SAG predictions time! I don’t know if there’s likely to be any surprises tomorrow night. There’s definitely four frontrunners, so the only wild card is the ensemble award. The winner of that doesn’t necessarily win Best Picture at the Oscars, unless the same movie happens to win the PGA as well (which is happening tonight, by the way). So by the end of this weekend, we’ll know for sure if the frontrunners are cemented, because there’s overlap between the screen actors guild and the Academy.
BEST ENSEMBLE
Bombshell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Since I’m playing it safe in the individual categories, I’m going to go out on a big limb for this one and say Parasite is going to win it. I don’t know why, I just have a feeling it could happen. Once Upon a Time is the likely alternative (and if that were to win here and also at PGA, then that’s the Oscar ballgame).
Winner: Parasite
Alternate: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Dark Horse: The Irishman
LEAD ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
I don’t see anyone taking it away from Phoenix at this point. It’s his to lose, especially with how beloved the movie seems to be. And SAG tends to like awarding overdue veterans anyway, so I think he’ll take this.
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix
Alternate: Adam Driver
Dark Horse: Taron Egerton (unlikely, especially now that he didn’t get the Oscar nod, but it’s possible)
LEAD ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nygong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Same situation as Best Actor- I don’t see any real alternative to Renee Zellweger, and she also fits the seasoned veteran SAG likes to award.
Winner: Renee Zellweger
Alternate: Scarlett Johansson
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
I feel like Im going to basically say the same thing for every single one of these winners. Brad’s a longtime veteran, he’s never won, he’s overdue. Same old story.
Winner: Brad Pitt
Alternate: Joe Pesci
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
This is the only category where I could potentially see a surprise happening. People are mad that Jennifer Lopez was snubbed for the Oscar nom and sometimes SAG has gone out of its way in recent years to award Oscar snubees, like Idris Elba and Emily Blunt. I could actually see JLo winning this. The problem is Laura Dern still fits that SAG sweet spot of longtime veteran who’s never won, so it’s a risk, but…I’m gonna go for it. Might as well take a chance.
Winner: Jennifer Lopez
Alternate: Laura Dern
Dark Horse: Scarlett Johansson (she does have two nominations here, same as for the Oscars- she could win one of them)
