So, this weekend's big awards show is SAG, or the Screen Actors Guild Awards (you know, the one on TBS & TNT, that starts out with random people talking to the camera saying, "My name is blah, blah, blah..and I'm an actor"). It's cheesy, but at least it's short. I think I have a seriously decent shot at getting these all right this year too (at least on the movie side), so here we go.
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
- Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
- Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
- Emma Stone, Birdman
- Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
- Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
So, yeah- Patty Arquette takes this in a walk, as she will every televised precursor award (maybe there's a tiny shot Keira can upset her at BAFTA, but I doubt it). It's all hers.
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
- Robert Duvall, The Judge
- Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
- Edward Norton, Birdman
- Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
- J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Funny how this category repeated 5 for 5 at the Golden Globes and the Oscars, but I guess no one was willing to be creative this year with the supporting men. Another lock- Simmons all the way.
Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Jennifer Aniston, Cake
- Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
- Julianne Moore, Still Alice
- Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
- Reese Witherspoon, Wild
I assume it's vet Julianne Moore, right? There's maybe a slight chance for Jennifer Aniston here, because of all the TV actors in SAG- but I think that would have been higher if she'd gotten the Oscar nod (everyone likes to be right). Predict Moore for this.
Male Actor in a Leading Role
- Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
- Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
- Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
- Michael Keaton, Birdman
- Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Ok- so this one is the one spot with an upset possibility. Keaton fits the SAG profile very well- he's a veteran actor (they love those) in a comeback role, etc. But I'd say there's at least an equal chance for Redmayne or Cumberbatch here. Frankly, the SAG Best Actor winner almost always goes on to win the Oscar, so if it's anyone other than Keaton, we'll know that this category isn't quite locked yet. But Keaton's the safe bet, so I say stick with him.
Ensemble
- Birdman
- Boyhood
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- The Imitation Game
- The Theory of Everything
This is the most interesting category at this awards show, because the SAG ensemble doesn't always match up with Best Picture- sometimes they vote for it that way (like when Slumdog Millionaire and Argo won), other times they really do go for the biggest cast or the most interactive ensemble work (Little Miss Sunshine, The Help and American Hustle all won this award). Basically, whether or not they go for the actual cast depends on how strong the love is for the Best Picture frontrunner. I'm going to say that the love for Boyhood isn't that passionate and Birdman takes this one. I don't think the kind of passion that carried Argo and Slumdog to those best ensemble wins exists for Boyhood (frankly, the acting of the kids in the movie borders on bad). Outside chances exist as well for Grand Budapest and Imitation Game (there are actually quite a few TV actors in Imitation's cast), but since Birdman is about actors it gains the upper hand here.
Another thing to note this weekend is that Saturday night is the PGA awards dinner, in which the Producers Guild gives out its top prize. The PGA winner has been the Oscar winner every single year since the Academy expanded its Picture nominees from five upward, so whatever wins that is very likely our Oscar winner as well (the PGA is roughly the same size as the Academy and uses the same kind of balloting system, which is why the winners tend to match). My money's on Boyhood there for sure- if it wins at PGA there's nothing that will stop it. The only other films with a chance to take it down are The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel, so we'll see what happens.
