Okay, so it's Golden Globe prediction time, and I'm going to warn you right now that this is a major crapshoot year. I'm not that great at Globe predicting in the best of circumstances, but since support for so many different films is scattered, and there aren't clear frontrunners in a lot of categories, it's really hard to say what the HFPA is going to do this year, especially since they normally like trying as hard as possible to predict the Oscars. That's hard when everything is up in the air. It actually gives them more power than usual as the first televised awards, to see whether people like watching their winners onstage or not, if it can work to start some real momentum for a winner. I may have to go old-school Globes predicting here for some things, since in lieu of clear frontrunners, they may actually revert back to gasp, what they really like. Which for years was always big stars and international productions, at least on the film side. So here it goes.
BEST FILM- DRAMA
- Carol
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
This one is actually not too hard, as I think it's Spotlight, no question. It's been the critics favorite and I actually don't see which of these other films would appeal to the Hollywood Foreign Press much anyway. Mad Max and The Revenant seem too dark and/or weird for them, Room too indie and Carol too cold. So Spotlight it is.
Winner: Spotlight
Alternate: Carol
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Leo Dicaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
- Will Smith, Concussion
This one's easy too. Leo for his third. And this is probably where he kicks off his momentum to finally get that Oscar he's been wanting, but a lot of it's due to lack of clear favorite, since The Revenant isn't that popular of a movie. You know my personal pick is Fassbender, but I can't really imagine the HFPA going for anyone other than their beloved Leo here.
Winner: Leonardo Dicaprio
Alternate: Bryan Cranston
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Logic would dictate Brie Larson, since they nominated Room and not Brooklyn in Best Picture. But I still think Saoirse has a real chance for this, since normally I would have thought of Brooklyn as a movie that would really appeal to the Globes voters, many of whom are immigrants themselves. But because of that Picture nom, I can't choose anyone besides Larson. But I think it's close and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to Ronan. The Carol actresses probably cancel each other out.
Winner: Brie Larson
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan
BEST FILM- COMEDY/MUSICAL
- The Big Short
- Joy
- The Martian
- Spy
- Trainwreck
I thought The Martian had this walking away, but the controversy over it being stuffed into Comedy by just one vote makes me think they'll give it to something else. Which would probably be The Big Short, as it's coming up strong in the Oscar race.
Winner: The Big Short
Alternate: The Martian
BEST ACTOR COMEDY
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Steve Carell, The Big Short
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Al Pacino, Danny Collins
- Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
I think this is where they reward The Martian for sure, with Damon winning, since the Big Short guys will cancel each other out.
Winner: Matt Damon
Alternate: Steve Carell
BEST ACTRESS COMEDY
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Melissa McCarthy, Spy
- Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
- Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
- Lily Tomlin, Grandma
The Globes love stars, but they did reward Jennifer Lawrence two years in a row, so I think they give it to Amy Schumer this time, whose movie was well received and she's so much of a "cool" thing right now.
Winner: Amy Schumer
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence
Dark Horse: Maggie Smith (rumor has it she's actually attending the ceremony this year, and wouldn't the HFPA love to have her onstage?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
My money's on Stallone here. They'll want to see him up on that stage along with the rest of the audience and the viewers. The ones who want to be taken seriously may go with Rylance, but I think Stallone would be too much of an old-school Globes kind of action to resist. Also, none of these guys' films made it into Picture here, which makes it a free for all.
Winner: Sly Stallone
Alternate: Mark Rylance
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Jane Fonda, Youth
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo
- Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Well, everyone seems to think Alicia Vikander is the one to beat here, so I guess it's hers. I really don't have a preference for any of these actresses, so I'm just going to go with the majority, even though I really don't know what made that performance so great.
Winner: Alicia Vikander
Alternate: Jennifer Jason Leigh
BEST DIRECTOR
- Todd Haynes, Carol
- Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
This is kind of a tough one, but I think the Globes will go for Ridley Scott in this category. The Martian is well liked and he's an overdue veteran (although so's George Miller). But there's something nagging me that they could pick Inarritu here, since they actually snubbed him for Birdman last year, and it'd be kind of a makeup award. I'm torn.
Winner: Ridley Scott
Alternate: Alejandro Inarritu
Dark Horse: George Miller
BEST SCREENPLAY
- Room
- Spotlight
- The Big Short
- Steve Jobs
- The Hateful Eight
I'm torn on this one too. They may want to give Tarantino something, since they like to spread the wealth, but Hateful Eight may be more likely to win in Score. When in doubt go with the Best Picture frontrunner, but I'm saying both Spotlight and The Big Short are going to win their categories, so...it's flip a coin time.
Winner: Spotlight
Alternate: The Big Short (I really think this is totally 50/50 here)
BEST SCORE
- Carol
- The Danish Girl
- The Hateful Eight
- Steve Jobs
- The Revenant
Yeah, I think Ennio Moriccone takes it. That'll be The Hateful Eight's win.
Winner: The Hateful Eight
Alternate: Carol
BEST SONG
- "Love Me Like You Do," Fifty Shades of Grey
- "One Kind of Love," Love & Mercy
- "See You Again," Furious 7
- "Simple Song #3," Youth
- "Writings on the Wall," Spectre
I'm starting to think this category needs to become obsolete, but nothing they choose here has any bearing on anything, so I'm guessing it's Brian Wilson. Has to be, right?
Winner: "One Kind of Love," Love & Mercy
Alternate: "See You Again," Furious 7
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Anomalisa
- The Good Dinosaur
- Inside Out
- The Peanuts Movie
- Shaun the Sheep
Inside Out, no question. Easiest call of the night.
Winner: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
- The Brand New Testament
- The Club
- The Fencer
- Mustang
- Son of Saul
They don't always match Oscar in this category, but this year Son of Saul has been pretty much sweeping all the awards for Foreign Film, so I assume they'll probably go along with that.
Winner: Son of Saul
