2019 Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Sound, Shorts and Visual Effects

The first part of my official Oscar predictions for 2019 are as usual, the sound, effects and short awards. Let’s get straight into it, shall we?

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tough category, but the actual visual effects were most memorable in this Spielberg movie

Tough category, but the actual visual effects were most memorable in this Spielberg movie

  • Avengers: Infinity War

  • Christopher Robin

  • First Man

  • Ready Player One

  • Solo: A Star Wars Story

Unfortunately, the precursor awards did not help us out much on this one. The VES Society is notoriously unreliable here and they went for Avengers, while BAFTA chose Black Panther, which wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. So I’m kind of at a loss. My gut tells me it could be Avengers, First Man or Ready Player One- the latter is probably the most deserving based on the effects themselves, but with the whole Academy voting, will it just be the most widely seen movie? That would default to Avengers, I assume. But Marvel movies don’t tend to win this category, so I’m honestly not sure. I should probably go with my instinct and base it on the effects alone.

Winner: Ready Player One

Alternate: Avengers: Infinity War

Dark Horse: First Man


SOUND MIXING

Musicals tend to win sound

Musicals tend to win sound

  • Black Panther

  • Bohemian Rhapsody

  • First Man

  • Roma

  • A Star is Born

Every year I get more and more frustrated that they still haven’t combined the two sound categories into one award and just called it Best Sound. I promise you the majority of the voters have no idea what the difference is between mixing and editing, and even though I’ve looked it up myself, I constantly forget it. So there’s only the hint that the winner of the sound awards is usually the same movie, and usually either the action or musical nominee of the bunch. In this case, I think that points to Bohemian Rhapsody (it won BAFTA and CAS, the sound guild). So I’m choosing it for both.

Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternate: A Star is Born


SOUND EDITING

There’s a chance for  A Quiet Place  on this one, but I’m sticking with the musical

There’s a chance for A Quiet Place on this one, but I’m sticking with the musical

  • Black Panther

  • Bohemian Rhapsody

  • First Man

  • A Quiet Place

  • Roma

Sticking with my usual prediction of one movie for both of these, I have to go with Bohemian Rhapsody. I do feel like there’s a chance for A Quiet Place here (it won one of the top two prizes for this at the guild awards for sound editing- the other was Bohemian), but I’m just sticking to my rule.

Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternate: A Quiet Place


ANIMATED SHORT

Pixar’s  Bao  seems to be the frontrunner

Pixar’s Bao seems to be the frontrunner

  • Animal Behaviour

  • Bao

  • Late Afternoon 

  • One Small Step

  • Weekends

So I did my homework and actually watched all of these (they’re available on youtube), and I really think One Small Step is the most obvious, heart tugging, Disney-like short of the bunch, even though it’s not actually Disney. But most people seem to think the quirky Pixar one, Bao, is the frontrunner. Pixar almost never wins this category though, so I’m not sure where that’s coming from. I don’t think Bao is so much better than their past shorts that they’ve lost with. The people who vote on these tend to be the animators who’ve actually seen them all…then again Bao is likely to be the most widely seen of the bunch, so it could get more votes from non-animators. Pixar is the safe bet.

Winner: Bao

Alternate: One Small Step

Dark Horse: Weekends (won the Annie award, but not against this competition)


LIVE ACTION SHORT

This is a total wild guess on my part

This is a total wild guess on my part

  • Detainment

  • Fauve

  • Marguerite

  • Mother

  • Skin

I have not seen any of these, so I’m gonna have to guess. All I know is that Detainment is being protested by the real life person whose child it was based on, so that one’s out. All of these are apparently about children in jeopardy of some sort, so that’s not a clue either. I’m going with Marguerite, because I heard that’s it’s the only one with a semi-happy ending, which makes it stand out from the bunch.

Winner: Marguerite

Alternate: Fauve


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Currently playing on Netflix if you want to check it out

Currently playing on Netflix if you want to check it out

  • Black Sheep

  • End Game

  • Lifeboat

  • A Night at the Garden

  • Period. End of Sentence.

I watched A Night at the Garden on youtube and it’s creepy yet very effective. But it’s the shortest one (seven minutes) and made up of archival footage entirely, so I don’t know if it will win. However, it does leave a big impact in its short running time, a reminder of Fascist sentiment in America in 1939, and Fox News wouldn’t let an ad run for it on their network, which kinda says it all. Could it pull it off? Still not sure. Period. End of Sentence. is currently on Netflix and has a strong pro-feminist message, so that could be the winner too.

Winner: Period. End of Sentence.

Alternate: A Night at the Garden

Dark Horse: Black Sheep