Emmy Predictions, Part 4: All Series

So now we get to my final predictions for all the top series awards. Aside from my Lizzy Caplan choice yesterday, I've been trying to play it pretty safe, and I'll continue to do so here.

Outstanding Drama Series

    •    Breaking Bad
    •    Downton Abbey
    •    Game of Thrones
    •    House of Cards
    •    Mad Men
    •    True Detective

Despite the buzz on True Detective in the early part of the year, I really think this award belongs to Breaking Bad again for the last season. Even though it aired a year ago now, the show was a mega phenomenon, and its final eight episodes were all incredible, far better than anything else on television. And the voters will be reminded of that when they have to look at all the tapes submitted. There just wasn't anything comparable and it's the last time they can ever reward it. I think it's a done deal.

Winner: Breaking Bad
Alternate: True Detective
Dark Horse: House of Cards (that's a pretty big long shot though).

Outstanding Comedy Series

    •    The Big Bang Theory
    •    Louie
    •    Modern Family
    •    Orange is the New Black
    •    Silicon Valley
    •    Veep

This is actually much tougher. On first glance, Orange definitely has the hype and the acclaim and the popularity- it would seem to be the perfect alternative to finally dethrone Modern Family, but I'm hesitant. For one thing, Modern Family had a better season this past year than the one before, and the tapes they submitted are undoubtedly funnier overall than anything Orange has, because that show is more of a dark comedy and sort of wobbles back and forth between comedy and drama. And also because the subject matter is edgy and controversial, involving prisoners and an almost entirely female cast- I'm not convinced this is the kind of show that the stodgy Emmy voters will respond to, even in the face of overwhelming buzz. Plus, Veep has actually been getting stronger at the Emmys every year, and they certainly love that cast- it's entirely possible that's more the kind of upscale show they prefer as an alternative. And hey, if votes end up split between those two shows, that may mean that Modern Family takes it once more (ugh). I'm unsure, but I'm going to assume they're sick and tired of watching Modern Family win and go with the newbie, although it's a three horse race and I wouldn't be very surprised to see any of them win.

Winner: Orange is the New Black
Alternate: Modern Family
Dark Horse: Veep

Outstanding Miniseries

    •    American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Bonnie & Clyde
    •    Fargo
    •    Luther
    •    Treme
    •    The White Queen

This is Fargo's for the taking. It would have been a far more interesting race if True Detective had submitted here as it should have. But since it didn't, it really has no competition and I'd be shocked if anything else won.

Winner: Fargo
Alternate: American Horror Story (very unlikely)
Dark Horse: none

Outstanding TV Movie

    •    Killing Kennedy
    •    Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
    •    The Normal Heart
    •    Sherlock: His Last Vow
    •    The Trip to Bountiful

The Normal Heart in a walk. It has a million nominations compared to everything else and it's on HBO.

Winner: The Normal Heart
Alternate: Sherlock (I'd give this maybe a 5% chance, although shouldn't the show be submitting in miniseries? What's with this ridiculous habit of calling one of its episodes a movie? The Emmy rules really need to be re-examined).
Dark Horse: none

Outstanding Variety Series

    •    The Colbert Report
    •    The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
    •    Jimmy Kimmel Live
    •    Real Time With Bill Maher
    •    Saturday Night Live
    •    The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon

I'm gonna say Colbert again, because it won the writing award last week, but The Tonight Show has a real chance here, because it's extremely popular and Jimmy Fallon turned his tenure as host into a major success very quickly. And I guess never count out The Daily Show as well, the ten time winner. But this may also be the last time The Colbert Report is even nominated, so I think it's fitting for it to go out on a second win.

Winner: The Colbert Report
Alternate: The Tonight Show
Dark Horse: The Daily Show

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

    •    The Amazing Race
    •    Dancing With the Stars
    •    Project Runway
    •    So You Think You Can Dance
    •    Top Chef
    •    The Voice

Probably The Voice again. It's still popular, although, after Top Chef won a few years ago, they went right back to The Amazing Race the following year, so keep that in mind. But I'll stick with The Voice.

Winner: The Voice
Alternate: The Amazing Race
Dark Horse: Top Chef (the only other past winner in this category)

So, that's it. Tune in on Monday night for my Emmy results and recap of the show, where we get to see how much of a fool of myself I made this time, although I really did try to play it as safe as possible. Maybe that was a mistake, maybe not, but we'll see soon enough. Fingers crossed!