Time for final Oscar predictions! This is going to be much more of a crapshoot on my part than last year, I'm afraid. I'm not totally confident this time, with the Best Picture and Director race seemingly very close- that unfortunately affects how the entire ballot unfolds most of the time, where they want to spread the wealth around, etc. So, let's start with the down-ballot tech categories, which might be among the easier to predict this year.
- Guardians of the Galaxy
- Captain America: The Winter Soldier
- X-Men: Days of the Future Past
- Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
So, with this category we have two precursors. Apes won the guild award, surprisingly, while Interstellar took the Bafta effects prize, but I feel that the Academy will go for Interstellar as well here, being the supposed "classier" choice. Although I'd love to see Apes win it, as I think it's more deserving.
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
- American Sniper
I shouldn't do this, but I'm going to make a slightly left field prediction here and go with Whiplash. It won the Bafta, and music-oriented movies sometimes win this award. Plus, there's a lot of passion for Whiplash among the Academy apparently, so I think it may manifest itself here over the war sounds of American Sniper. Although, Birdman could also win this, because it won the guild award, and sometimes the Best Picture could take a sound award. This one's a best guess scenario.
Alternate: American Sniper
Dark Horse: Birdman
- The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
- American Sniper
No Whiplash here, so I'd say American Sniper is the obvious pick. War movies often win these sound awards, and it took the guild.
Winner: American Sniper
- Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
- Our Curse
- The Reaper
- White Earth
Everyone's favorite Oscar pool killers, the short categories. Well, I hear Crisis Hotline is the most emotional one of the bunch, so I'm going with that one.
Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
LIVE ACTION SHORT
- Boogaloo and Graham
- Butter Lamp
- The Phone Call
For this one, The Phone Call has name actors in it, like Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent, so that's what I'm placing my money on. I also hear Parveneh is very moving, so that could be a spoiler.
Winner: The Phone Call
- The Bigger Picture
- The Dam Keeper
- Me and My Moulton
- A Single Life
Okay, for once I've actually seen all of these, and Disney's Feast is by far the best one of the bunch. Of course, I predicted Disney last year and they lost, but maybe that means they come through this time. It deserves to, because the rest are only okay, while Feast is cute and likable. The thing I learned about the shorts last year is that most people don't even vote on these categories, so the winners probably will be determined by what the people in the animation branch liked best out of the five, and I just don't really see why they'd like anything else.
Alternate: The Dam Keeper (this would only win because it's the longest and the animation style is cool, but the story isn't anything to write home about)