Emmy Predictions, Part 2: Acting in a Comedy Series

Time to suss out the comedy races, which are most often prone to repeat winners these days. But with Orange is the New Black now coming into the race with a lot of heat, we'll see if any of those actresses can pull off a surprise win, like Uzo Aduba did for guest actress.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

    •    Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
    •    Ricky Gervais, Derek
    •    Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
    •    Don Cheadle, House of Lies
    •    Louis C.K., Louie
    •    William H. Macy, Shameless

I'm going to go very safe with this category and predict Jim Parsons to win a fourth. I know that sounds excessive, but a realistic alternative is really just Ricky Gervais, who the Emmys like and actually have rewarded before, for Extras. But this show Derek, on Netflix, is very divisive and his character a bit perplexing, so I'm not sure how likely it is that they'd go for him here. Still, if they're tired of Parsons at all, Gervais is probably the spoiler.

Winner: Jim Parsons
Alternate: Ricky Gervais
Dark Horse: William H. Macy (respected actor plus a baity role).

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

    •    Lena Dunham, Girls
    •    Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
    •    Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
    •    Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
    •    Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
    •    Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Again, I'm choosing to play it safe and say Julia Louis-Dreyfus wins her third in a row. Her submitted episode has some really funny moments, the Academy just loves her right now, and they have given out plenty of third wins in a row in their history. If anyone else can take it, it might be Melissa McCarthy, who's won before for Mike & Molly, is also very popular, and submitted a very good episode that showed a lot of range, comedy as well as emotion, which they like. But Julia's the safe bet.

Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Alternate: Melissa McCarthy
Dark Horse: Taylor Schilling (I don't really believe this will happen, but the show is the hot new thing at the moment, so she may have a slight chance).

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    •    Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    •    Adam Driver, Girls
    •    Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
    •    Ty Burrell, Modern Family
    •    Fred Armisen, Portlandia
    •    Tony Hale, Veep

There's not a real outstanding episode among this group, so I'm thinking they'll finally award Jesse Tyler Ferguson, who's been nominated every year for Modern Family and hasn't won yet. His episode has a great emotional moment as well as funny ones, and the season was built around Mitch and Cam's wedding storyline, so it'd be a way to recognize that. But frankly, any of these guys could win except for probably Adam Driver, including last year's winner Tony Hale, who has another great moment in his episode.

Winner: Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Alternate: Tony Hale
Dark Horse: Ty Burrell (just because you should never count him out, and he won the SAG recently).

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    •    Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
    •    Julie Bowen, Modern Family
    •    Allison Janney, Mom
    •    Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
    •    Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
    •    Anna Chlumsky, Veep

I think this is between newcomers Kate Mulgrew and Allison Janney, who both have great episodes and veteran status in their favor. Janney is beloved by the Emmys (she just won a sixth for guest actress the other day), but Mom was not a show they embraced on the whole, while Mulgrew is a longtime unrecognized figure in the industry who's a scene stealer on the hot new show of the moment. I think it's going to be Mulgrew as a way to honor Orange is the New Black.

Winner: Kate Mulgrew
Alternate: Allison Janney
Dark Horse: Julie Bowen (default status, but I'd honestly be pretty surprised if it was anyone other than those first two).

Emmy Predictions, Part 1: Acting in a Miniseries or a TV Movie

Starting today I'm going to take my life into my hands with some predictions for the annual Emmy ceremony next Monday. My record on this particular show was pretty dreadful last year, but in my defense, last year was a bizarre out of nowhere year where absolutely every winner was in total shock as well as the audience. Hopefully this time will be a little more predictable, at least for the sake of my credibility. But the Emmys are still a bit of a crapshoot, because the winners are voted on by individual viewing panels who choose after watching a submitted episode from each nominee. You never know what could happen when someone on a bad show sends in their one great episode of the season. So I'll start today with the acting winners in the TV Movie or Miniseries categories, and move through the other major nominations throughout the week.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie

    •    Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
    •    Martin Freeman, Fargo
    •    Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
    •    Idris Elba, Luther
    •    Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
    •    Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow

So, my gut tells me this is between Billy Bob and Mark Ruffalo. Fargo did well at the Creative Arts Emmys so they obviously love the show, plus he played a psychotic and darkly funny scene stealer. On the other hand, Mark Ruffalo gave a very big, very showy performance with a lot of speechifying that they have always tended to respond to. I think it's a tossup here honestly, but I'm going to go for Billy Bob because I'm thinking that they may have liked Fargo more than The Normal Heart.

Winner: Billy Bob Thornton
Alternate: Mark Ruffalo
Dark Horse: Benedict Cumberbatch (not sure if there is a dark horse here, but Sherlock actually won some Emmys at the tech awards the other day for the first time ever- so it's possible this panel might feel it's time to award Cumberbatch).

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie

    •    Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Sarah Paulsen, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
    •    Minnie Driver, Return to Zero
    •    Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon
    •    Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

As much as I would love to see Kristen Wiig take this category, my guess is that it goes to Cicely Tyson pretty easily. Sometimes the name does matter, especially in the movie/mini category, and Jessica Lange has already won for American Horror Story (which isn't even a miniseries, but whatever). Bet on Tyson here.

Winner: Cicely Tyson
Alternate: Kristen Wiig
Dark Horse: Jessica Lange

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie

    •    Colin Hanks, Fargo
    •    Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart
    •    Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
    •    Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart
    •    Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
    •    Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow

This has to go to uber hottie Matt Bomer, who showed real range and acting talent in The Normal Heart, and his role in that movie just tore my heart in pieces, as I suspect it had to for anyone who watched it all the way through. He won the critics choice award for it (not that that means much) but considering his competition of nearly all co-stars here, I think he'll take it hands down.

Winner: Matt Bomer
Alternate: Alfred Molina (simply for name recognition alone, that always gives someone a chance in these categories)
Dark Horse: Martin Freeman (a true dark horse pick, but I suppose it's possible they'd want to honor him here if they were adding up his work on Fargo to the vote).

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie

    •    Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Allison Tolman, Fargo
    •    Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
    •    Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart

Most people would probably tell you Julia Roberts takes this in a walk, but I'm not so sure. I could almost see any of these actresses winning. Ellen Burstyn's a big name, as well as Angela Bassett and Kathy Bates. And hey, if they loved Fargo a whole lot, Allison Tolman should stand as good a chance as anybody. I'll go ahead and predict Julia (I guess it'd be stupid not to, even though I thought she was actually a bit distracting in that part), but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here.

Winner: Julia Roberts
Alternate: Allison Tolman (I'm serious, don't count her out- she was great and if they actually watched it, they'll see that. But that's a question mark, since for this specific category they don't do individual submitted episodes- they've got to watch the whole thing, which dampens her chances frankly, because most people won't).
Dark Horse: Ellen Burstyn (she's very popular and it was a super baity part, so that could very well happen).

So that's it for today. Tomorrow I'll come back with predictions for acting in a comedy series, then drama on Thursday, and finally the top awards for series in all categories to close out the week.

TRAILER #2: "Homeland" Season 4

A new trailer for the next season of Homeland is here, where we get another look at Carrie's baby, plus Corey Stoll and Rupert Friend, who'll be working with Carrie in the Middle East. I wonder how they're going to deal with the death of James Rebhorn, who played Carrie's dad in the first three seasons. He was a fairly regular character, so they're going to have to either explain him away or recast him (shows don't do much recasting anymore, unless it was someone with a very minor role, like little Bobby on Mad Men, who they've recast three times).

TRAILER: "Boardwalk Empire" Season 5

I was sad to hear that the upcoming fifth season of Boardwalk Empire is also going to be its last. It's a show I've watched since the beginning and even though it seemed to lose buzz with every season, that was always a mystery to me since it's remained remarkably consistent in quality. But now, the final 8-episode arc will premiere on Sept 7th and big changes will already be in place, because we're jumping about seven years into the future to 1931. Prohibition will soon be coming to an end, along with Nucky's empire (and certain historical figures that have been on the show as regulars are supposed to be dead by now too- which means so long to Michael Stuhlbarg's Arnold Rothstein). Most of the cast does look to be returning though, so I look forward to finishing it out.

TEASER: "Better Call Saul"

Remember that Saul Goodman spinoff of Breaking Bad that's been talked about for months now? Well, it looks like it's finally happening, because AMC has released an 11-second teaser featuring Bob Odenkirk reprising the role in the supposed prequel/sequel (apparently events are supposed to take place in this show before and after what happened on Breaking Bad). I know the teaser's barely anything (I mean, come on- 11 seconds?) but we do get a premiere date, or part of one, out of it. Better Call Saul will show up sometime next February it looks like. I have a sinking feeling this show may not live up to the standards set by its predecessor, but I guess we'll all find out soon enough.