So, the Writer's Guild announced their picks today, and this is always a weird one because there are SO many Oscar contenders every year that aren't eligible for this guild. For example, Room and Brooklyn weren't eligible for adapted, and Inside Out, The Hateful Eight and Ex Machina weren't in for original. So expect to see some of these swapped out at the Oscars, most likely Trainwreck and Trumbo, in my opinion.
- Bridge of Spies
- Straight Outta Compton
- The Big Short
- The Martian
- Steve Jobs
I think Inside Out will take the place of Trainwreck, and either Brooklyn or Room, or maybe both, will make into adapted in place of at least Trumbo. The next most vulnerable script is probably Carol if both make it. Hateful Eight hasn't been showing up at the guilds, so even though Tarantino is an Academy favorite, he may not make it there this time. Ex Machina is a question mark as well- if anything takes another spot it will kick out either Sicario or Compton, probably Sicario. Compton has now hit the WGA, PGA and SAG, and the last movie to do that and not make a BP nomination was Bridesmaids in 2011. But that was a raunchy comedy they never take seriously, and this being a musical biopic gives it more weight, so I do think it's in.
AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
The ASC is a small group that is actually one of the guilds most closely aligned with Oscar, so these nominees will probably match at least 4 for 5, if not all of them.
- Bridge of Spies
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
It's nice to see Carol finally show up in the guilds today, even if the movie is still following Far From Heaven's trajectory exactly and doesn't bode all that well for AMPAS. People were expecting The Hateful Eight's stunning cinematography to show up here, and that could be the one that makes it in at the Oscars, in place of Bridge of Spies, perhaps. Although honestly, this could be the exact lineup in this category as well.