Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
- Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire)
- Jonathan Banks (Breaking Bad)
- Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
- Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
- Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
- Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
Now, unlike the comedy categories, drama is stacked with some seriously heavy competition (aside from Jim Carter, who doesn't stand a chance). I could see any one of the other 5 winning here, under the right circumstances, so in this scenario I'm just gonna have to go with my gut. Peter Dinklage has won before, but this time he has a really good episode, more screen time than usual (and he has a drunk scene in it, which the Emmys always love). Mandy Patinkin also has a very good episode, and shows some heavy emotion, but his presence is fairly limited throughout the hour. Jonathan Banks gave a very stolid, subdued performance all last season on Breaking Bad, but I don't think his (spoiler alert) death scene in this episode is enough to win it for him (unless his veteran actor status helps him out, but that didn't help Giancarlo Esposito last year). Bobby Cannavale was very big and over the top in his role on Boardwalk, and the Emmys already like this guy, having rewarded him in the past, so he's a real possibility. Can Aaron Paul come back and win a third in a row? Actually, he could. That's pretty rare, but he definitely submitted a good episode, where he gets to be both funny and emotional, and we know the voters already love Jesse and Paul. This is a tough one- I'm not even sure who I think should win here.
Will Win: Aaron Paul (this is very risky, but I'm going to go for it and say he gets a third)
Should Win: Mandy Patinkin (not for his episode, but for his part on Homeland as a whole, he's the rock of that show)
Dark Horse: Peter Dinklage (there's something about his episode and knowing they also love his character that makes me think he could take it again with this one)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:
- Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
- Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
- Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
- Morena Baccarin (Homeland)
- Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
- Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Well, for me, if they're actually watching the episodes there's no contest here. Anna Gunn takes it in a walk. It's by far and away her best episode from last season (it's the one where she tells Walt she's waiting for his cancer to come back) and it really is better than all of these other ones. But unfortunately you can never count out Maggie Smith, who's won two already for Downton. She does nothing different in her episode, but they just love Maggie Smith and seem to want to give it to her every year. Still, given the extra attention on Breaking Bad right now, I'm going to gamble and say that Anna Gunn will take it anyway. As for the rest of them, Hendricks and Baranski don't get much to do in theirs, and Morena Baccarin has a decent one, but there is very little love for that character on Homeland. Emilia Clarke would probably be in third place, but the problem with her is that her scene is at the very end of that GoT episode, and it's only a few minutes long. It is a big, powerful scene (where she unleashes the dragons on those slavemasters), but I still don't think that it's enough for the win in this category, especially if voters have to sit through the rest of the hour first (which they do).
Will Win: Anna Gunn
Should Win: Anna Gunn (fingers crossed)
Dark Horse: Maggie Smith
