'Breaking Bad' and 'Modern Family' Top the 2014 Emmys

Well, it was a good night for the shows that won last year, as the Emmys went back to its usual repeat winners in most categories, and chose to shut out Orange is the New Black in favor of Modern Family again, as it now ties Frasier's record with five wins in the comedy series category. Breaking Bad also dominated, proving that the drama voters actually watched the tapes, resisting movie star McConaughey to instead make Bryan Cranston a four time winner. Here are the complete results:

DRAMA

    •    Series: Breaking Bad
    •    Lead Actor: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
    •    Lead Actress: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
    •    Supporting Actor: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
    •    Supporting Actress: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
    •    Writing: Breaking Bad
    •    Directing: True Detective

COMEDY

    •    Series: Modern Family
    •    Lead Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
    •    Lead Actor: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
    •    Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, Mom
    •    Supporting Actor: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
    •    Writing: Louie
    •    Directing: Modern Family

MOVIE/MINISERIES

    •    Miniseries: Fargo
    •    TV Movie: The Normal Heart
    •    Lead Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
    •    Lead Actress: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Supporting Actor: Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
    •    Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Writing: Sherlock: His Last Vow
    •    Directing: Fargo

VARIETY/REALITY

    •    Variety Series: The Colbert Report
    •    Reality-Competition Series: The Amazing Race
    •    Writing for a Variety Special: Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles
    •    Directing for a Variety Special: The 67th Annual Tony Awards

As you can see, the big upsets came in the miniseries categories, as the Emmy voters seem to have discovered Sherlock all of a sudden, awarding both Benedict Cumberbatch and Martin Freeman, while also resisting Julia Roberts and Cicely Tyson for Kathy Bates and Jessica Lange. I don't quite know what to say about all that Sherlock love, except that they obviously didn't like The Normal Heart that much (that lone TV Movie win seems a little bit like a guilt vote since they liked none of the actors, or the writing and directing. More thoughts on the Emmy show to come later, as I once again did badly predicting these (a woeful 8/18)- as it turns out I should have gone with my alternate choices for a bunch of these categories (six of my alternates were right this year).

Emmy Predictions, Part 4: All Series

So now we get to my final predictions for all the top series awards. Aside from my Lizzy Caplan choice yesterday, I've been trying to play it pretty safe, and I'll continue to do so here.

Outstanding Drama Series

    •    Breaking Bad
    •    Downton Abbey
    •    Game of Thrones
    •    House of Cards
    •    Mad Men
    •    True Detective

Despite the buzz on True Detective in the early part of the year, I really think this award belongs to Breaking Bad again for the last season. Even though it aired a year ago now, the show was a mega phenomenon, and its final eight episodes were all incredible, far better than anything else on television. And the voters will be reminded of that when they have to look at all the tapes submitted. There just wasn't anything comparable and it's the last time they can ever reward it. I think it's a done deal.

Winner: Breaking Bad
Alternate: True Detective
Dark Horse: House of Cards (that's a pretty big long shot though).

Outstanding Comedy Series

    •    The Big Bang Theory
    •    Louie
    •    Modern Family
    •    Orange is the New Black
    •    Silicon Valley
    •    Veep

This is actually much tougher. On first glance, Orange definitely has the hype and the acclaim and the popularity- it would seem to be the perfect alternative to finally dethrone Modern Family, but I'm hesitant. For one thing, Modern Family had a better season this past year than the one before, and the tapes they submitted are undoubtedly funnier overall than anything Orange has, because that show is more of a dark comedy and sort of wobbles back and forth between comedy and drama. And also because the subject matter is edgy and controversial, involving prisoners and an almost entirely female cast- I'm not convinced this is the kind of show that the stodgy Emmy voters will respond to, even in the face of overwhelming buzz. Plus, Veep has actually been getting stronger at the Emmys every year, and they certainly love that cast- it's entirely possible that's more the kind of upscale show they prefer as an alternative. And hey, if votes end up split between those two shows, that may mean that Modern Family takes it once more (ugh). I'm unsure, but I'm going to assume they're sick and tired of watching Modern Family win and go with the newbie, although it's a three horse race and I wouldn't be very surprised to see any of them win.

Winner: Orange is the New Black
Alternate: Modern Family
Dark Horse: Veep

Outstanding Miniseries

    •    American Horror Story: Coven
    •    Bonnie & Clyde
    •    Fargo
    •    Luther
    •    Treme
    •    The White Queen

This is Fargo's for the taking. It would have been a far more interesting race if True Detective had submitted here as it should have. But since it didn't, it really has no competition and I'd be shocked if anything else won.

Winner: Fargo
Alternate: American Horror Story (very unlikely)
Dark Horse: none

Outstanding TV Movie

    •    Killing Kennedy
    •    Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
    •    The Normal Heart
    •    Sherlock: His Last Vow
    •    The Trip to Bountiful

The Normal Heart in a walk. It has a million nominations compared to everything else and it's on HBO.

Winner: The Normal Heart
Alternate: Sherlock (I'd give this maybe a 5% chance, although shouldn't the show be submitting in miniseries? What's with this ridiculous habit of calling one of its episodes a movie? The Emmy rules really need to be re-examined).
Dark Horse: none

Outstanding Variety Series

    •    The Colbert Report
    •    The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
    •    Jimmy Kimmel Live
    •    Real Time With Bill Maher
    •    Saturday Night Live
    •    The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon

I'm gonna say Colbert again, because it won the writing award last week, but The Tonight Show has a real chance here, because it's extremely popular and Jimmy Fallon turned his tenure as host into a major success very quickly. And I guess never count out The Daily Show as well, the ten time winner. But this may also be the last time The Colbert Report is even nominated, so I think it's fitting for it to go out on a second win.

Winner: The Colbert Report
Alternate: The Tonight Show
Dark Horse: The Daily Show

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

    •    The Amazing Race
    •    Dancing With the Stars
    •    Project Runway
    •    So You Think You Can Dance
    •    Top Chef
    •    The Voice

Probably The Voice again. It's still popular, although, after Top Chef won a few years ago, they went right back to The Amazing Race the following year, so keep that in mind. But I'll stick with The Voice.

Winner: The Voice
Alternate: The Amazing Race
Dark Horse: Top Chef (the only other past winner in this category)

So, that's it. Tune in on Monday night for my Emmy results and recap of the show, where we get to see how much of a fool of myself I made this time, although I really did try to play it as safe as possible. Maybe that was a mistake, maybe not, but we'll see soon enough. Fingers crossed!

Emmy Predictions, Part 3: Acting in a Drama Series

So here we go now with the drama categories. This is a little tougher, because there are some genuine wild cards here, with several viable contenders in every category.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

    •    Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
    •    Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
    •    Jon Hamm, Mad Men
    •    Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
    •    Woody Harrelson, True Detective
    •    Matthew McConaughey, True Detective

So, this would appear to be between Matthew McConaughey for True Detective and Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad's final season. The thing is, because of McConaughey's star power, the fact that he just won the Oscar, this is his only chance to win the Emmy due to True Detective's one-off season, and he's a big movie star deigning to come down to TV- I kinda think he's got it in the bag. But if they're actually voting strictly on the episodes, which they sometimes do (see how Jeff Daniels won last year), then Cranston should blow everyone else out of the water. The episode he sent in was the best episode in the entire history of Breaking Bad. But I don't know if they can bring themselves to vote on just the episode when there's such a big movie star name on the ballot.

Winner: Matthew McConaughey
Alternate: Bryan Cranston
Dark Horse: Woody Harrelson (who knows, maybe the two different True Detective episodes will actually help the beloved TV vet Harrelson and not McConaughey. I'd say it's possible, but not likely).

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

    •    Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
    •    Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
    •    Claire Danes, Homeland
    •    Robin Wright, House of Cards
    •    Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex
    •    Kerry Washington, Scandal

Ok, now this one is a complete shot in the dark. Seriously, any one of these six women could win here, based on the episodes themselves, and various external factors that each have going for them. Claire Danes is a two time winner here, and her episode is great, but Homeland as a whole has fallen off the Emmy radar this year. Julianna Margulies is also a two time winner, and The Good Wife had a great season, although it was snubbed in series. Robin Wright has a hot show right now but sent in an episode that she wasn't in much of, and Kerry Washington may be seen as overdue, especially because there still has not been a black actress to win this category to date. Dockery actually has a pretty good episode here for once, and Downton is still a series nominee when most of these other shows aren't, and finally there's Lizzy Caplan, the newcomer, who also has a good episode and might be seen as something of a discovery, being the only first time nominee. Danes and Margulies might be the safer bets, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here.

Winner: Lizzy Caplan (that's right, I'm choosing the newbie, betting that she's going to stand out against all the other repeaters, but I'm consciously taking a big risk with this prediction)
Alternate: Julianna Margulies
Dark Horse: Danes, Wright, Washington or Dockery (no true dark horse- like I said, I think all of them have an about equal chance of winning)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    •    Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
    •    Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
    •    Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
    •    Josh Charles, The Good Wife
    •    Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
    •    Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

The guys that sent in the best episodes this year in this category were Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage, with Mandy Patinkin as the spoiler. I'm torn between Dinklage and Paul- on the one hand, this is Breaking Bad's last year and it's an episode that's similar to the ones Paul won for in the past, but Peter Dinklage has a great speech at the end of his episode that's even better and more dramatic than the one he won for back in the first season of Game of Thrones. I'm going to have to flip a coin.

Winner: Aaron Paul (good will for the final season will carry him through)
Alternate: Peter Dinklage
Dark Horse: Mandy Patinkin (he's really a lead in his episode and I think it's the best one he's ever submitted, but we'll see if there's any affection left for Homeland at all).

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    •    Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
    •    Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
    •    Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
    •    Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
    •    Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
    •    Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

I'm going to bet on Anna Gunn in this category, because she also sent in "Ozymandias," the best Breaking Bad episode ever, and she's heartbreaking in it, so I think she'll win for the second year in a row. Realistic alternatives besides her would be Christine Baranski, Maggie Smith (never count her out) and Joanne Froggatt, who had a very dramatic episode this past season as well. But I think Anna Gunn will pull this one out.

Winner: Anna Gunn
Alternate: Christine Baranski
Dark Horse: Joanne Froggatt

Emmy Predictions, Part 2: Acting in a Comedy Series

Time to suss out the comedy races, which are most often prone to repeat winners these days. But with Orange is the New Black now coming into the race with a lot of heat, we'll see if any of those actresses can pull off a surprise win, like Uzo Aduba did for guest actress.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

    •    Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
    •    Ricky Gervais, Derek
    •    Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
    •    Don Cheadle, House of Lies
    •    Louis C.K., Louie
    •    William H. Macy, Shameless

I'm going to go very safe with this category and predict Jim Parsons to win a fourth. I know that sounds excessive, but a realistic alternative is really just Ricky Gervais, who the Emmys like and actually have rewarded before, for Extras. But this show Derek, on Netflix, is very divisive and his character a bit perplexing, so I'm not sure how likely it is that they'd go for him here. Still, if they're tired of Parsons at all, Gervais is probably the spoiler.

Winner: Jim Parsons
Alternate: Ricky Gervais
Dark Horse: William H. Macy (respected actor plus a baity role).

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

    •    Lena Dunham, Girls
    •    Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
    •    Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
    •    Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
    •    Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
    •    Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Again, I'm choosing to play it safe and say Julia Louis-Dreyfus wins her third in a row. Her submitted episode has some really funny moments, the Academy just loves her right now, and they have given out plenty of third wins in a row in their history. If anyone else can take it, it might be Melissa McCarthy, who's won before for Mike & Molly, is also very popular, and submitted a very good episode that showed a lot of range, comedy as well as emotion, which they like. But Julia's the safe bet.

Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Alternate: Melissa McCarthy
Dark Horse: Taylor Schilling (I don't really believe this will happen, but the show is the hot new thing at the moment, so she may have a slight chance).

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    •    Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    •    Adam Driver, Girls
    •    Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
    •    Ty Burrell, Modern Family
    •    Fred Armisen, Portlandia
    •    Tony Hale, Veep

There's not a real outstanding episode among this group, so I'm thinking they'll finally award Jesse Tyler Ferguson, who's been nominated every year for Modern Family and hasn't won yet. His episode has a great emotional moment as well as funny ones, and the season was built around Mitch and Cam's wedding storyline, so it'd be a way to recognize that. But frankly, any of these guys could win except for probably Adam Driver, including last year's winner Tony Hale, who has another great moment in his episode.

Winner: Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Alternate: Tony Hale
Dark Horse: Ty Burrell (just because you should never count him out, and he won the SAG recently).

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    •    Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
    •    Julie Bowen, Modern Family
    •    Allison Janney, Mom
    •    Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
    •    Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
    •    Anna Chlumsky, Veep

I think this is between newcomers Kate Mulgrew and Allison Janney, who both have great episodes and veteran status in their favor. Janney is beloved by the Emmys (she just won a sixth for guest actress the other day), but Mom was not a show they embraced on the whole, while Mulgrew is a longtime unrecognized figure in the industry who's a scene stealer on the hot new show of the moment. I think it's going to be Mulgrew as a way to honor Orange is the New Black.

Winner: Kate Mulgrew
Alternate: Allison Janney
Dark Horse: Julie Bowen (default status, but I'd honestly be pretty surprised if it was anyone other than those first two).