The official AMPAS shortlist for documentaries is here, which tells us the five nominees for Best Documentary at the Oscars will be coming from this list of 15 contenders.
Art and Craft
The Case against 8
Citizen Koch
CitizenFour
Finding Vivian Maier
The Internet’s Own Boy
Jodorowsky’s Dune
Keep On Keepin’ On
The Kill Team
Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself
The Overnighters
The Salt of the Earth
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
Virunga
Most of the expected contenders made it in, except for the highly praised doc called Red Army, about hockey players during the Soviet Union. That's a major snub here. Documentaries aren't really my expertise, I only get to see a couple of them a year (if that), but if I had to guess from this list, I'd say two surefire nominees are the Edward Snowden film Citizenfour and the Roger Ebert doc Life Itself. Other than that, I know some very talked about selections are Keep On Keepin' On, The Last Days of Vietnam and Netflix's Virunga. Jorodowsky's Dune also seems to be doing well in early critics' awards, so perhaps that's a candidate as well.