TRAILER: "Welcome to Me"

Kristen Wiig brings what looks like one of her SNL characters to the screen in this comedy-drama about a woman with Borderline Personality Disorder who wins the lottery and decides to host her own talk show. I don't know about the premise of this- Wiig is funny, but does this look like another one of those "mental illness is so cute and funny" movies to anyone else? It looks like it's got one foot set in reality, when maybe it should just go all out with the nuttiness. But it did get good reviews at Toronto last year, so who knows. It's coming out May 1st.

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Four: Acting

Okay, so it's time to deal with my least favorite categories this year, because they're all so boring and/or undeserving, and those are the big acting awards. These are the ones that everybody waits for on the show, but this time around, they're going to be a letdown, so I'm letting you know that in advance. Let's get this over with.

BEST ACTOR

  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Well, I'd be pretty stupid not to predict the Globe, SAG and Bafta winner to also take the Oscar, so...I guess it's Redmayne. But I HATE this win, and I really wouldn't care who of the other guys upset him, as long as one of them did, so I'm rooting for anyone else. Keaton still has the best chance of doing it, but Bradley Cooper might be able to spoil (he wasn't nominated at any of the precursors, so he hasn't competed against the other two yet). I just cannot stand that they are falling for Oscar Bait 101: Real Life Person With a Disability, but from the most mediocre of mediocre movies to come out last year. I said it before and I will say it again- Daniel Day-Lewis did this already, he did it 25 years ago and he did it a million times better, in a much better film. If you want to see the real thing and not the poor man's imitation of a physical transformation performance, go back and watch My Left Foot. There's no reason for anyone to watch The Theory of Everything. Let's just hope that if Birdman is strong enough for Best Picture, that means that Keaton is going along for the ride.

Winner: Eddie Redmayne
Alternate: Michael Keaton
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper

BEST ACTRESS

  • Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

This one I just don't have much to say. It's Julianne Moore, it's a terrible movie, not a terrific performance, but it's a career award and certainly a deserving one at that, so...congratulations to her, right? If I really thought any of the performances this year were that much better I'd complain more. Of these my favorite is actually Cotillard, but she does already have an Oscar, so I can't get too worked up. The others are all good to fair, but none are all that electric, so it's just a dull category, I'm sorry to say.

Winner: Julianne Moore
Alternate: none

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Simmons, obviously. He won all the precursors, he's winning, it's over. He's also the best, although I did like Hawke, Norton and Ruffalo too. But what can I say? He was great, so good for him.

Winner: J.K. Simmons
Alternate: none

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Laura Dern, Wild
  • Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone, Birdman
  • Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

This one is also signed and delivered for Arquette, and frankly I do NOT think she deserves this, but like in Actress, I don't know who else I'd pick. From this group anyway. They're all good, but no one really stands out that much. Still, Arquette is winning this award because she aged 12 years on film, which literally any other actress could have done, and to be quite honest, some of her scenes are actually badly acted (there's one scene where she yells at her daughter getting out of the car in Boyhood that I cringed while watching). But it's a done deal, so there you go.

Winner: Patricia Arquette
Alternate: none

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Three: Writing, Editing, Foreign, Animated & Documentary

Today we're moving up to the big Best PIcture bellwether categories of writing and editing, as well as foreign language, animated and documentary features to consider.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • Foxcatcher
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Nightcrawler

This is a bit tough. It's Birdman versus Budapest, and they each have two precursors. Birdman won the Globe and Critics Choice, while Budapest took the BAFTA and WGA (for which Birdman wasn't eligible). Normally, this is tied into Best PIcture, so for that reason I'm saying Birdman will win, because that's my Picture prediction as well. If Birdman's winning Picture, I think it also has to take at least a writing or an acting award- and it looks like Keaton won't prevail in Actor, so I think this is the one. In fact, I would say that if Budapest does win this category, it may signal an upset coming later in the night, either in Best Picture or Best Actor.

Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dark Horse: Boyhood (it didn't win any screenplay prizes this season, but this is another one where if you're predicting it for Picture, it'd be wise to maybe also predict it here, since Best Picture and the writing awards are so often linked).

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • American Sniper
  • The Imitation Game
  • Inherent Vice
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Whiplash

I'm predicting The Imitation Game to win this, because it won the WGA and the Scripter precursors. It lost the BAFTA to Theory of Everything, but the BAFTA as a whole liked that movie much better than Imitation Game, even giving it a director nomination (I suspect that's because the Brits aren't shamed by the Stephen Hawking movie the way they are by what they did to their other British hero Alan Turing). Anyway, the Academy preferred Imitation to Theory, giving it eight nominations including director Morten Tyldum (who also got the DGA nod). It's a possibility that Whiplash could win this, since it was frauded into the category (it is not an adapted script, it's original and competed in original at every other awards ceremony), but I'm just going to stick with the movie that has the director nomination, since that nearly always takes it.

Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash

EDITING

  • American Sniper
  • Boyhood
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Whiplash

Okay, so I think this is Boyhood's to lose, because it's a Best Picture favorite, which this usually goes to, plus the whole editing down twelve years of footage thing (and it won the guild award). But Whiplash has a shot, because it won the Bafta, and it has an amazingly edited finale that people may remember when voting for this. It's close, but I already predicted any extra Whiplash support to materialize in Sound, so I'm sticking with Boyhood on this one.

Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: Whiplash

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

  • Ida (Poland)
  • Leviathan (Russia)
  • Timbuktu (Mauritania)
  • Tangerines (Georgia)
  • Wild Tales (Argentina)

You know, I was all set to choose Ida here, since it won the Bafta and is the most acclaimed film, but lately I keep hearing that Wild Tales is the biggest crowd pleaser and much more accessible movie, and it just reminds me of when Argentina's The Secret in Their Eyes beat the very cold (and also black and white) The White Ribbon in this category five years ago. I'm gonna go with my gut here and predict Wild Tales even though I didn't get to see it yet. This is risky (and probably stupid) though, so just know that I'm going against the grain, because Ida is the frontrunner.

Winner: Wild Tales
Alternate: Ida
Dark Horse: Leviathan (it won the Globe, and it could win the Oscar if they want to make a political statement against Russia)

ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Big Hero 6
  • The Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Song of the Sea
  • The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

I thought this would be a close race between Big Hero 6 and Dragon 2, but ever since Dragon took the Globe and won all those Annie awards it seems to be the solid frontrunner. In fact, no other awards body has chosen a different movie because most of them went with the non-nominated Lego Movie. So Dragon it is (and it's a good choice, because it's a very good movie and the first one was snubbed back in '09). On the other hand, Big Hero 6 has won guild awards from the visual effects and sound branches, and you never want to count out a Disney movie...I'm going with Dragon because I think it's the better movie, but I could see Big Hero 6 pulling off an upset here.

Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6
Dark Horse: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (unlikely, but since Studio Ghibli has won this before, I'd give it about a 5% chance)

DOCUMENTARY

  • Citizenfour
  • Virunga
  • Last Days in Vietnam
  • Finding Vivian Maier
  • The Salt of the Earth

Laura Poitras seems to have it in the bag, having won the DGA and BAFTA for Citizenfour. The truth is, without an art/music nominee in the group (which the non-nominated Roger Ebert film Life Itself would have been) I just think the Academy will vote for the one with the most buzz here, and that's Citizenfour.

Winner: Citizenfour
Alternate: Virunga (the Netflix doc has been gaining steam lately with a lot of press from people like Bill Clinton and it is heartbreaking- a vote for this film would really feel like you're contributing to a cause, I just wonder if enough voters will have seen it)

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part Two: Makeup, Music, Costumes, Sets & Cinematography

More techs today, as the below the line branches weigh in and I make my final predictions. Most of these categories is where I believe The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to clean up, so let's get to it.

HAIRSTYLING & MAKEUP

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Foxcatcher

So, I kinda doubt Foxcatcher for this, because seriously, it's just the one false nose, right? Guardians and Budapest have more makeup due to their larger casts, and therefore a better chance. I'm going to go with Budapest because it seems to be favored as the tech heavy nominee of this year's Best Picture contenders, ala Hugo and Life of Pi. Expect them to mark it down for many awards.

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy

ORIGINAL SCORE

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Interstellar
  • The Imitation Game
  • The Theory of Everything
  • Mr. Turner

This one's iffy- I think Budapest again, but the composer, Alexandre Desplat actually has two scores in the mix, having done The Imitation Game as well, and he's overdue with eight nominations overall now (not that voters necessarily know that- I'm sure that's an Oscar geek stat). Theory of Everything won the Golden Globe for this, so that one has a chance as well. I still think Grand Budapest, but it's probably a tight race with the other two.

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: The Theory of Everything
Dark Horse: The Imitation Game

ORIGINAL SONG

selma-march.jpg
  • "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
  • "Glory" (Selma)
  • "Grateful" (Beyond the Lights)
  • "Everything is Awesome" (The Lego Movie)
  • "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me)

Ugh. This category pisses me off. Selma's winning this, but not because it's the best song in the bunch (it isn't), but because of the controversy surrounding the snubbing of the film in Actor and Director, as well as any other tech nominations. They have to give it something, and this is the only place they can. Which sucks for the actual best song in the category (cough, Lost Stars, cough), and any of the others who might have stood a chance.

Winner: "Glory"
Alternate: "Everything is Awesome" (also due to The Lego Movie's snub in animated feature)

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Mr. Turner
  • Into the Woods
  • Inherent Vice
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Maleficent

Chalk up another win for Budapest- costumes can sometimes go to the biggest, fanciest, most outlandish designs, no matter if the movie is a heavy Picture contender or not, which would speak well for Into the Woods' chances, but I do believe Budapest will run the table with these awards, as it did at the Bafta's.

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Into the Woods

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • Mr. Turner
  • Into the Woods
  • Interstellar

You got it, The Grand Budapest Hotel. This particular one is the most surefire win of the night, actually. If you saw the movie you'd know what I'm talking about. It took long enough, but a Wes Anderson movie will finally win for the incredible production design that inhabits all of his films.

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Interstellar (although I almost don't even know what to pick for second place here, since it doesn't really matter)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Mr. Turner
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Ida
  • Birdman
  • Unbroken

This is one tech that will go to something else though- Birdman is the heavy favorite, due to the one take illusion pulled off by DP Emanuel Lubezki. It will make him a back to back winner in the category, after taking it for Gravity last year.

Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dark Horse: Ida (Sometimes black and white images can really pull people in).

Blu-Ray Pick of the Week: "The Tale of the Princess Kaguya" (2014)

So, unfortunately this movie doesn't seem to have much of a chance at winning the Oscar for animated feature this weekend (it should be the frontrunner), but it is by far the best animated film of last year, and one of the best movies of the year period (as you'll see when I finally post my top ten of 2014 this Saturday). It's a gorgeously drawn story filled with magic and princesses that's based on a Japanese folk legend, and everyone should see it, not just kids. It's a work of artistic perfection.

Trailer (sadly this is the dubbed version, as I couldn't find one with subtitles, but I guess if English speaking kids are going to able to see this movie at all it's going to have be the dubbed one anyway):

2015 Oscar Predictions, Part One: Effects, Sound and Shorts

Time for final Oscar predictions! This is going to be much more of a crapshoot on my part than last year, I'm afraid. I'm not totally confident this time, with the Best Picture and Director race seemingly very close- that unfortunately affects how the entire ballot unfolds most of the time, where they want to spread the wealth around, etc. So, let's start with the down-ballot tech categories, which might be among the easier to predict this year.

VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Interstellar
  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier
  • X-Men: Days of the Future Past
  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

So, with this category we have two precursors. Apes won the guild award, surprisingly, while Interstellar took the Bafta effects prize, but I feel that the Academy will go for Interstellar as well here, being the supposed "classier" choice. Although I'd love to see Apes win it, as I think it's more deserving.

Winner: Interstellar
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

  • Interstellar
  • Unbroken
  • Birdman
  • American Sniper
  • Whiplash

I shouldn't do this, but I'm going to make a slightly left field prediction here and go with Whiplash. It won the Bafta, and music-oriented movies sometimes win this award. Plus, there's a lot of passion for Whiplash among the Academy apparently, so I think it may manifest itself here over the war sounds of American Sniper. Although, Birdman could also win this, because it won the guild award, and sometimes the Best Picture could take a sound award. This one's a best guess scenario.

Winner: Whiplash
Alternate: American Sniper
Dark Horse: Birdman

SOUND EDITING

  • The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
  • American Sniper
  • Birdman
  • Unbroken
  • Interstellar

No Whiplash here, so I'd say American Sniper is the obvious pick. War movies often win these sound awards, and it took the guild.

Winner: American Sniper
Alternate: Birdman

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
  • Joanna
  • Our Curse
  • The Reaper
  • White Earth

Everyone's favorite Oscar pool killers, the short categories. Well, I hear Crisis Hotline is the most emotional one of the bunch, so I'm going with that one.

Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Alternate: Joanna

LIVE ACTION SHORT

  • Aya
  • Boogaloo and Graham
  • Butter Lamp
  • Parveneh
  • The Phone Call

For this one, The Phone Call has name actors in it, like Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent, so that's what I'm placing my money on. I also hear Parveneh is very moving, so that could be a spoiler.

Winner: The Phone Call
Alternate: Parveneh

ANIMATED SHORT

  • The Bigger Picture
  • The Dam Keeper
  • Feast
  • Me and My Moulton
  • A Single Life

Okay, for once I've actually seen all of these, and Disney's Feast is by far the best one of the bunch. Of course, I predicted Disney last year and they lost, but maybe that means they come through this time. It deserves to, because the rest are only okay, while Feast is cute and likable. The thing I learned about the shorts last year is that most people don't even vote on these categories, so the winners probably will be determined by what the people in the animation branch liked best out of the five, and I just don't really see why they'd like anything else.

Winner: Feast
Alternate: The Dam Keeper (this would only win because it's the longest and the animation style is cool, but the story isn't anything to write home about)