Today it’s the documentary, foreign and animated film categories, along with editing, cinematography and makeup.
DOCUMENTARY
Could be RBG, but I think Free Solo has the edge
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
I think this award will go to Free Solo, the thrilling and very accessible feat of human daring captured on film. Ever since the Mr. Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor was snubbed for a nomination, I thought RBG was the sentimental favorite, but now I’m not so sure. It used to be that only members of the documentary branch could vote for this category, but with the whole Academy now voting, it always goes to the most accessible and popular of the nominees. That would support RBG winning, but also Free Solo, and since Free Solo just won the BAFTA award (and some other guild awards in documentary), I’m going with that.
Winner: Free Solo
Alternate: RBG
Dark Horse: Minding the Gap (it probably doesn’t have a chance, but I love this movie and it was my favorite of the nominees)
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
This one should be a lock for the Best Picture nominee
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Well, it has to be Roma, right? The Best Picture nominee that has 10 nominations overall, why wouldn’t it win here? Well, the counterargument is that they might give this award to a movie that won’t possibly be winning Best Picture as well, like Cold War, which also got nominated in Director and Cinematography (or Shoplifters, the actual best nominee here next to Roma). I suppose that’s a possibility but it’s hard for me to see how people don’t check off the most revered foreign film of the year, just because it might also win Best Picture. I think it wins.
Winner: Roma
Alternate: Cold War
ANIMATED FILM
Spider-Man has swept the season- will the Academy follow suit?
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I have to go with Spider-Man. It won the Golden Globe, BFCA, Annie and BAFTA awards. There’s always a chance the Academy screws this up and goes with the Disney/Pixar hit like they always do (it’s been many years since they haven’t, and when they don’t it’s usually because the Disney movie either isn’t nominated or got weak reviews- Incredibles 2 did not). But I think Spider-Verse should have this.
Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Incredibles 2
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The sweeping cinematography of Roma would make Alfonso Cuaron the first director to win this award
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born
Roma has this one, I think. Cold War won the guild (ASC), so that’s possible, but Roma won the BAFTA, which is like the Academy in that a wider pool of voters was choosing, not just cinematographers.
Winner: Roma
Alternate: Cold War
EDITING
I’m guessing that the recreation of the Live Aid concert will win this category for Bohemian
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Ehhh. This one’s tough actually. Bohemian Rhapsody took the guild award (the ACE Eddie) and that’s usually a pretty big deal. But Vice took the BAFTA, which again, is a wider pool of voters like AMPAS will be, and not just editors. I think a big group of people look at a movie and tend to think that most editing means best editing…then again, the editing in that Live Aid concert recreation at the end of Bohemian Rhapsody is the most memorable part of the movie, which people undoubtedly love. I’m iffy on predicting that movie to win 4 Oscars, but I guess it’s possible.
Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Vice
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The makeup in Vice is likely to prevail
Border
Mary, Queen of Scots
Vice
First of all, I don’t understand why this is the only category with three nominees- other movies have plenty of makeup every year, and yet for some reason this always happens at the Oscars. But I’m pretty sure Vice will win- old age makeup and fat suits are always big with Academy voters. Plus more of them have probably seen Vice over the other two (shout out to the nomination for Border though- that troll makeup on those people looked real).
Winner: Vice
Alternate: Mary, Queen of Scots
