Well, it's my least favorite time of year everyone- Emmy predictions week. The Emmys are on this Sunday (already a conflict for me since it's airing live against my Seahawks game on NBC-argh!), and to make matters worse, this year the TV Academy has completely upended the voting system. That's right, if guessing the winners was a crapshoot before, now it's a total free for all. They used to vote based on submission tapes watched by panels of a dozen or so voters, now it's a straight popular vote from thousands of voters. No one has any idea how it's going to go down this year, which means there is no strategy or precedent for predictions at all. So why do it? I guess I'm just a masochist. I won't bother to give detailed analysis this year though- know that I'm guessing based on name recognition and what I think is popular with the voters due to the number of nominations a show got. That's all I got for this season, folks! We're starting with TV movie and miniseries actors.
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
- Timothy Hutton, American Crime
- Ricky Gervais, Derek
- Adrien Brody, Houdini
- David Oyelowo, Nightingale
- Richard Jenkins, Olive Kitteridge
- Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
Ummm, I don't know. Possibly Richard Jenkins, since Olive Kitteridge has won a lot of precursor awards (I hated that show though). I really don't know who'd they go with otherwise, although it'd be cool if Mark Rylance won. He was pretty great in Wolf Hall.
- Winner: Richard Jenkins
- Alternate: Mark Rylance
- Dark Horse: Ricky Gervais (a big name)
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
- Felicity Huffman, American Crime
- Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
- Queen Latifah, Bessie
- Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honorable Woman
- Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge
- Emma Thompson, Sweeney Todd (Live from Lincoln Center)
Frances McDormand has won everything else for this role, so it'd be foolish to bet against her now.
- Winner: Frances McDormand
- Alternate: Queen Latifah (could benefit from a popular vote)
- Dark Horse: Maggie Gyllenhaal (she won the Golden Globe)
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
- Richard Cabral, American Crime
- Denis O'Hare, American Horror Story
- Finn Wittrock, American Horror Story
- Michael Kenneth Williams, Bessie
- Bill Murray, Olive Kitteridge
- Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall
Yikes. This one stumps me completely. I tend to lean Bill Murray, yet he actually hasn't won anything for that role despite being nominated everywhere. I'm gonna have to take a wild stab in the dark here and go for Damian Lewis, previous Emmy winner for Homeland.
- Winner: Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall
- Alternate: BIll Murray, Olive Kitteridge
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
- Regina King, American Crime
- Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story
- Angela Bassett, American Horror Story
- Kathy Bates, American Horror Story
- Monique, Bessie
- Zoe Kazan, Olive Kitteridge
Every year people say Sarah Paulson needs to win for AHS and it doesn't happen, so maybe this is the year it does? What hurts her is being up against bigger names from the same show though. Kathy Bates won last year, although I don't know if that means anything for her chances. Angela Bassett could take it. I do think it's between the three women of AHS.
- Winner: Sarah Paulson- if two heads can't do it, nothing can.
- Alternate: Angela Bassett
- Dark Horse: Kathy Bates
That's it for today everybody. I'll be back tomorrow with the comedy acting races, but again, I'm pretty much doing this for fun, so I'm warning you not to take me as a sage predictor of anything for the wackier than usual Emmys this year.
