Okay guys, time for SAG predictions! The Screen Actors Guild Awards happening Sunday night are a huge barometer for the acting winners at the Oscars, with its ensemble prize an occasional Best Picture bellwether in a split guild year (if this is one of those- we don’t know yet). With the nominations now in, there are a couple of competitive races where SAG could be the decisive precursor (BAFTA can sometimes signal an upset winner if it differs). Let’s get to it.
ENSEMBLE IN A FILM
Fingers crossed for the Spike Lee joint
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star is Born
Well, I once thought that A Star is Born would be a big frontrunner, but the movie has stalled out in winning anything besides Song, and that’s likely where it’ll end up on Oscar night, with Bradley Cooper having been overlooked in director. I think there’s no chance for it to win here. My gut says this could be any of the B-titles: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman or Bohemian Rhapsody. And it’s really just a crapshoot, all of them are pretty loved in the industry, and there’s lots of actors in each ensemble cast. I’m gonna go with BlacKkKlansman, because I still want to think that it has an outside shot to win Best Picture, and if had the SAG win under its belt, that would be a huge indicator of its support going into the Oscars. And it does have strong support, because it got nominated for ensemble here, plus two individual acting nods. But it could very easily be either of the other two.
Winner: BlacKkKlansman
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody
Dark Horse: Black Panther
LEAD ACTOR
Christian Bale’s physical transformation as Cheney likely gives him the upper hand
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
This one’s really hard too. Malek and Bale both won Globes, and then Bale won the Critics Choice award. They’re both physically transformative performances in biopics (which actors like), and both movies are loved by the industry overall. I think it’s between them and whoever takes this will win on Oscar night, but I honestly have no idea which one to lean towards.
Winner: Christian Bale (a former winner in supporting, but maybe because he’s more respected with a longer career, and sometimes that’s important to SAG)
Alternate: Rami Malek
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper (he may have a shot, especially if people want give him something for his movie after being snubbed in directing by the Oscars, but the voting for this was probably too late for the sympathy factor to kick in)
LEAD ACTRESS
After seven Oscar nominations and no win to her name, will the SAG be Glenn Close’s first step on her way to finally take the statue?
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Oy. Another coin toss. Glenn Close and Olivia Colman both won Globes and Critics Choice awards (along with Gaga in the latter), but The Favourite is obviously better loved as a whole (10 Oscar nominations) and Colman is highly likely to win the BAFTA. On the other hand, Glenn Close is now the most-nominated living actor to have never won an Oscar. That’s a fearsome position I didn’t know she’d reached. At this point I would think there’d be a lot of pressure to reward her for her decades long career, don’t you? And SAG does like veterans. I’m going with Glenn.
Winner: Glenn Close
Alternate: Olivia Colman
Dark Horse: Lady Gaga
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ali will likely get his second SAG award in as many years
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
This one is much easier. Ali seems like the definite favorite, having won the Globe and Critics Choice award, and with how loved Green Book seems to be in the industry. The only thing is SAG has never repeated in this category, and he did win this for Moonlight just two years ago. So they could choose to go with another long unrecognized, veteran character actor like Sam Elliott (or Richard E. Grant for that matter). But I think it’s probably Ali’s. He’ll just be the first to repeat.
Winner: Mahershala Ali
Alternate: Sam Elliott
Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Without Regina King in the mix, I think the SAG finally goes to Amy Adams
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
So the weird thing with this category is that the presumed frontrunner, Regina King (who won the Globe and Critics Choice award for If Beale Street Could Talk), did not get nominated here or at BAFTA. It could be some weird fluke, or it could signal that it’ll be tough for her to take the Oscar, especially if one alternative choice swoops in for both. I think Amy Adams is the likely beneficiary of King’s absence at this show but if Adams were to win here and then someone else takes the BAFTA (like hometown girl Rachel Weisz for example), that leaves a path for King to take the Oscar anyway. However, if Amy Adams wins here AND at BAFTA, and the Academy loves Vice that much (8 Oscar nominations to Beale Street’s 3, and Adams herself is on her sixth and overdue) that could mean Adams comes in and goes all the way, finally winning after so many nominations over the last decade.
Winner: Amy Adams
Alternate: Rachel Weisz
Dark Horse: Emily Blunt (she was nominated twice by SAG this year and yet snubbed completely at the Oscars again- maybe she has a chance if there’s some sympathy for her after her big hits were ignored by the Academy)
