Today we’re doing the screenplays, costumes, production design and music categories.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite’s screenplay is definitely the most original
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Oh boy, the writing awards are a crapshoot this year. The precursors split all over the place. Green Book won the Golden Globe, First Reformed won the Critics Choice, The Favourite won at BAFTA and a non-nominee, Eighth Grade, won the WGA. Of those, the BAFTA and WGA are the actual industry voters, so they’re more important, but what does that tell us? Well, I think it says that Green Book is not a sure thing, or it would have beaten a non-nominee at WGA. But honestly, any one of these could probably win. I think The Favourite might have the edge, as its screenplay is considered very witty and literate, so I’m going with that.
Winner: The Favourite
Alternate: Green Book
Dark Horse: First Reformed (this could happen- Paul Schrader, the writer of Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, is revered and has never won, or even been nominated for an Oscar, but this is the only nomination the movie got, so it’s a long shot against four Best Picture nominees)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Rooting for Spike Lee to get his first Oscar as co-writer of BlacKkKlansman
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Again, a shot in the dark. The Critics Choice went to Beale Street, the Scripter prize went to the non-nominated Leave No Trace, BAFTA went to BlacKkKlansman and WGA went to Can You Ever Forgive Me?… so what should we pick? I’m sticking with BlacKkKlansman- I’m assuming that voters know that Spike Lee has never won an Oscar and this is his big chance. It also has more top nominations than those other films (except A Star is Born, but that’s won nothing and is a third remake).
Winner: BlacKkKlansman
Alternate: Can You Ever Forgive Me? (gotta go with the WGA winner I guess)
Dark Horse: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (hey, it’s the Coen Brothers- always possible)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wakanda’s sets were pretty impressive, don’t you think?
Back Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Costumes and production design are kind of killing me, because I really think it’s between Black Panther and The Favourite, and it’s like a 50/50 shot for either of them. BAFTA really liked The Favourite, which won both, and that’s the period piece look that’s traditionally favored in these categories throughout all of Oscar history, really. But then again, Mad Max did win these techs for its sci-fi inspired stuff, so are the Oscars changing a little? And the Academy liked Black Panther a lot more than BAFTA did (only one nomination there) and they’re going to give it something. But is it this one or costumes? Or both? Or am I wrong and it’s The Favourite for both? Agggh. The guilds are no help, because they both won there in separate categories (fantasy and period piece). Gonna have to guess.
Winner: Black Panther
Alternate: The Favourite
COSTUME DESIGN
Betting on the colorful costumes of Black Panther to prevail over the more traditional Favourite garb
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
This is the exact same situation as Production Design. BAFTA went for The Favourite, and the Costume guild split between that and Black Panther in separate genre categories. I’m going to go with Panther for both of these on a gut feeling.
Winner: Black Panther
Alternate: The Favourite
ORGINAL SCORE
This category is totally up in the air, so I’m betting on Panther once more
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
I’m still angry that the year’s best score, First Man, was horrifyingly snubbed here. How could they? What were they thinking? Without that score nominated, the second best is the music from If Beale Street Could Talk, but I really do wonder how many voters are actually watching that movie. It only got three nominations. The BAFTA winner does not help at all, since that went to A Star is Born. I don’t know, I’m honestly thinking Black Panther for this. The movie could win several techs, and this may be one of them.
Winner: Black Panther
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk
Dark Horse: BlacKkKlansman (the jazzy 70’s inspired score was memorable in this one)
ORIGINAL SONG
Likely to be A Star is Born’s only award of the night
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
So this has to be Shallow. It won a couple Grammys, it was a massive hit, it’s Lady Gaga. It’s also A Star is Born’s only real shot at winning anything, which is a far cry from when it was labeled an early frontrunner back in the fall. It’s got this.
Winner: “Shallow”
Alternate: “All the Stars”
