It's the big PGA nomination day, and this list is very important, because the Oscar Best Picture list will be this, minus one or two nominees, most likely. The trick is figuring out which ones are tossed and what the Academy might throw in on their own- no more than one, usually. This time I think it's obvious that Sicario and Ex Machina are the odd men out, but will the Academy replace them with either Carol or Room, both of which were surprisingly snubbed today? It's hard to say. I've long maintained that the Academy wasn't likely to nominate three female driven films for Best Picture (sad state of affairs but true), and it looks like I was correct in thinking Brooklyn would be the one, if any, that they'd like best. They've long held an aversion to Todd Haynes, and it looks like Carol is getting shut out by all the guilds just like Far From Heaven was in 2002, save for the actresses. As for Room, I just am not sure if that film will garner enough passion votes to get it in anywhere besides Actress and probably Screenplay. But Carol still has Weinstein behind it and maybe the heavy craft and tech potential will carry that one through. Or, maybe neither of them make it in the end.
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Ex Machina
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Sicario
- Straight Outta Compton
I do think Straight Outta Compton has a real shot to sneak in for a Best Picture nom now- it has the PGA + SAG combination, and clearly people love it. I think the membership in the Academy has changed just enough in recent years to make Compton a passion pick for enough voters that it gets in, same as Selma did last year.
