Wow- we have a real Oscar race, people. For the first time since 2004, every major guild has chosen a different film as the year's best. PGA went with The Big Short, SAG went to Spotlight, and now the all important Directors Guild has gone with Alejandro Inarritu for The Revenant. Which of course means Inarritu is the first person in DGA history to win the award two years in a row, and likely means he will go on to win Best Director at the Oscars. Best Picture however, is another story. If Inarritu wins director, as now seems inevitable, he will join John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz as the only directors in Oscar history to win the award in back to back years. But neither of those director's films won Best Picture two years in a row, so if The Revenant were to win that, it would be unprecedented. It's not impossible, but the signs to me say we're looking at a split year. And in a split year, I still think that the PGA is the most important precursor, simply because they use the same preferential ballot that Oscar uses for Best Picture, and none of these other guilds do. So I'm going to go with The Big Short for Picture and Inarritu for Director- but there is a chance for The Revenant to catch some momentum to make this interesting in the final voting, which hasn't started yet. One of the most unpredictable Oscar years in recent memory.
- Feature: Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant
- Documentary Feature: Matthew Heineman, Cartel Land
- First Time Feature: Alex Garland, Ex Machina