Well, here we go with the annual Golden Globe predictions. The Globes pull wild cards all the time- I won't pretend to feign any kind of expertise as to what the Hollywood Foreign Press is thinking. All I do is go by what their history and the makeup of these 86 foreign journalists living in Hollywood tells us about their taste. Lately, I have to say they seem to be trying as hard as possible (much more than they used to) to predict the Oscar frontrunner rather than go with their own preferences. And that tends to make for a more boring awards show rather than the wacky, left field choices they used to be known for and that would often make for more exciting acceptance speeches. I think they ought to go back to that, I mean, that was the reason people watched and they stood out, right? But there's still the TV side, free from the pressure of Oscar predicting, and now the only place where their surprise wins and true tastes emerge.
BEST PICTURE- DRAMA
- Boyhood
- Foxcatcher
- The Imitation Game
- Selma
- The Theory of Everything
Well, here's the biggest example of how the Globes have changed. I have to choose Boyhood simply because it's the critics favorite and presumed Oscar frontrunner. Five years ago, I would never predict this movie to win the Golden Globe, and I still don't believe that the HFPA wants to choose it either. They used to often pick movies that would not go on to win the Oscar, simply because they liked them more. Movies like Babel and Atonement and Avatar (Oscar nominees but not winners). They like international casts, epic dramas, big stars, etc. But ever since 2010, when The Social Network beat The King's Speech (a movie their record tells us they clearly would have preferred), it's been quite obvious the Globes feel they must go with the critics choice in this category in order to be taken seriously- since at this point the critics are the only ones who've given out winners, so their anointed frontrunner is seemingly the one with momentum. So Boyhood it is- but I can just imagine these guys begrudgingly voting for it, wishing they could mark off their ballots for The Imitation Game (clearly the old-school, traditional Globes favorite) instead.
BEST MOTION PICTURE- MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Birdman
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Into the Woods
- Pride
- St. Vincent
Here's where the real taste of the HFPA would normally assert itself and I'd say Grand Budapest for sure, but uh-oh...Birdman's in this category and it's one of the top three Oscar movies and a critical favorite. Sigh. The poor, beleagured foreign press will feel obligated to vote Birdman for that reason, and they will.
BEST DIRECTOR
- Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Ava DuVernay, Selma
- David Fincher, Gone Girl
- Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
- Richard Linklator, Boyhood
I've already stated that I think Linklator is going to sail through the season this year, but there is a chance that the Globes go with Inarritu instead. In fact, I could even see them choosing DuVernay in a flashy move- they often don't correspond with the Oscars in this category and recent history has not changed on that stat. It's a tossup, but I'm leaning Inarritu here.
BEST ACTOR- DRAMA
- Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
- Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
- Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
- David Oyelowo, Selma
- Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
This category's a mess. Everyone seems to think Eddie Redmayne has bought and paid for all the votes already, since he's practically been camped out in LA at their houses all month, but I wonder. It's certainly possible, but to me the Globes-y choice here is Cumberbatch. He's the much bigger name in a really popular movie (box office has been huge), one they liked more than Theory of Everything, as the Oscars will too. He wasn't nominated for Sherlock, so they can't award him elsewhere. I'm just going to stick with my gut on this, but you should know most people are predicting Redmayne.
BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA
- Jennifer Aniston, Cake
- Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
- Julianne Moore, Still Alice
- Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
- Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Consensus is Julianne Moore, so I'm assuming the Globes will want to be first on the bandwagon. Although there's a slight possibility that they go with her in Comedy, where she's also nominated, and then choose Jennifer Aniston just for the hell of it (she may have bought their votes as well). I'll just play it safe.
BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL
- Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Michael Keaton, Birdman
- Bill Murray, St. Vincent
- Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
- Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
This is Keaton's in a walk. It's so sealed up that it's not worth talking up anyone else's chances.
BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSCIAL
- Amy Adams, Big Eyes
- Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
- Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
- Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
- Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie
This category is a wasteland and the person who should have won it isn't even nominated (Keira Knightley for Begin Again). Which means they will choose the inexplicable Globe favorite Emily Blunt for the win. Hope she enjoys it.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Robert Duvall, The Judge
- Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
- Edward Norton, Birdman
- Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
- J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Probably the critical and Oscar favorite J.K. Simmons. He'll start his domination here.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
- Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
- Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
- Emma Stone, Birdman
- Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
This is like the Picture Drama category- Patricia Arquette is absolutely going to win the Oscar, but she couldn't be more opposite of a typical Globes choice. They like big stars in big movies, especially with actresses- normally I would say Streep, Knightley or even Stone would all be more likely to win if the HFPA felt free to vote on their own here. But I'm not sure if they do, with Arquette being such a strong frontrunner. So I'm going to go with her, but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see someone else (like 29-time nominee Streep) take it.
SCREENPLAY
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Gone Girl
- Birdman
- Boyhood
- The Imitation Game
Here's where I think they'll deviate and go with The Grand Budapest Hotel- it's a chance to reward the movie and Wes Anderson himself and I think they'll take it.
ORIGINAL SCORE
- The Imitation Game
- The Theory of Everything
- Gone Girl
- Birdman
- Interstellar
This is likely The Imitation Game, for a chance to give the film something (they like to spread the wealth). But it could also be Theory of Everything if I'm right and they reward Cumberbatch in Actor.
ORIGINAL SONG
- "Big Eyes" (Lana Del Rey)- Big Eyes
- "Glory" (John Legend and Common)- Selma
- "Mercy Is" (Patti Smith and Lenny Kaye)- Noah
- "Opportunity" (Greg Kurstin, Sia Furler, Will Gluck)- Annie
- "Yellow Flicker Beat" (Lorde)- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay- Part 1
Another who cares category for me, since I was so upset that the best song this year ("Lost Stars" from Begin Again) was overlooked entirely, but as it is, they usually go for a name, so...maybe the Patti Smith song. On the other hand, this would be a place to give Selma a prize, so it doesn't go home emptyhanded. Yeah, that's probably it.
ANIMATED FEATURE
- Big Hero 6
- The Book of Life
- The Boxtrolls
- How to Train Your Dragon 2
- The Lego Movie
Lego Movie seems to be the frontrunner, so I guess that would be the smart prediction here. It was the biggest box office hit and all, but...I wonder if that movie doesn't play well with a certain taste (older). They didn't like Wreck-it-Ralph a couple years ago, instead opting for the classier, more traditional Brave (and for the record, the Academy did too- I don't think they're going to like Lego Movie either). I'm also not sure that Lego Movie is as strong a frontrunner as say, Frozen was last year. I think I'll deviate on this one, but it's a risk. How to Train Your Dragon 2 was huge overseas, so I'm going with that.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- Force Majeure (Sweden)
- Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem (Israel)
- Ida (Poland)
- Leviathan (Russia)
- Tangerines (Estonia)
The two Oscar frontrunners here are Force Majeure and Ida, and basically I think Ida will win as the most popular and acclaimed movie in Europe.
Well, we'll see how I do. I think I played it relatively safe- my biggest bets are in Best Actor Drama and Best Animated Feature. And possibly Director, although I don't think Inarritu is that crazy of a choice for them. It''ll be interesting to see how much they actually take to Boyhood, because it's just such a non Golden Globes kind of movie- but then so was The Social Network. Sometimes the pressure to be "right" overwhelms.
