Well, it’s time for SAG Awards predictions. The show airs on Sunday night, so here’s who I think will walk away with the guild prizes:
ACTOR
- Timothee Chalamet- Call Me By Your Name
- James Franco- The Disaster Artist
- Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out
- Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour
- Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I think Oldman has the Oscar in the bag, and will win all the precursors leading up to it, so definitely him for this one.
Winner: Gary Oldman
Alternate: Daniel Kaluuya (if they want to give Get Out something that’s not ensemble, this is the place for it)
ACTRESS
- Judi Dench- Victoria & Abdul
- Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water
- Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Margot Robbie- I, Tonya
- Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird
Well, after McDormand won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice award, she appears to be the frontrunner, but SAG is the place to confirm whether this race is competitive or not, so something different could happen here. I think anyone but Judi Dench could probably win this. Interestingly no actress has ever won two SAG awards, and if Frances were to win, she would be the first (she won for Fargo of course, two decades ago). I guess I’ll stick with her, but I could see Ronan taking it as well, especially if they think Lady Bird should win something, but not ensemble.
Winner: Frances McDormand
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan
Spoiler: Sally Hawkins
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Steve Carell- Battle of the Sexes
- Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project
- Woody Harrelson- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water
- Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Okay, I’m going for Dafoe here, despite the fact that Rockwell won the Globe and Critics Choice. He should probably be considered the frontrunner, but there’s a chance he splits votes with Harrelson from the same film, and SAG does have a history of liking their veteran actors, which Willem Dafoe definitely is. I’m gonna stick with him.
Winner: Willem Dafoe
Alternate: Sam Rockwell
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Mary J. Blige- Mudbound
- Hong Chau- Downsizing
- Holly Hunter- The Big Sick
- Allison Janney- I, Tonya
- Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
Well, I’m going to have to go with Allison Janney. I thought Laurie Metcalf would be the frontrunner in this category after winning most of the critics awards, but Janney came in and took the Globe and Critics Choice. And now that I think about it, what I think is happening is that Janney has more friends in the industry and knows a lot more people, having been in television and films for decades, while Metcalf has mostly been in theater after Roseanne ended in the 90’s. I suppose it makes sense, in terms of how people vote for these things.
Winner: Allison Janney
Alternate: Laurie Metcalf
BEST ENSEMBLE
- The Big Sick
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Mudbound
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The SAG equivalent of the Best Picture prize is important in telling you what film the actors support, especially in a close race. Literally any one of these movies could win here, it’s hard to make a guess. Sometimes SAG goes for a movie that really does have the biggest ensemble of actors with equivalent parts, like Spotlight, The Help and last year’s Hidden Figures (in which case this year it should probably be Mudbound), but then sometimes they do pick the movie that’s the bigger Oscar frontrunner. I’m not sure what movie has the edge right now, I really don’t. I guess I could see Three Billboards taking it? Then again, I could also see Get Out winning, or like I said before, Mudbound. Aaack. I’m completely torn on this one.
Winner: Get Out (gonna go for broke)
Alternate: Three Billboards
Spoiler: Mudbound (ironically, this one seems the most SAG like to me, and the only reason I’m not going with it is because the movie doesn’t seem to be a bigger Oscar contender- I’ll be very annoyed with myself if it pulls it off anyway)
