Outstanding Comedy Series:
- 30 Rock
- Girls
- Louie
- Modern Family
- The Big Bang Theory
- Veep
Well, this category is a bit difficult to analyze, because Modern Family has won three years in a row, has gone down slightly this year in the number of nominations, and yet...there's no clear alternative. Louie is a possibility, due to the increase in nominations and obvious love for Louis C.K. himself within the Academy (nine individual nods for him this year), but the show is extremely low rated and not very buzzed about at the moment, having been off the air for a year. The Big Bang Theory might seem the obvious choice due to its incredible popularity (it averages 20 million viewers now, which are numbers not seen for a sitcom since back in the Friends days), but the show did not receive an increase in key nominations this year, particularly in the writing and directing categories (and no actors besides Jim Parsons and Mayim Bialik). So there's not a lot of love for that show with the voters either.
30 Rock is a possibility, being a former three time champ, and the show did experience something of a resurgence in nominations this year, with all the key nods in writing, directing and acting. Yet it hasn't won a single Emmy since its third season, and the final one didn't exactly come with a resurgence in buzz or ratings at all. It's hard to tell how deep the love is for that show, given that they haven't gone back to it in so long, but rewarding it for the last season provides an alternative to Modern Family fatigue (if there is any, which is unknown). As for Veep and Girls- Girls is a deeply polarizing show (ugh- you know how I feel about it) and it's really not the kind of thing that the conservative, stuffy TV Academy voters would go for, outside of it having a major cultural impact, like Sex & the City (which it hasn't yet). And Veep actually is the kind of show they would like, classy and political, yet witty, but it only received 4 nominations, and none in writing or directing, which again, is key to winning Series.
So every show seems to have something working against it, with no obvious steamroller to take down the reigning champ. In that case, I'm going to have to go with Modern Family by default, for a fourth straight win. My guess is 30 Rock or Louie would be the ones with the next best chance, but voters may split up all over the place, and in that scenario, I think it benefits Modern Family as well. So there you have it- it may be a boring choice, but I think that's how it's going to play out. I'll be back next week with predictions for the Drama categories!
Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: 30 Rock (I think it ought to take it for the final year)
Dark Horse: Louie
