options. Funnily enough, after seeing Barkhad Abdi win the BAFTA, I wonder if Sony had launched a bigger campaign for Captain Phillips, whether he could have mounted a real challenge against Leto. Supporting acting categories are often where the upsets occur, and they have less of a problem awarding newcomers and first time actors there. I also wonder whether Dallas Buyers Club is too small of a movie to win two acting Oscars.

Winner: Jared Leto

Alternate: Barkhad Abdi

Dark Horse: not sure there is one- I think any other person in this category would be a total shock.

My Choice: Michael Fassbender- he's pure evil in 12 Years, but manages to give his psychotic character some complexities in spite of it.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
  • Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
  • Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  • June Squibb, Nebraska

Ok, so this is the one with no single frontrunner- there's two. Lupita Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence are virtually neck and neck heading into this thing. I really thought Lupita was running away with it, but seeing Lawrence pull off that BAFTA win was kind of a big deal. From the beginning I've maintained that the Academy was not going to reward a 23-year-old relative newcomer with back to back Oscars, but for the last decade no actress winner has ever not gone on to win the Oscar after winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA award. That's a powerful combination, and if I predict Lupita, I'd be going against history. On top of which, American Hustle has 4 acting nominations, and very few films with that many nods have not won any of them. Plus it may be foolish to think that they just wouldn't give Lawrence a second Oscar- after all, it's not unprecedented and if she hadn't won last year she'd be a virtual lock to win this year. But part of me still thinks it's too much too soon, and they've got to reward 12 Years a Slave in some other major category besides Screenplay if it's going to win Best Picture. Still, the love for Hustle is very strong and the spotlight on Jennifer Lawrence as a megastar is at its brightest right now...I remain conflicted, but knowing the Academy, they'll go with their It Girl (and she'd become just the sixth person to ever win back to back Oscars, joining Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn, Luise Rainer, Jason Robards and Tom Hanks- that's a very small club).

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence

Alternate: Lupita Nyong'o

Dark Horse: June Squibb (this is possible- if Lupita and Jennifer are that close in the voting, they might split and someone else could slide in to take it in a complete surprise- but it's happened before).

My Choice: June Squibb. The 80-year-old was a pillar of strength in Nebraska and a hilarious scene stealer. My favorite of the five nominees.

Adam Driver is the new 'Star Wars' Villain

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In the first bit of casting news on the new J.J. Abrams directed Star Wars movie (other than the fact that the original trio is coming back), Adam Driver has signed on to play the villain. The 30-year-old Girls star has been popping up in bit parts a lot recently, in movies like Frances Ha, Lincoln and Inside Llewyn Davis. I'm not surprised he's breaking through, as he was (and I'm sure still is) the very best thing about Lena Dunham's HBO series (if it hadn't been for him, I probably would have stopped watching it even sooner than I did). No news on what kind of part he's playing, so fans can only speculate (and they will of course) while Star Wars Episode VII is set to start filming this spring and is scheduled for release on Dec 15, 2015. 

Final Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Foreign, Animated, Doc, Screenplay & Editing

The last group of techs are up today, and we're now getting into some bigger categories, ones that really might predict the Best Picture winner. Today I predict the winners for the screenplay awards, animated, foreign, and documentary films, along with the all important editing award:

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • American Hustle
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • Blue Jasmine
  • Dallas Buyers Club

This is between Her and American Hustle. I think most people are predicting Spike Jonze and Her, because it won the Golden Globe, WGA and Critics Choice award, and that is impressive, but I cannot shake the feeling that the Academy does not want to let American Hustle walk away with nothing. This is the chance to award David O. Russell personally after three hit films in a row (which gathered 11 acting nominations total), and with all those actors voting in the Academy, it's bound to grab a lot of votes here. Plus, it won this at BAFTA, where Spike Jonze wasn't even nominated, so the influential British bloc is certainly not picking Her. I'm going with Hustle here, but I wouldn't blame you for choosing Her, as it may be a toss-up between them.

Winner: American Hustle

Alternate: Her

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • Captain Phillips
  • Before Midnight
  • Philomena
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

I was about 99% sure 12 Years a Slave was taking this award until Philomena won the BAFTA. Now I'm more like 80% sure. It should still have the edge, but let's put it this way- if it does not win this category then the Academy really didn't like the movie and it's Best Picture chances are in serious jeopardy. 

Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Alternate: Philomena

Dark Horse: Captain Phillips (mostly because it won the WGA, where the other two weren't eligible, but I don't expect it to win here).

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Frozen
  • The Wind Rises
  • The Croods
  • Ernest & Celestine
  • Despicable Me 2

Along with visual effects and makeup, one of the easiest calls of the night. 

Winner: Frozen

Alternate: None

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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • The Hunt
  • The Great Beauty
  • The Broken Circle Breakdown
  • The Missing Picture
  • Omar

This category has been kind of a puzzler, as the most acclaimed and awarded foreign film of 2013, Blue is the Warmest Color, wasn't eligible this year, so figuring out what people might prefer here is something of a question mark. What's also a question mark for me is how many people will have actually seen any of these nominees (this is another category where voting was recently opened up to the entire membership). I have to go with the Golden Globe and BAFTA winner The Great Beauty, as it seems to be the one with the most heat, and I don't think a lot of voters will have watched any of these and will end up picking the one they've heard of most recently.

Winner: The Great Beauty

Alternate: The Hunt

Dark Horse: The Broken Circle Breakdown (wins for this or The Hunt depend on voters actually having seen the films, but if they did, either one of these might be more accessible than Beauty)

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BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • Cutie and the Boxer
  • The Act of Killing
  • 20 Feet From Stardom
  • The Square
  • Dirty Wars

Boy, this one's tough. You know how I feel about The Act of Killing, and if this was any year before last, where again, the only people who could vote for Documentary had to have seen all five films, I'd say it wins in a heartbeat. But now, with the whole Academy voting, I honestly don't believe many of them will get through it. Which is a shame, but for that reason I think it will be the feel good, popular choice, 20 Feet From Stardom (which is a great movie too, just not as impactful). And The Square is also a possibility, because it's about recent news events, and that matches the old pattern in Documentary of voting for the important subject matter. The guilds were no help in predicting this category, because they split up all over the place, but I do think it's between those three films. I'm wavering, but for now I'll stick with the back-up singers.

Winner: 20 Feet From Stardom

Alternate: The Act of Killing

Dark Horse: The Square

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BEST EDITING

  • American Hustle
  • 12 Years a Slave
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • Dallas Buyers Club

This category used to match up with Best Picture all the time, but recently it's begun to separate out to other movies. Most people thought Gravity was a lock for this, but it failed to win the editing guild award (which went to Captain Phillips) and then lost the BAFTA too (where they voted for Rush). The hesitation to award Gravity here makes me think that people look at the word editing and think it means "choppiest cuts" as opposed to Alfonso Cuaron's long takes. As stupid as that sounds, I'm convinced that's the reason movies like The Bourne Supremacy and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo won this out of nowhere in recent years. So I'm kind of wary about this category, but I think I'll go with Captain Phillips, due to my consistent lack of faith in the voters.

Winner: Captain Phillips

Alternate: Gravity

Dark Horse: American Hustle (that'd be a surprise, but never count out a strong Best Picture contender in editing- plus the cuts are pretty flashy in this one too and it also won an editing guild prize).