Golden Globe Predictions for Sunday

This weekend is the Golden Globes and it’s time to do predictions! These are fun, because they tend to be all over the place and the Globe winner for Best Picture is not necessarily the Oscar winner (there’s about a 50/50 ratio over the years). The Hollywood Foreign Press sometimes like big stars and more Euro-centric films, but occasionally they go indie too. I’ve noticed they tend to flip back and forth in recent years, depending on what they’re trying to prove, although since it’s a group of just 100 foreign journalists, they are always susceptible to the nominees and publicists who woo them the most. Let’s see how well (or not) I can read these guys this year.

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

• BlacKkKlansman

• Black Panther

• Bohemian Rhapsody

• If Beale Street Could Talk

• A Star is Born

I think this is between Black Panther and A Star is Born, although BlacKkKlansman has a chance as well. And this is really tough actually- I think A Star is Born is more of a Globes-y pick and it has a lot more nominations, like directing and acting, but with Black Panther being such a phenomenon this year, can it be denied? 

Winner: A Star is Born

Alternate: Black Panther

Dark Horse: BlacKkKlansman

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

• Crazy Rich Asians

• The Favourite

• Green Book

• Mary Poppins Returns

• Vice

This one’s even harder for me. The HFPA obviously loved Vice, but the nominations were in before the movie’s reviews came out, which were quite mixed. Will that make the voters wary of picking it? The Favourite has been quite popular, especially with overseas voters, but it missed a director nomination here, so maybe it’s not as strong. Green Book has all the right nominations, including director and screenplay. Could that win? They still love musicals traditionally, so could it even be Mary Poppins Returns? I honestly don’t know. I’ll have to go with the one that has the most nominations.

Winner: Vice

Alternate: Green Book

Dark Horse: The Favourite


BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA

• Glenn Close, The Wife

• Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

• Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• Rosamund Pike, A Private War

I think this is easily Lady Gaga, right? Such a Globes style pick and they loved the movie. 

Winner: Lady Gaga

Alternate: Glenn Close

BEST ACTOR- DRAMA

• Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

• Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

• John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

This one has to be between Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek. I’m honestly not sure, because I think A Star is Born will win in other places, so will it win everywhere? Malek’s movie was a huge hit and it got a Best Picture nomination here too. I think this is a coin toss.

Winner: Bradley Cooper

Alternate: Rami Malek

BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

• Olivia Colman, The Favourite

• Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

• Charlize Theron, Tully

• Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

This is either Olivia Colman or Emily Blunt, and I’m going with Colman, given the The Favourite’s critical acclaim. But Blunt’s not a wild card choice, she’s pretty loved by the Globes, and musicals have historically been popular with them.

Winner: Olivia Colman

Alternate: Emily Blunt

BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Christian Bale, Vice

• Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

• Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

• John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

It’s definitely Mortensen or Bale, and given the level of Christian Bale’s physical transformation, I think that gives him the edge. 

Winner: Christian Bale

Alternate: Viggo Mortenson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Vice

• Claire Foy, First Man

• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

• Emma Stone, The Favourite

• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

I think this is Amy Adams or Regina King, but the Globes love Amy Adams, so I think she’ll probably win. It could also be one of the two from The Favourite, but there being two of them likely cancels each other out.

Winner: Amy Adams

Alternate: Regina King

Dark Horse: Rachel Weisz


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book

• Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• Sam Rockwell, Vice

I’m thinking Mahershala Ali here, for Green Book, but Adam Driver or Richard E. Grant has a chance too. I also wonder what else BlacKkKlansman could win, if they want to spread the wealth at all.

Winner: Mahershala Ali

Alternate: Adam Driver

Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant

BEST DIRECTOR

• Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

• Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

• Peter Farrelly, Green Book

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

• Adam McKay, Vice

So I assume that Cuaron is going to sweep the directing awards this whole season, and it’ll start here. Roma isn’t up for Picture because the Globes inexplicably ban movies in foreign languages from being submitted in the Best Picture categories (I know- insane, right?). But they’ll make up for that by giving him Best Director. I suppose Spike Lee does have a chance here, and possibly Bradley Cooper, if they love that movie enough (and he doesn’t win Best Actor).

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Alternate: Bradley Cooper

Dark Horse: Spike Lee

BEST SCREENPLAY

• Roma

• The Favourite

• If Beale Street Could Talk

• Vice

• Green Book

This is where I think Vice will win, but The Favourite could easily take this too.

Winner: Vice

Alternate: The Favourite

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Incredibles 2

• Isle of Dogs

• Mirai

• Ralph Breaks the Internet

• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I used to think Incredibles 2 was going to walk away with the animated awards, but the amazing success of Into the Spider-Verse has me thinking otherwise. People LOVE that movie (I haven’t seen it yet). I think I’m going to say that the Globes with go with it too, but it’s not a sure thing. They may even like Isle of Dogs here.

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Incredibles 2

Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• A Quiet Place

• Isle of Dogs

• Black Panther

• First Man

• Mary Poppins Returns

On quality alone, this really needs to go to First Man. The fact that the Globes nominated it here, despite ignoring the movie entirely everywhere else, makes me think they can at least recognize the greatness of that score, but will it win? Mary Poppins might have the edge for this, or even Isle of Dogs. Also, Black Panther probably has to win something (if it doesn’t get Best Picture). Now that I think about it, that probably gives it a leg up in this category, which is the only other place it’s nominated (besides song, but I think “Shallow” has that one walking in).

Winner: Black Panther

Alternate: Mary Poppins Returns

Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum

• Girl

• Never Look Away

• Roma

• Shoplifters

Now this one’s Roma, hands down. Anything else would be an upset.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “All the Stars,” Black Panther

• “Revelation,” Boy Erased

• Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’

• “Shallow,” A Star is Born

• “Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War

Most likely A Star is Born. Easy call, I think. But there is a chance for Kendrick Lamar too.

Winner: “Shallow”

Alternate: “All the Stars”