The visual effects guild had its say tonight, giving The Lion King its top award. Usually this one goes to a Best Picture nominee at the Oscars, so maybe that favors The Irishman, but who knows? The Lion King was really an animated movie (frankly the VES should have considered it one) and all the movie is is its effects, so I suppose that could win out.
2020 VES WINNERS
Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature: The Lion King
Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature: The Irishman
Outstanding Visual Effects in an Animated Feature: Missing Link