Onto the acting categories. I basically feel that there are two locks here, one frontrunner and one wild card. Read on for my predictions.
BEST ACTOR
Can’t help but think people are voting more for Freddie Mercury than Rami Malek
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
So, there’s really no point in predicting anyone other than Rami Malek. The most important precursors were all won by him, from the Golden Globe to the SAG and BAFTA awards. Christian Bale won the Critics Choice award, but the industry groups of SAG and BAFTA are far more important. I happen to not be a big fan of this performance (Cooper is probably my favorite of this bunch actually), but I can’t argue with the precursors. It’s his. I also just want to note that this will be the 16th time in the last 20 years that Best Actor went to the lead role in a biopic. Yeah. Looks like the key to winning awards is playing a real life person- after all, if there’s no actual person to compare it to, how do you know it’s good acting, right?
Winner: Rami Malek
Alternate: Christian Bale
BEST ACTRESS
Hopefully, 7th time’s the charm for Glenn Close
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Okay, so this win I’m pretty sure is Glenn Close’s, but unlike in Best Actor, there is some chance for an upset. Olivia Colman won the BAFTA, which has occasionally prefaced an Oscar win in the past in this category. British voters love that performance (even though it’s a supporting role, at least based on screen time). But I’m going to say that the SAG win weighs things more in Glenn’s favor this year, mostly as a career award (although she was very good in The Wife). As for anyone else, it’s not likely.
Winner: Glenn Close
Alternate: Olivia Colman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali will win his 2nd Oscar in just 3 years
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
This is like the Best Actor race, except even more locked. Ali has won virtually everything, the BFCA, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA. He will win this award- the only possible reason he wouldn’t is if anyone thought it was too soon after his first Oscar win (for Moonlight two years ago). But they won’t- Green Book is still popular and well liked, despite the various controversies surrounding it, and none of that falls on the actors. It’s hard to even make a case for anyone else here, because it’s so unlikely.
Winner: Mahershala Ali
Alternate: Sam Elliott (I pick him mostly due to his veteran status as a character actor for over 50 years, and if anyone wants to give A Star is Born recognition in a major category, this could be the place)
Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant (also a working actor who’s been around since the 1980s- he’s also been campaigning pretty heavily this season, so it’s a possibility)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rachel Weisz is really the lead of this movie, which could work to her advantage, and her last Oscar win in this category was almost 15 years ago
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Okay, now this is the one I’m actually really shaky on. This category in particular is often ripe for upsets, if they happen in the acting races. Regina King was the critics favorite and early frontrunner- she won the BFCA and Golden Globe award. BUT…she was then not even nominated at the actual industry awards- SAG and BAFTA. That alone shows weakness, at least on the part of her film- are enough people watching Beale Street? The SAG award went to a non-nominee, so that’s irrelevant this year. Then the BAFTA went to a previous winner in this category, Rachel Weisz, and that gives me pause. The Favourite IS being seen, it has 10 nominations to Beale Street’s three, and British voters will vote for that film somewhere. Rachel Weisz is really a lead role in the film too, being frauded into supporting here. There’s a real chance she takes it. And if vote splitting occurs between her and co-star Emma Stone, there’s also a chance for a stunner in Roma’s Marina de Tavira coming out of nowhere and winning, since Roma also has 10 nominations and is a heavy frontrunner for Best Picture, which often takes an acting award in a supporting category. The only real argument for King after those industry snubs is that people in Hollywood like her so much they’re just checking off her name, but if she wins she’ll be only the second person to ever win after being snubbed by SAG and BAFTA (the first was Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock, way back in 2000, almost twenty years ago). I’m torn.
Winner: Rachel Weisz (I’m going for it on an upset winner)
Alternate: Regina King
Dark Horse: Marina de Tavira
