Starting today I'm going to take my life into my hands with some predictions for the annual Emmy ceremony next Monday. My record on this particular show was pretty dreadful last year, but in my defense, last year was a bizarre out of nowhere year where absolutely every winner was in total shock as well as the audience. Hopefully this time will be a little more predictable, at least for the sake of my credibility. But the Emmys are still a bit of a crapshoot, because the winners are voted on by individual viewing panels who choose after watching a submitted episode from each nominee. You never know what could happen when someone on a bad show sends in their one great episode of the season. So I'll start today with the acting winners in the TV Movie or Miniseries categories, and move through the other major nominations throughout the week.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
• Martin Freeman, Fargo
• Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
• Idris Elba, Luther
• Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
• Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
So, my gut tells me this is between Billy Bob and Mark Ruffalo. Fargo did well at the Creative Arts Emmys so they obviously love the show, plus he played a psychotic and darkly funny scene stealer. On the other hand, Mark Ruffalo gave a very big, very showy performance with a lot of speechifying that they have always tended to respond to. I think it's a tossup here honestly, but I'm going to go for Billy Bob because I'm thinking that they may have liked Fargo more than The Normal Heart.
Winner: Billy Bob Thornton
Alternate: Mark Ruffalo
Dark Horse: Benedict Cumberbatch (not sure if there is a dark horse here, but Sherlock actually won some Emmys at the tech awards the other day for the first time ever- so it's possible this panel might feel it's time to award Cumberbatch).
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
• Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
• Sarah Paulsen, American Horror Story: Coven
• Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
• Minnie Driver, Return to Zero
• Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon
• Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
As much as I would love to see Kristen Wiig take this category, my guess is that it goes to Cicely Tyson pretty easily. Sometimes the name does matter, especially in the movie/mini category, and Jessica Lange has already won for American Horror Story (which isn't even a miniseries, but whatever). Bet on Tyson here.
Winner: Cicely Tyson
Alternate: Kristen Wiig
Dark Horse: Jessica Lange
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
• Colin Hanks, Fargo
• Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart
• Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
• Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart
• Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
• Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
This has to go to uber hottie Matt Bomer, who showed real range and acting talent in The Normal Heart, and his role in that movie just tore my heart in pieces, as I suspect it had to for anyone who watched it all the way through. He won the critics choice award for it (not that that means much) but considering his competition of nearly all co-stars here, I think he'll take it hands down.
Winner: Matt Bomer
Alternate: Alfred Molina (simply for name recognition alone, that always gives someone a chance in these categories)
Dark Horse: Martin Freeman (a true dark horse pick, but I suppose it's possible they'd want to honor him here if they were adding up his work on Fargo to the vote).
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
• Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven
• Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
• Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
• Allison Tolman, Fargo
• Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
• Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
Most people would probably tell you Julia Roberts takes this in a walk, but I'm not so sure. I could almost see any of these actresses winning. Ellen Burstyn's a big name, as well as Angela Bassett and Kathy Bates. And hey, if they loved Fargo a whole lot, Allison Tolman should stand as good a chance as anybody. I'll go ahead and predict Julia (I guess it'd be stupid not to, even though I thought she was actually a bit distracting in that part), but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here.
Winner: Julia Roberts
Alternate: Allison Tolman (I'm serious, don't count her out- she was great and if they actually watched it, they'll see that. But that's a question mark, since for this specific category they don't do individual submitted episodes- they've got to watch the whole thing, which dampens her chances frankly, because most people won't).
Dark Horse: Ellen Burstyn (she's very popular and it was a super baity part, so that could very well happen).
So that's it for today. Tomorrow I'll come back with predictions for acting in a comedy series, then drama on Thursday, and finally the top awards for series in all categories to close out the week.
