‘A Star is Born’ may be the frontrunner at SAG
The SAG awards are the first major industry guild to weigh in, and A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, followed by BlacKkKlansman with three. SAG usually tells us who most of the acting Oscar nominees will be, minus maybe one or two per category. The ensemble prize used to be an important precursor for Best Picture, but last year was the first year in two decades the eventual Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water, wasn’t even nominated for it. So that might not be as big a deal anymore. I’m surprised The Favourite, which got three acting nods, didn’t get in for ensemble, and that some other movies with a couple of solo acting nods didn’t either, like Vice and especially Green Book. Ethan Hawke being snubbed here and by the Globes for Best Actor in First Reformed means he might not get that Oscar nod after all, though it’s still possible.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star is Born
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalemet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams - Vice
Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie - Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weiss - The Favourite
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Antman and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
There’s at least one slot open in the Best Actress race, although it looks like Emily Blunt has a decent chance to take it for Mary Poppins (but that’s not a lock- the movie’s reviews aren’t that great and there are other contenders there that could sneak in). I think there’s two slots open for Supporting Actress, because Emily Blunt is not supporting in A Quiet Place (she’ll be replaced by Regina King, I’m sure- the total snub of If Beale Street Could Talk may mean screeners weren’t sent in time, which is a notorious issue with this guild), and I don’t think Margot Robbie will get in either. One more note: I’m honestly starting to think Bohemian Rhapsody might get nominated for Best Picture despite the terrible reviews. Rami Malek has been nominated everywhere and the movie now has a Golden Globe nom for Best Picture Drama (which has a lot more heft with Oscar than the Musical/Comedy category) and now SAG ensemble. People love this movie, it’s a huge hit, and every once in a while, a really popular bad movie gets into Best Picture (like The Blind Side). If it gets into the PGA noms I think it’s happening.
Can Emily Blunt get her first Oscar nod for a role that won Julie Andrews hers?
