New Look at Zachary Levi in 'Shazam!'

I originally thought this comedic take on Shazam might be interesting, if they did a Big-esque story, but this new trailer just makes it look kinda stupid. DC movies are a crapshoot as it is, so I no longer have any curiosity about it. Maybe the movie is better than the trailer, but expectations are always at rock bottom for WB’s superhero movies. Plus I think they should have just done the full Big thing and had him be a teen in an adult body- I don’t get why he’s a separate entity from the kid.

Hellboy Tries to Save the World in New Red-Band Trailer

I thought the first trailer for this made it look like it could be amusing, but this new one is mostly a bunch of CGI mess. Ick. The Guillermo del Toro ones were good because they weren’t just your typical action heavy comic book movies- they were sort of quirky and eccentric and had real character to them. This one doesn’t look like that so much. Too bad.

X-Men Return in New Trailer for 'Dark Phoenix'

After being delayed a whole year for reshoots and now having filmed almost two years ago, Dark Phoenix is finally scheduled to come out in June, but this does not look very good to me. I don’t think making Sophie Turner’s Jean Grey the main character and villain is a smart move at all (was anyone invested in her after X-Men: Apocalypse?), and it’s now kind of absurd that having yet another ten year time jump makes it 30 years that are supposed to have passed between this movie and 2011’s First Class. I’m sorry, 30 years? They haven’t even tried making them look older. Professor X and Magneto are literally supposed to be about 60 years old here. I don’t have a good feeling about this one.

'Green Book' Wins Best Picture at the 91st Academy Awards

Ugh! Well, I’m not gonna lie. This was a really big disappointment for me, given how mediocre I thought this movie was. But the preferential ballot strikes again and the PGA continues to be the most important guild of the big three because of it. I also had a bad feeling after Green Book won screenplay and then Congressman John Lewis was brought out to introduce the clip from the movie, which was the last Best Picture nominee announced. I see what you did there, AMPAS. As for the show itself, it moved pretty smoothly without a host, actually. It was relatively speedy (for the Oscars), at 3 hours and 15 minutes, no unnecessary montages or annoying host bits needed to waste time. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s performance of “Shallow” was my favorite moment of the night, followed closely by Olivia Colman’s huge surprise win for Best Actress and her adorably frazzled speech (poor Glenn! I doubt she’ll get another shot now).

2019 OSCAR WINNERS

• BEST PICTURE: Green Book

• BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

• BEST ACTRESS: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

• BEST ACTOR: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: BlacKkKlansman

• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Green Book

• BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roma

• BEST EDITING: Bohemian Rhapsody

• BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Black Panther

• BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Shallow,” A Star is Born

• BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Black Panther

• BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther

• BEST SOUND MIXING: Bohemian Rhapsody

• BEST SOUND EDITING: Bohemian Rhapsody

• BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Vice

• BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: First Man

• BEST DOCUMENTARY: Free Solo

• BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Roma

• BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

• BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Period. End of Sentence.

• BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: Skin

• BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Bao

I went 18/24 in my predictions, not such a great year for me. My risk in supporting actress did not pay off, as the votes for The Favourite went into the Best Actress category instead, which I did not see coming. It was a year with a lot of diversity in the winners- women, the first Arab-American in Best Actor, a record number of African-American winners all across the board, with firsts in production design, costume design and animated feature, and Spike Lee finally got his long overdue Oscar. That was a great moment as well, but of course the year that he finally wins is the year that Green Book, or Driving Miss Daisy redux (and even that’s a better movie, by the way!) has to take Best Picture. I say get rid of the preferential ballot and go back to five nominees, but maybe keep the no host thing going. The show moved quickly and didn’t drag- and that’s a plus.

The biggest upset of the night was Olivia Colman beating out Glenn Close for Best Actress- no one saw that coming, not even her

The Movie Seasons Top 10 of 2018

Here it is! Finally, my top ten favorite films of last year. You should watch every one.

1. ROMA

A stirring ode to 1970’s Mexico, childhood memories and the women who ruled one household in the middle of it all, seen through the cinematic sweep of a tremendous visual storyteller. One of the great movies ever made.

2. SHOPLIFTERS

An enthralling story of a family that starts off as one thing, then becomes something else and knocks you sideways when it does. Powerful, heartfelt, emotional and deeply human filmmaking.

3. BLACK PANTHER

The cultural phenomenon of 2018 was the rare blockbuster that managed to tell a good story that had actual meaning to it, along with visual pizazz and a great cast of characters. It felt like something new packaged in something familiar, and empowering to anyone who sees it.

4. THE DEATH OF STALIN

The best comedy of last year was a dark historical farce that threw so many zingers at you it requires multiple viewings to keep up. A terrific ensemble led by Steve Buscemi manages to wring absurd humor out of Stalin’s purges while never diminishing the horror of it all, through a swift and compact 90 minutes.

5. FIRST MAN

Neil Armstrong’s walk on the moon is given the epic treatment in a serious minded, sensitive biopic that delivers a partial study of the enigmatic man himself, who always kept the world at a distance (literally). A majestic score assists some of the most thrillingly directed cinematic sequences of the year.

6. A STAR IS BORN

The fourth remake of an oft-told Hollywood story feels new again, and Bradley Cooper effortlessly delivers this musical melodrama awash with romance and old-fashioned tearjerking entertainment. Loved it.

7. BLACKKKLANSMAN

Spike Lee can still pack a punch and does it again with a buddy cop movie, mixing comedy and drama with the urgency of the moment, as no other film of the year spoke more to the current climate than this 1970’s set reminder of what America is.

8. MINDING THE GAP

A documentary that painfully, almost accidentally, captures the sickness that is passed on from one male generation to another, especially in economically challenged areas in the middle of the country. A timely, impactful look at what drives many of the problems we as a society face in ignoring this reality, and watching these men grow up to become the transmitters of inherited suffering.

9. ISLE OF DOGS

Wes Anderson’s love letter to Japan is a the adorable story of a boy and his dog(s), that for once blends a story that has its own hints in reality, with nods to political corruption, protest and the power of resistance, along with a visually dazzling world of varying furry friends and bright colors.

10. FIRST REFORMED

An allegory of a dying man obsessed by a dying world, who lingers on and asks questions no one seems to have the answers to. The world is not an imagined one, but the real one that we all inhabit, which makes this story sting all the worse. One of the most original and thought provoking films of the year, with one of the most hardhitting final scenes ever.

5 HONORABLE MENTIONS: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE; THE SISTERS BROTHERS; IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK; PRIVATE LIFE; BURNING

'If Beale Street Could Talk' Tops the Independent Spirit Awards

In a nice alternative to Oscar night tomorrow, the Indie Spirits took place this afternoon, as usual in its tent on the beach, this time with Aubrey Plaza hosting. They went with the opposite of Oscar, showering Beale Street with love, as well as Eighth Grade, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and Can You Ever Forgive Me? Ethan Hawke and Glenn Close won the lead acting awards, while Regina King and Richard E. Grant got the supporting trophies.

2019 INDIE SPIRIT WINNERS

• BEST FEATURE: If Beale Street Could Talk

• BEST DIRECTOR: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

• BEST FEMALE LEAD: Glenn Close, The Wife

• BEST MALE LEAD: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

• BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

• BEST SUPPORTING MALE: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• BEST SCREENPLAY: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: Roma

• BEST FIRST FEATURE: Sorry to Bother You

• BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY: Eighth Grade

• BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Suspiria

• BEST EDITING: You Were Never Really Here

• BEST DOCUMENTARY: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Richard E. Grant finally wins an award this season for his performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Stanley Donen 1924-2019

Stanley Donen died today at the age of 94. One of Old Hollywood’s most prominent directors, associated in particular with the golden age of movie musicals, but who also made films in every genre (dramas, comedies, thrillers), was responsible for a litany of classics, including On the Town (1949), Royal Wedding (1951), Singin’ in the Rain (1952), Seven Brides For Seven Brothers (1954), It’s Always Fair Weather (1955), Funny Face (1957), The Pajama Game (1957), Charade (1963), Two for the Road (1967), and Bedazzled (1967). His longtime collaboration with frequent co-director Gene Kelly (right) produced some of the great movies ever made, like Singin’ in the Rain, but he was also the choreographer for films like Cover Girl (1944) and Anchors Aweigh (1945) before becoming a director. He started out his career in the chorus line on Broadway in the 1940’s (where he met Kelly), before moving to Hollywood to become a choreographer, then filmmaker. He won a lifetime achievement Oscar in 1998, but amazingly, was never nominated for a competitive one in his career. The movies are better today because of his contribution to them.

Trailer for Singin’ in the Rain:

Trailer for Funny Face (one of his favorite actresses was Audrey Hepburn, who starred in three different genres of films for him- this, Charade and Two For the Road):

Donen’s Honorary Oscar acceptance speech:

'Holmes & Watson,' Donald Trump Top Razzie Winners

On this Oscar weekend, the Razzie winners were announced, with Holmes & Watson taking Worst Picture and Director, while Donald Trump collects a couple Razzies for being himself in two documentaries. Oscar nominee Melissa McCarthy probably won’t win on Sunday, but she’ll have a Razzie for Worst Actress to take home with her at least (pretty sure this happened to Sandra Bullock the year she was up for The Blind Side too- her Razzie winner was All About Steve. Remember that one?)

2019 RAZZIE WINNERS

• Worst Picture: Holmes & Watson

• Worst Actress: Melissa McCarthy, The Happytime Murders & Life of the Party

• Worst Actor: Donald Trump, Death of a Nation & Fahrenheit 11/9

• Worst Supporting Actor: John C. Reilly, Holmes & Watson

• Worst Supporting Actress: Kellyanne Conway, Fahrenheit 11/9

• Worst Screen Combo: Donald Trump and his self-perpetuating pettiness, Death of a Nation & Fahrenheit 11/9

• Worst Remake, Ripoff or Sequel: Holmes & Watson

• Worst Director: Etan Cohen, Holmes & Watson

• Worst Screenplay: Fifty Shades Freed

Melissa McCarthy takes Worst Actress for two movies the same year she’s up for an Oscar

2019 Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Director and Picture

Here we go- the big ones. Read on for my picks.

BEST DIRECTOR

DGA winner Alfonso Cuaron can expect to win handily on Sunday night

• Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

• Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

• Adam McKay, Vice

• Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Alfonso Cuaron has swept the entire season, so he should pretty easily pick up his second directing Oscar in five years. You could make a case for Spike Lee though- his first ever directing nomination in a thirty year career could make people want to vote for him (he’d also be the first black director to win this- that’s something that still hasn’t happened, believe it or not). I do think though that Roma is seen as an undeniable cinematic achievement that must be rewarded, especially for its directing, so this is Cuaron’s. He also won the DGA, which is pretty much always the winner in Best Director.

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Alternate: Spike Lee

BEST PICTURE

Not locked at all, but I’m going with my gut (and my heart, because it’s also my favorite)

• BlacKkKlansman

• Black Panther

• Bohemian Rhapsody

• The Favourite

• Green Book

• Roma

• A Star is Born

• Vice

Green Book has to be the second choice, due to its PGA win

Okay, so here we go. Best Picture. Everyone thinks it should be Green Book vs. Roma. The PGA winner (which has matched Oscar the most ever since they started using the same kind of ranked ballot voting system, something that is only done for Best Picture and no other category) versus the DGA and BAFTA winner. It all comes down to two things- the preferential ballot and whether the Academy’s new membership (a third of its members have been added in the last five years and they’re mostly younger, international and much more ethnically diverse, since the Academy was made up of 90% older white men for most of its existence until recently) makes enough of a difference for the result to differ from the PGA winner. I’m honestly not sure. The movie that tends to benefit from the preferential ballot is one that’s not divisive, one that can garner a lot of #2 and #3 votes. Green Book seems to fit that profile- well liked, accessible, middlebrow, unchallenging. That’s obviously how it won the PGA. Roma being black and white, foreign-language (it would make history, since no Foreign Film has ever won Best Picture), and a Netflix movie could mean it’s more divisive- it could get a lot of #1 votes but also rank last on a lot of ballots. 

It’s unlikely, but there is a lot of passion for Bohemian Rhapsody- it will probably be high on people’s ballots

As for a case for any of the other nominees- it’s certainly possible, especially this year. The crazy thing about this year is that every single major guild- the DGA, PGA, SAG, ACE and WGA, went to completely different movies, which is an unprecedented occurrence. DGA= Roma, PGA= Green Book, SAG= Black Panther, ACE= Bohemian Rhapsody, and WGA= Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? And once we’re talking about a new Academy membership that doesn’t match the demos of any of the guilds anymore, we’re really in uncharted territory. Theoretically, anything could happen on this ballot. I can see a case being made for BlacKkKlansman, which has all the requisite stats going into the night, with nods for picture, director, screenplay, acting, and editing. It was nominated for DGA, SAG and BAFTA, so even the Brits like it. It could be a consensus choice, placing high on a lot of ballots, with lots of #2 and #3 votes across the board. But… it hasn’t won a single guild award going into Oscar night. 

I think Black Panther is the real stealth possibility, as SAG winner and a potential consensus vote

The other option is Black Panther- that was the SAG winner, so it’s got the actors behind it, and that’s normally huge, especially in split years. The actors branch is the largest branch in the Academy. The only issue there is that it does not come into the night with support in the other most important categories like directing, acting or writing. And it didn’t get a DGA nomination or many nominations at all at BAFTA. As for any other movie, I suppose there could still be a chance that A Star is Born will place high on multiple ballots, but the movie seems to have faded so much over the season, failing to win anything besides some awards for its music. And The Favourite was strong with the British Academy, but was also not nominated at DGA or SAG for ensemble, while Vice feels like an also ran, and Bohemian Rhapsody was lucky to be nominated at all, given the bad reviews and the scandal surrounding its disgraced director Bryan Singer (although passion for that movie is pretty high, I admit). But my instinct is telling me that Roma is going to make history and take the top award. 

Winner: Roma

Alternate: Green Book (I’m actually shaky on this placement, but the PGA winner can never be considered a dark horse)

Dark Horse: Black Panther (It’s still the SAG winner, and the new membership could help it rise on the ballot over even Green Book- we’ll see what happens)

Lightning Round Reviews 2018: February, Part 4

Yay, I’m done! Well, sort of. I’ve now officially seen as many movies as I needed to to make my top ten of 2018, which will be coming on Saturday. At the end of March I’ll be posting one more official batch of movie reviews from last year, but none of them made my top ten, so it’s just to finish things off (I’m a completist). Thank you for reading!

BORDER * * * (Dir. Ali Abbasi)

Ever think you’d want to see trolls in love?

If you’ve ever wondered how the mythology of trolls would manifest itself in the grounded, real world that we live in, this dark fantasy is your chance to find out. A very unsettling, strange yet intriguing journey of self-discovery is at its heart, as Tina, a woman who appears to have some kind of facial deformity or physical condition, works as a security guard on the Swedish border. She’s good at her job because she can literally smell if someone has something hidden- not just drugs or illegal goods but the shame, guilt and rage that swells inside a person. She puts her unusual and very handy skills to use in helping the police track down pedophiles, but one day she meets someone coming into the country whom she’s instantly drawn to. His name is Vore, and he’s just like her, a man who seems to have the same condition, who also likes to eat insects and can intrinsically communicate with wild animals. Tina has felt alone all her life, but no longer. Vore teaches her what she really is and how she really fits into this world- and even though it’s nothing she’d imagined, somehow she’s always known. This movie glides at a slow enough pace so that you can wonder what it’s all about and where it’s going, maintaining a mysterious, slightly surreal atmosphere that reaches its peak in one of the wildest sex scenes you’ve ever seen on film. It’s not a frightening movie though- it is in fact, sympathetic as you grow to identify with Tina, who is a highly original female character, a heroine you can even imagine in other settings. I can picture it now- the troll who helps cops find crooks could be a great pilot in this age where any idea can be adapted into a series.

MARY, QUEEN OF SCOTS * * 1/2 (Dir. Josie Rourke)

Saoirse Ronan tries on a Scottish accent for her take on Mary vs. Elizabeth

As costume dramas go, you could do worse than Mary, Queen of Scots. It has a very somber, grave tone, yet doesn’t dwell too much on politics and takes the history seriously. It also benefits from a spirited performance from Saoirse Ronan as the fiery, 18-year-old queen who had it in her to challenge her cousin Elizabeth to the throne of England and never regretted it, even as she went to her death. But it also feels a bit flat and drab, unfortunately draped with a dark, rusty color palette that may be intended to evoke the dreariness of 16th century Scotland but feels more like we’re trapped in a series of rooms filtered through a dirty window. Despite strong performances and an entertaining battle of wills, this isn’t a film that really sticks with you after it’s over- there are not enough memorable scenes or gripping moments in Mary’s life as depicted (one exception may be the brutal execution of her male chamber attendant, but even that scene goes on a bit too long, as if director Josie Rourke knew this was the most lively scene in the movie and wanted to milk the gore). Margot Robbie is mostly fine as Elizabeth, but let’s talk about the makeup for a second. For some reason, every scene piles on an increasingly distracting makeup job (smallpox, then the smallpox scars, then the powdered face/wig, terrible haircut, etc.) that holds her back from disappearing into the role like those who came before her (Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett in particular). Instead, you keep wondering if this was their way of de-beautifying Robbie as much as possible. In the end, the message of the film is that these two fierce queens could have had it all if the hapless men around them hadn’t gotten in their way so much and derailed their plans for greatness. Isn’t that always the way of it.

SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE * * * 1/2 (Dir. Bob Perischetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman)

Lots of Spider-Men finally make for a different kind of superhero movie

For anyone who’s wanted an American animated film to actually look, feel and sound different from the consistent Disney/Pixar corporate model of family fun, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse comes as an exuberant, joyful surprise. In fact, it’s the first good Spider-Man movie Sony has released since Spider-Man 2 in 2004. From a story and screenplay by Phil Lord, of Lego Movie fame, this movie is a vibrant visual experience that looks like nothing else you’ve seen in the world of animation for a long time. The screen is painted by a comic book inspired aesthetic filled with colors that pop and a schematic that sees characters move around and interact in different rhythms. Side-swipes and air bubbles pop up to denote inner thoughts and the pace, while quick, is not so Lego Movie frantic as that franchise, leaving room for an emotional story with fully realized characters. The lead is teenager Miles Morales, who lives in a world where Spider-Man has been at his job for long while. When the hero dies suddenly, and Miles himself is bitten by a radioactive spider, he must figure out how to take over the mantle, but he has a lot of help, thanks to an inter-dimensional breach that brings alternate universe Spider-Men (and women) into his world to help him save the day and face the challenges of his own origin story. Such a creative and innovative vision that this movie presents is paired with an original idea that finally puts a real spin on the standard superhero origin and makes a joke out of it. There are a myriad of obscure comic book references but not an overload of Lord and Miller humor, thanks to sharp direction (from three directors) and a commitment to Miles as a real kid with feelings and a desire to do his best by his new powers and his family (we know the credo by now). My favorite alt-Spider-Man is an over the hill Peter Parker (Jake Johnson), who steals the show as a laconic mentor type, but he’s almost shown up by Nicolas Cage as “Spider-Noir,” in a hilarious sight gag that makes the most of Cage’s famous eccentric energy. American animators are rarely allowed by the studios to take the kinds of chances this movie does, both visually and storywise, but it all pays off beautifully in the pure dynamic pop art creation that resulted from the risks.

EVERYBODY KNOWS * * 1/2 (Dir. Asghar Farhadi)

An attractive couple no matter what the crisis

Asghar Farhadi can weave a web of human drama like nobody’s business. The characters and the family situations he sets up in his films and then strips down to their core always make for a fascinating, intriguing mix of mystery, revelation and the questioning of human nature. Everybody Knows is his first Spanish-language film, starring Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem as just two of the people caught up in a criminal incident that occurs at a family wedding in a small town in Spain. The event in question leads to a pretty straightforward whodunit involving a large ensemble cast and various potential suspects in a family where long buried resentments and issues rise to the surface in the wake of crisis. The actors bring their A-game (as they usually do for Farhadi), but this time, the resulting conclusion is a bit underwhelming compared to his recent films. Cruz and Bardem are compelling as always, but a crucial reveal towards the end of the movie is fairly predictable, and the tidy result of this mystery leaves you wondering, was that it? Farhadi usually has deeper themes lying in wait under the surface of his family dramas that keep them from being lurid or overly melodramatic, but those deeper issues seem absent from this one, which leads me to think that in the absence of a larger meaning, the mystery itself needed to be more melodramatic in order to carry more weight as a thriller. The story is interesting as you watch it, but you’re left waiting for a dramatic punch that never quite comes.

Taron Egerton Takes on Elton John in 'Rocketman'

So after the incredible success of Bohemian Rhapsody, are we in for a wave of musical biopics about 70’s rock stars? The next one up is Rocketman, which looks like it’s pretty much following the Bohemian formula (it’s also from director Dexter Fletcher, the guy who finished up the movie after Bryan Singer was fired). But apparently this one will have big fantasy musical numbers in it, and I do appreciate that Taron Egerton does his own singing (he sounds good!). It’s coming out May 31st.

2019 Oscar Predictions, Part 4: Acting

Onto the acting categories. I basically feel that there are two locks here, one frontrunner and one wild card. Read on for my predictions.

BEST ACTOR

Can’t help but think people are voting more for Freddie Mercury than Rami Malek

• Christian Bale, Vice

• Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

So, there’s really no point in predicting anyone other than Rami Malek. The most important precursors were all won by him, from the Golden Globe to the SAG and BAFTA awards. Christian Bale won the Critics Choice award, but the industry groups of SAG and BAFTA are far more important. I happen to not be a big fan of this performance (Cooper is probably my favorite of this bunch actually), but I can’t argue with the precursors. It’s his. I also just want to note that this will be the 16th time in the last 20 years that Best Actor went to the lead role in a biopic. Yeah. Looks like the key to winning awards is playing a real life person- after all, if there’s no actual person to compare it to, how do you know it’s good acting, right? 

Winner: Rami Malek

Alternate: Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS

Hopefully, 7th time’s the charm for Glenn Close

• Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

• Glenn Close, The Wife

• Olivia Colman, The Favourite

• Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Okay, so this win I’m pretty sure is Glenn Close’s, but unlike in Best Actor, there is some chance for an upset. Olivia Colman won the BAFTA, which has occasionally prefaced an Oscar win in the past in this category. British voters love that performance (even though it’s a supporting role, at least based on screen time). But I’m going to say that the SAG win weighs things more in Glenn’s favor this year, mostly as a career award (although she was very good in The Wife). As for anyone else, it’s not likely.

Winner: Glenn Close

Alternate: Olivia Colman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali will win his 2nd Oscar in just 3 years

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book

• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

• Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• Sam Rockwell, Vice

This is like the Best Actor race, except even more locked. Ali has won virtually everything, the BFCA, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA. He will win this award- the only possible reason he wouldn’t is if anyone thought it was too soon after his first Oscar win (for Moonlight two years ago). But they won’t- Green Book is still popular and well liked, despite the various controversies surrounding it, and none of that falls on the actors. It’s hard to even make a case for anyone else here, because it’s so unlikely.

Winner: Mahershala Ali

Alternate: Sam Elliott (I pick him mostly due to his veteran status as a character actor for over 50 years, and if anyone wants to give A Star is Born recognition in a major category, this could be the place)

Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant (also a working actor who’s been around since the 1980s- he’s also been campaigning pretty heavily this season, so it’s a possibility)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Rachel Weisz is really the lead of this movie, which could work to her advantage, and her last Oscar win in this category was almost 15 years ago

• Amy Adams, Vice

• Marina de Tavira, Roma

• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

• Emma Stone, The Favourite

• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Okay, now this is the one I’m actually really shaky on. This category in particular is often ripe for upsets, if they happen in the acting races. Regina King was the critics favorite and early frontrunner- she won the BFCA and Golden Globe award. BUT…she was then not even nominated at the actual industry awards- SAG and BAFTA. That alone shows weakness, at least on the part of her film- are enough people watching Beale Street? The SAG award went to a non-nominee, so that’s irrelevant this year. Then the BAFTA went to a previous winner in this category, Rachel Weisz, and that gives me pause. The Favourite IS being seen, it has 10 nominations to Beale Street’s three, and British voters will vote for that film somewhere. Rachel Weisz is really a lead role in the film too, being frauded into supporting here. There’s a real chance she takes it. And if vote splitting occurs between her and co-star Emma Stone, there’s also a chance for a stunner in Roma’s Marina de Tavira coming out of nowhere and winning, since Roma also has 10 nominations and is a heavy frontrunner for Best Picture, which often takes an acting award in a supporting category. The only real argument for King after those industry snubs is that people in Hollywood like her so much they’re just checking off her name, but if she wins she’ll be only the second person to ever win after being snubbed by SAG and BAFTA (the first was Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock, way back in 2000, almost twenty years ago). I’m torn.

Winner: Rachel Weisz (I’m going for it on an upset winner)

Alternate: Regina King 

Dark Horse: Marina de Tavira