Well, it's time for my annual Golden Globe predictions. I was truly dreadful at these last year, so keep that in mind. The Hollywood Foreign Press sometimes tries to predict the Oscars, other times does whatever the hell it wants, and apparently there's no way to tell which habit they'll fall back into from year to year. Hey, there's only 90 of these guys, so it's always something of a crapshoot. I'll try to keep both of their tendencies in mind as I go through the movie categories this time. Here goes nothing.
BEST PICTURE- DRAMA
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Lion
- Manchester By the Sea
- Moonlight
You know, this is a tough one. Moonlight was undoubtedly the big critics favorite this year, but will the Globes agree? I'm not so sure. There could easily be a case made for any one of these, to tell you the truth. I guess I'll stick with the critics pick, but I honestly don't know which of these movies would appeal more to these voter's tastes.
Winner: Moonlight
Alternate: Manchester By the Sea
BEST ACTOR- DRAMA
- Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
- Joel Edgerton, Loving
- Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
- Viggo Mortenson, Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington, Fences
Affleck is the critics overwhelming choice and would appear as the Oscar frontrunner, but is that enough to topple the Globes usual love of movie stars and Denzel? Well, since Fences didn't get that Best Picture nomination, I suppose Casey is the obvious choice here.
Winner: Casey Affleck
Alternate: Denzel Washington
BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA
- Amy Adams, Arrival
- Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle
- Ruth Negga, Loving
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
Interestingly, none of these actresses' films correspond to a Best Picture nomination, so there's no hint there. The Globes have long loved Amy Adams, but given Natalie Portman's tour de force performance in a showy role, I think she's got this.
Winner: Natalie Portman
Alternate: Amy Adams
Dark Horse: Isabelle Huppert
BEST PICTURE- COMEDY/MUSICAL
- 20th Century Women
- Deadpool
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- La La Land
- Sing Street
Seems like an easy win for the heavy Oscar favorite La La Land. No real suspense on this one.
Winner: La La Land
BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL
- Colin Farrell, The Lobster
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
- Jonah Hill, War Dogs
- Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
I think I'm gonna do something crazy and potentially stupid here and predict Ryan Reynolds. I know Gosling's in the BP lock, but Emma Stone will win on the actress side and will they give the movie four or more awards? They usually like to spread the wealth around. Plus, Deadpool got a Best Picture nom, so they clearly liked it, and Reynolds is campaigning like a madman (the HFPA is always the most susceptible to being wined and dined). You need an out there pick once in a while.
Winner: Ryan Reynolds
Alternate: Ryan Gosling
Dark Horse: Hugh Grant (an old Globe favorite, plus they liked that film too, enough to give it a supporting actor nomination plus the leads, and Best Picture)
BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSICAL
- Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
- Lily Collins, Rules Don't Apply
- Hailee Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma has this one in the bag. It's her chance to make the big play for Oscar voters with her acceptance speech.
Winner: Emma Stone
Alternate: Meryl Streep (can never be counted out at the Globes)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
- Dev Patel, Lion
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Ummm. I guess I will go with Ali, the critics pick for this one. Bridges may have a chance, being the veteran and all, but I think Ali will sweep the supporting races.
Winner: Mahershala Ali
Alternate: Jeff Bridges
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea
I think Davis also has the supporting awards sewn up, so no contest here.
Winner: Viola Davis
BEST DIRECTOR
- Damian Chazelle, La La Land
- Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
- Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Oy. I think probably Chazelle, but he and Jenkins have been neck and neck with critics awards, so it's a coin toss. I think the technical accomplishment of La La Land helps Chazelle though.
Winner: Damian Chazelle
Alternate: Barry Jenkins
BEST SCREENPLAY
- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- Manchester By the Sea
- Moonlight
- Nocturnal Animals
This is where I think Manchester takes a prize (other than acting). The script has been heavily praised this season. But...this could also be Hell or High Water's only shot to win something (unless they go with Bridges). Huh.
Winner: Manchester By the Sea
Alternate: Hell or High Water
BEST SCORE
- Arrival
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Lion
- Moonlight
I'm thinking La La Land, on the basis of it being a musical. Right? Lion also has a good score though, and the Globes don't usually like to give one movie too many awards. Wary on this one.
Winner: La La Land
Alternate: Lion
BEST SONG
- "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls
- "City of Stars," La La Land
- "Faith," Sing
- "Gold," Gold
- "How Far I'll Go," Moana
I'm gonna go for Justin Timberlake in this category. It's the one chart topper of the bunch and the most popular.
Winner: "Can't Stop the Feeling"
Alternate: "How Far I'll Go" (Lin-Manuel Miranda is probably also tempting for the HFPA)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- My Life as a Zucchini
- Sing
- Zootopia
Disney or Pixar always takes this, so I'm saying Zootopia. Moana has a shot too, but Zootopia clearly has the upper hand in precursor love.
Winner: Zootopia
Alternate: Moana
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
- Devine
- Elle
- Neruda
- The Salesman
- Toni Erdmann
The Globes don't always go with the inevitable Oscar winner here, but Toni Erdmann's been so acclaimed that I assume it has to be the frontrunner.
Winner: Toni Erdmann
Alternate: Neruda (they may respond well to the subject matter)
