2019 Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Foreign, Animated, Documentary Films, plus Makeup, Editing & Cinematography

Today it’s the documentary, foreign and animated film categories, along with editing, cinematography and makeup.

DOCUMENTARY

Could be  RBG , but I think  Free Solo  has the edge

Could be RBG, but I think Free Solo has the edge

  • Free Solo

  • Hale County This Morning, This Evening

  • Minding the Gap

  • Of Fathers and Sons

  • RBG

I think this award will go to Free Solo, the thrilling and very accessible feat of human daring captured on film. Ever since the Mr. Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor was snubbed for a nomination, I thought RBG was the sentimental favorite, but now I’m not so sure. It used to be that only members of the documentary branch could vote for this category, but with the whole Academy now voting, it always goes to the most accessible and popular of the nominees. That would support RBG winning, but also Free Solo, and since Free Solo just won the BAFTA award (and some other guild awards in documentary), I’m going with that.

Winner: Free Solo

Alternate: RBG

Dark Horse: Minding the Gap (it probably doesn’t have a chance, but I love this movie and it was my favorite of the nominees)


FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

This one should be a lock for the Best Picture nominee

This one should be a lock for the Best Picture nominee

  • Capernaum (Lebanon)

  • Cold War (Poland)

  • Never Look Away (Germany)

  • Roma (Mexico)

  • Shoplifters (Japan)

Well, it has to be Roma, right? The Best Picture nominee that has 10 nominations overall, why wouldn’t it win here? Well, the counterargument is that they might give this award to a movie that won’t possibly be winning Best Picture as well, like Cold War, which also got nominated in Director and Cinematography (or Shoplifters, the actual best nominee here next to Roma). I suppose that’s a possibility but it’s hard for me to see how people don’t check off the most revered foreign film of the year, just because it might also win Best Picture. I think it wins.

Winner: Roma

Alternate: Cold War


ANIMATED FILM

Spider-Man  has swept the season- will the Academy follow suit?

Spider-Man has swept the season- will the Academy follow suit?

  • Incredibles 2

  • Isle of Dogs

  • Mirai

  • Ralph Breaks the Internet

  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I have to go with Spider-Man. It won the Golden Globe, BFCA, Annie and BAFTA awards. There’s always a chance the Academy screws this up and goes with the Disney/Pixar hit like they always do (it’s been many years since they haven’t, and when they don’t it’s usually because the Disney movie either isn’t nominated or got weak reviews- Incredibles 2 did not). But I think Spider-Verse should have this.

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Incredibles 2


CINEMATOGRAPHY

The sweeping cinematography of  Roma  would make Alfonso Cuaron the first director to win this award

The sweeping cinematography of Roma would make Alfonso Cuaron the first director to win this award

  • Cold War

  • The Favourite

  • Never Look Away

  • Roma

  • A Star is Born

Roma has this one, I think. Cold War won the guild (ASC), so that’s possible, but Roma won the BAFTA, which is like the Academy in that a wider pool of voters was choosing, not just cinematographers.

Winner: Roma

Alternate: Cold War


EDITING

I’m guessing that the recreation of the Live Aid concert will win this category for  Bohemian

I’m guessing that the recreation of the Live Aid concert will win this category for Bohemian

  • BlacKkKlansman

  • Bohemian Rhapsody

  • The Favourite

  • Green Book

  • Vice

Ehhh. This one’s tough actually. Bohemian Rhapsody took the guild award (the ACE Eddie) and that’s usually a pretty big deal. But Vice took the BAFTA, which again, is a wider pool of voters like AMPAS will be, and not just editors. I think a big group of people look at a movie and tend to think that most editing means best editing…then again, the editing in that Live Aid concert recreation at the end of Bohemian Rhapsody is the most memorable part of the movie, which people undoubtedly love. I’m iffy on predicting that movie to win 4 Oscars, but I guess it’s possible.

Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternate: Vice


MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

The makeup in  Vice  is likely to prevail

The makeup in Vice is likely to prevail

  • Border

  • Mary, Queen of Scots

  • Vice

First of all, I don’t understand why this is the only category with three nominees- other movies have plenty of makeup every year, and yet for some reason this always happens at the Oscars. But I’m pretty sure Vice will win- old age makeup and fat suits are always big with Academy voters. Plus more of them have probably seen Vice over the other two (shout out to the nomination for Border though- that troll makeup on those people looked real).

Winner: Vice

Alternate: Mary, Queen of Scots