Yay, it's time for the Screen Actors Guild predictions! I went 5 for 5 on these last year, so hopefully I can do it again. But I have a feeling we'll be in for at least one surprise, maybe in the supporting actress category?
BEST ENSEMBLE
- Trumbo
- Beasts of No Nation
- Spotlight
- The Big Short
- Straight Outta Compton
This award sometimes goes to the eventual Best Picture winner, sometimes not- the record is about 50/50 on that score. But this time, I'm thinking that it will be The Big Short, which just won the PGA last weekend. Lots of big name actors, showy performances, Steve Carell, who was on TV. Spotlight would be the other obvious contender, for its seamless ensemble filled with subtle performances. It's won the most critics prizes for the ensemble award, so that could easily happen. I think I'm just going to bet on The Big Short here though. It's an instinct.
Winner: The Big Short
Alternate: Spotlight
Dark Horse: Straight Outta Compton (this would be really cool, just out of maybe a reaction against the Oscar nominations from the much more diverse Screen Actors guild, but they almost always go with Best Picture nominees)
BEST ACTOR
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Johnny Depp, Black Mass
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
But this one's easy. Leo for the win. This is his year, he's winning everything. There's not much else to say.
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio
BEST ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Helen Mirren, The Woman in Gold
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
Brie Larson isn't as locked as Leo in this category, but she's probably pretty close. The only other person with a chance to steal is Saoirse, but it just seems to me like it's been decided that Larson's the one who should win this, after the Globe and Critics' Choice win.
Winner: Brie Larson
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
- Jacob Tremblay, Room
So, the person most likely to win the Oscar is Stallone, whom SAG didn't even nominate for this. Which makes it a free category. That's a tough one, but I would say it's between Bale, Elba and Rylance. I think I'm going to go with Christian Bale, because The Big Short looks strong in the overall race right now, and he may be the one to give Stallone a run for his money on Oscar night too.
Winner: Christian Bale
Alternate: Idris Elba (he's an enormously popular actor in both film and television who was outright snubbed by the Oscars for this acclaimed performance- I wonder if SAG may want to make it up to him here).
Dark Horse: Mark Rylance (he was the critic’s favorite and also acted in both film and TV this last year)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
There's no one with any real momentum here, but since Vikander seems to have been the critic’s darling for most of 2015 and kind of the breakthrough actress, I'm going to guess it goes to her. But this could easily be Kate Winslet as well, based on her respected veteran status. And whoever wins this category here will probably be my Oscar pick too.
Winner: Alicia Vikander
Alternate: Kate Winslet
