Final Oscar Predictions: Lead Actor & Actress

Best Actor

• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street*
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Toughest category of all. I think these are the guys who will make it in though. Leo is the wild card, but the hype and buzz surrounding Wolf was so loud in the window of the voting period, and there is a lot of passion and admiration for the performance in certain circles, so I do think he edges out Robert Redford, who was not nominated at SAG or BAFTA. He could honestly still make it in on respect, but I'm going to predict Leo gets it. And the rest of the guys I think are safe, but if they really, really loved American Hustle, Christian Bale could sneak in here somewhere (he was nominated at every other major precursor), I just don't know who he'd replace. It's even possible that he's the one who takes Redford's slot and not Leo. Or he could knock out any one of the other five. It's the most competitive category by far.

Best Actress

• Amy Adams, American Hustle*
• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Basically the one call I'm making here is to say Amy Adams will push out Meryl Streep. It's a risky call to make, but I think the American Hustle love peaked at the right time and will carry her through. The rest are safe, maybe Emma Thompson was a bit vulnerable, but I doubt it. This is probably the lineup.

Blu-Ray Pick of the Week: "Rififi" (1955)

A really terrific French movie from the 1950's is on blu-ray today. One of the greatest heist movies of all time from director Jules Dassin, it's about a gang of criminals who commit the almost impossible task of robbing one of the most secure jewelry stores in Paris. The look and feel of this movie is perfect, it's all smoky atmosphere and 50's jazz cafes in Paris- and the actual heist sequence is one of the most famous of all time. Definitely look for this, it's suspenseful, exciting, dark and completely modern in tone.

Original 1955 Trailer (it's dubbed but the movie's in French):

Cinema Audio Society Nominees

The sound editors guild is the last one to report in before the Oscar noms:

Motions Picture- Live Action

• Captain Phillips
• Gravity
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Iron Man 3
• Lone Survivor

This usually matches 3/5 or 4/5 with the Academy's sound branch, so I'd say Iron Man's at least out there, but there's no real telling what might replace it. Could be Rush, 12 Years a Slave, even American Hustle. But the other four look like likely nominees to me.

REVIEW: "Frozen" (2013) Idina Menzel, Kristen Bell. Dir. Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee

Frozen, the latest animated feature from Disney, is loosely inspired by Hans Christian Anderson's The Snow Queen. Disney of course, has a long history of fairy tale adaptations and this latest entry is an attempt to dip back into that classic well of Disney Princess movies that, judging from the box office over the last few months, has captivated a whole generation of young girls much the same way those earlier films did. What's even better is that this one has a more overtly feminist message about female power, familial love and sisterly bonding, one that tells kids and girls especially, that family is much more important than finding true love.

That's a wonderful and well-intentioned message to depart, and the movie itself is a lot of fun, even if it doesn't quite reach the transcendent heights of past Disney classics like The Little Mermaid and Beauty and the Beast. Anything from the Howard Ashman era is probably out of reach though, unless they can find another lyricist and composer with a similarly gifted touch for combining musical theater and animation so seamlessly. Not that they don't try here, but given that this is an original full-length animated musical (8 new songs total), the music is unfortunately fairly lackluster, aside from the one show stopper, "Let it Go," which Broadway singer Idina Menzel belts out with force. It's the most memorable scene in the film, but I've already forgotten most of the other songs, even though the movie takes pains to place them carefully throughout its running time.

That structure doesn't exactly flow as well as in the older movies, where the songs were so brilliantly part of the storytelling, and here it's clear that the movie at times stops in order to make room for a song, often one that isn't exactly integral to the plot (I'm thinking of the snowman Olaf's introduction, or the final song in the movie, "Fixer-Upper," involving a group of singing trolls). But complaints like that are fairly minimal, and the story itself is about two sisters, the princesses of Arendelle- one is Elsa (Idina Menzel), the Snow Queen with magic powers who can freeze anything she touches, and the other her feisty younger sister Anna (Kristen Bell). The sisters are separated when Elsa's powers grow out of control, and she's taught to suppress and ignore them while living in isolation from the outside world. 

When the sisters are grown, the townspeople accidentally witness Elsa's uncontrollable power and she flees Arendelle, leaving the village trapped behind in eternal winter. Of course, it's up to Anna to go fetch her sister and bring her back, running into friends along the way, including Olaf the snowman (cleverly voiced by Josh Gad) and Kristoff the friendly ice deliverer (Jonathan Groff, who surprisingly isn't asked to capitalize on his own Broadway background for this). It's fairly thin material but the characters are cute and clever, and the animation is absolutely gorgeous. The eternal winter we see in the movie is stunning to look at and the animators are to be commended for the exquisite ice worlds they've created. The one thing the movie could have really used however was a better villain. For most of the film there isn't one, but when one is revealed towards the end it's in a kind of half-hearted manner that doesn't fully take advantage of the opportunity to present any real, threatening conflict. And hey, if there's one thing that makes Disney movies memorable it's all the great villains they've been able to come up with. Everything in this movie is a little too nice and simple by the end- some more conflict would have raised the stakes a little bit.

Still, it's a nice movie that kids will love, and it's great to see Disney attempting to revisit the highs of its glory years. After Tangled, Wreck-it Ralph (which was underrated and I think a better movie than this one) and now Frozen, it looks like the Mouse House is starting to regain some footing in animation again, and things definitely look to be headed in the right direction.

* * *

Final Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor & Actress

It's time to shore up my Oscar predictions for good, with the nominees set to be announced bright and early (5:30am PT) Thursday morning. I'll start today with the supporting acting categories, then lead ones tomorrow, followed by director, picture, and several extra categories on Wednesday. But, with all the critics awards and now Golden Globes in, here's what I think is going to happen:

Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Daniel Bruhl, Rush*
• Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

This seems to be the lineup that most would now expect, given the critical awards and number of major precursor nods. Although I do think there's room for a couple of surprises, which the Oscar nominations usually hold in store somewhere. Right now I think Jonah Hill could have an outside shot at replacing Daniel Bruhl, due to all the heat on Wolf of Wall Street that took place during the voting period, or even Will Forte if the voters really fell for Nebraska. But Bruhl would be the most vulnerable nominee on this list- I think everyone else is safe at this point.

Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County*
• June Squibb, Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey, The Butler*

This group is slightly shakier, as Lawrence and Nyong'o are still the ones who seem most safe, with June Squibb in third. But I'm iffy on Roberts and Oprah, even though both scored SAG and BAFTA noms. It depends on how deep the love for those movies are within the Academy, which is questionable at the moment. To me, Oprah is the one most likely to be replaced, and if she is it would probably be for either Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine (who landed Globe and BAFTA nods) or even Jennifer Garner in Dallas Buyers Club, a movie that is absolutely beloved by the guilds, and whose voters may have checked off all three actors from the film. The Oscars have produced occasional out of nowhere nominees in the past- I even think Octavia Spencer from Fruitvale Station (a Harvey Weinstein-backed movie) is still a slight possibility. But these are the safe predictions for now.

Denver Critics Like 'Gravity'; North Carolina Chooses '12 Years'

Two more regional groups. First up, the Denver Film Critics:

• Picture: Gravity
• Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
• Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
• Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Animated Film: Frozen
• Sci-Fi/Horror Film: Gravity
• Comedy: This is the End
• Original Screenplay: American Hustle
• Adapted Screenplay: The Wolf of Wall Street
• Documentary: The Act of Killing
• Song: "Let it Go," Frozen
• Score: Gravity
• Foreign-Language Film: The Grandmaster

Here are North Carolina's winners:

• Picture: 12 Years a Slave
• Documentary: Stories We Tell
• Animated Film: Monsters University
• Foreign-Language Film: The Hunt
• Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
• Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
• Original Screenplay: Inside Llewyn Davis
• Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
• Tar Heel Award: The Way, Way Back

12 Years a Slave, American Hustle Win Top Golden Globes

American Hustle wins Best Picture Comedy/Musical and 12 Years a Slave wins for Drama, in a surprise pick because the latter film won just Picture and nothing else. Here are the winners:

• BEST PICTURE DRAMA: 12 Years a Slave
• BEST DRAMA ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• BEST DRAMA ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL: American Hustle
• BEST COMEDY ACTRESS: Amy Adams, American Hustle
• BEST COMEDY ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• BEST SCREENPLAY: Her
• BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
• BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen
• BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Great Beauty
• BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: All is Lost

Looks like the Oscar race is firmly between American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave now, but we'll have to see what happens when the Oscar nominations come in on Thursday. The guilds, which always tell the real story, will weigh in in soon when SAG and PGA vote next weekend. The Hollywood Foreign Press are not the industry voters, so if there's a difference in taste we'll see it soon. As for the acting wins, Cate Blanchett and Jared Leto kick off what's soon to be a steamroller awards season for both of them, while there's a tough race for Best Actor, depending on who gets nominated Thursday. Jennifer Lawrence wins two years in a row, but it's still hard to imagine her doing the same thing at the Oscars, while Amy Adams is, like Leo, in a race to simply be nominated. As for my own predictions, I got all the acting winners right, but bombed out on Song, Score, Screenplay and Drama Picture, which I thought for sure would be Gravity. Still, for my first time predicting the Globes, 10/14 isn't too bad.

BOX OFFICE 1/10-1/12: 'Lone Survivor' Wows with $38 million; 'American Hustle' Passes $100 milllion

The Afghanistan war movie Lone Survivor expanded wide this weekend and took in a huge $38 million for the top spot in a complete surprise win. The only recognizable name in the movie is Mark Wahlberg, who, while reliable, normally isn't a huge draw on his own, but the film also earned a rare "A+" Cinemascore, so it should be looking at some decent legs. The audience was 57% male and over the age of 30, so it's possible the content alone is what drew this audience in for the second biggest January debut ever. Frozen took second place with another tiny drop from last week, bringing its total to $317 million, and with awards success over the horizon, this might be able to challenge Despicable Me 2 for the title of highest grossing animated film of 2013 ($368 million).

In third was Wolf of Wall Street, which continues to be successful after its initial underwhelming weekend, bringing in $9 million for a total of $78 million so far, and with quite a few more weeks to go, as it will also grab awards attention and likely Oscar nominations this week. Fourth was the new release Legend of Hercules, which bombed with just $8 million, and in fifth place was American Hustle, also with $8 million to bring its gross just past the $100 million marker, and likely with a lot more to go as well, given expected awards heat. The movie will end up being David O. Russell's biggest hit yet.

Top 5

1. Lone Survivor- $38.5 million
2. Frozen- $15.1 million
3. The Wolf of Wall Street- $9 million
4. The Legend of Hercules- $8.6 million
5. American Hustle- $8.6 million

Oscar movies August: Osage County, Her and Inside Llewyn Davis expanded this weekend to fairly middling results, as August did best, pulling in $7 million, while Her and Llewyn Davis faltered, especially Her, as it played in twice as many theaters as August did, and earned just $5 million. Potential for those films depends on award attention in the weeks ahead. Next week it's Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and the Ice Cube comedy Ride Along, as we'll see what movies will benefit from the Oscar nominations on Thursday, as they traditionally give several movies quite a big boost in theaters.

'12 Years' Sweeps Iowa Film Critics; Georgia Goes for 'Her'

The Iowa Film Critics bestowed nearly everything on 12 Years a Slave today:

• Picture: 12 Years a Slave
• Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
• Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
• Animated Film: Frozen
• Documentary: 20 Feet From Stardom

Meanwhile the Georgia Film Critics chose Her for Best Picture, but also showed a lot of love for 12 Years in the acting categories:

• Picture: Her
• Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
• Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
• Original Screenplay: Her
• Adapted Screenplay: Short Term 12
• Cinematography: Gravity
• Production Design: Gravity
• Song: "Please, Mr. Kennedy," Inside Llewyn Davis
• Score: Her
• Ensemble: American Hustle
• Foreign Film: No
• Breakthrough: Brie Larsen, Short Term 12
• Animated Film: Frozen
• Documentary: Stories We Tell

ACE Eddie Nominations

The Editor's Guild announced today, which is actually a very important one, because failing to score an Eddie nomination means it's practically impossible to win Best Picture. Editing is one of the most important technical categories next to directing:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)

• 12 Years a Slave
• Captain Phillips
• Gravity
• Her
• Saving Mr. Banks

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy/Musical)

• American Hustle
• August: Osage County
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Nebraska
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Edited Documentary

• 20 Feet From Stardom
• Blackfish
• Tim's Vermeer

Based on these nominations I'd say the following movies are safe for a Best Picture nomination: 12 Years, Captain Phillips, Gravity, American Hustle, Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street. They've managed to hit just about every guild. I'm sort of stunned by the inclusion of Saving Mr. Banks here, because if there's one thing that movie was it was poorly edited. My guess for the five editing noms at the Oscars are Gravity, Captain Phillips, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle and Nebraska, essentially the Best Picture heavyweights. Although odd ducks can occasionally get in- I wouldn't be surprised to see Rush score an editing nod, even though it was snubbed by the guild.

Golden Globe Predictions

Ok, so with the Golden Globes set to kick off awards season for real this Sunday, it's time to make some predictions about where the Hollywood Foreign Press is likely to go this year. As for what you need to know about the HFPA, this is a group of about 90 old people who are foreign journalists working in the U.S., they love big Hollywood stars but occasionally their European sensibilities show in the kinds of choices they make (this year they loved Rush and Philomena and completely rejected The Butler). I'm actually better at predicting the Oscars, but here I'm going to give it my best shot for the Globes. 

Best Picture- Drama

• 12 Years a Slave
• Captain Phillips
• Gravity
• Philomena
• Rush

My guess here is Gravity. This is the only group that picked Avatar over The Hurt Locker, they love the big extravagant special effects productions, and I think the violence and American history angle of 12 Years a Slave won't connect with these voters. Captain Phillips would probably be in third place.

Best Picture- Comedy/Musical

• American Hustle
• Her
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Nebraska
• The Wolf of Wall Street

American Hustle for the win. I don't think it's much of a contest, they loved Silver Linings Playbook as well, and this is the one with the most heat and buzz in recent weeks. There's an outside shot for Nebraska, but I think Hustle is the winner.

Best Actor- Drama

• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Robert Redford, All is Lost

This is a really, really tough one. Robert Redford is Hollywood royalty, but no one seems to like or have seen All is Lost. Tom Hanks is a big star as well and they loved the movie, so he stands a good chance. Matthew McConaughey is another big star, has never won a Globe and this was one of the best performances of his career, so I'm gonna say he takes it. But I'm very iffy on this one.

Best Actress- Drama

• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
• Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Boy, another tough pick. Probably Cate Blanchett, who's won nearly all the critics awards and is loved by the Globes over the years, but Judi Dench could be the one place to award Philomena, and Sandra Bullock stands a good shot as well if they really loved Gravity. But Blanchett is the safe choice here, so I'd say stick with her.

Best Actor- Comedy/Musical

• Christian Bale, American Hustle
• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
• Joaquin Phoenix, Her

I think this is between Leo DiCaprio and Bruce Dern. Leo's the big star and his buzz has been increasing lately, and he's won before at the Globes so they do like him. On the other hand, the HFPA did not love Wolf of Wall Street (no nomination for Best Director and there were rumors that members found it vulgar and offensive) but did like Nebraska a lot, so...it's 50/50 but I'm gonna say Leo wins because they want to see him on stage. I know that's lame but sometimes that's how the HFPA votes.

Best Actress- Comedy/Musical

• Amy Adams, American Hustle
• Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
• Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
• Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Another two way race between Amy Adams and Meryl Streep. I have a feeling it's Amy Adams' turn this year, and the love for American Hustle is strong, so I'm choosing her.

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Daniel Bruhl, Rush
• Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
• Michael Fassender, 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Yikes, this is another crapshoot. I honestly am not sure who they'd prefer out of these guys, so the safe choice is probably the critics pick, Jared Leto. But I'm thinking Daniel Bruhl has an outside shot for Rush. Still, i'll stay with Leto.

Best Supporting Actress

• Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
• June Squibb, Nebraska

If Jennifer Lawrence hadn't won last year she'd take this category in a walk. She might still do it, as I don't think the Globes will have as much resistance as the Oscars will to awarding someone so young back-to-back trophies. But Lupita Nyong'o would probably be the alternate choice. It also may not be wise to say 12 Years won't win anything, even though I don't think Globes voters think that way. Still, my instinct says Lawrence here, so I think I'll go ahead and stick with her.

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
• Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
• Alexander Payne, Nebraska
• David O. Russell, American Hustle

Alfonso Cuaron. Gravity was a huge directorial achievement they'll want to acknowledge.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Blue is the Warmest Color
• The Great Beauty
• The Hunt
• The Past
• The Wind Rises

The Great Beauty. Globes voters often don't go with the most acclaimed or Oscar frontrunner here, and this movie about Italy may appeal to them.

Best Animated Feature

• The Croods
• Despicable Me 2
• Frozen

Frozen. Easiest win of the night.

Best Original Song

• "Atlas" (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
• "Let it Go" (Frozen)
• "Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
• "Please Mr. Kennedy" (Inside Llewyn Davis)
• "Sweeter Than Fiction" (One Chance)

"Let it Go" from Frozen. The most memorable tune of the bunch.

Best Screenplay

• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle

Tough, but I'm gonna say Philomena. They'll want to probably give it an award somewhere and this is it.

Best Original Score

• All is Lost
• Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Gravity
• The Book Thief
• 12 Years a Slave

Steven Price for Gravity. I think the HFPA will be big Gravity supporters this weekend.

So there you go. I don't know how well I'll do, but I do think they'll love Gravity and American Hustle. We'll see what happens on Sunday though. Tune back in for the full winners list and my recap of the show, again hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. Until then!

NAACP Image Awards

In a great year for black films, the NAACP honored several today with their motion picture nominations:

Picture

• 12 Years a Slave
• Lee Daniels' The Butler
• Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Fruitvale Station
• The Best Man Holiday

Actor

• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Forest Whitaker, The Butler
• Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
• Chadwick Boseman, 42

Actress

• Nicole Beharie, 42
• Jennifer Hudson, Winnie Mandela
• Halle Berry, The Call
• Angela Bassett, Black Nativity
• Kerry Washington, Tyler Perry Presents Peoples

Supporting Actor

• David Oyelowo, The Butler
• Terence Howard, The Butler
• Cuba Gooding Jr., The Butler
• Terence Howard, The Best Man Holiday
• Morris Chestnut, The Best Man Holiday

Supporting Actress

• Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
• Lupita Nyong'o, The Butler
• Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
• Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave

Independent Motion Picture

• Blue Caprice
• Fruitvale Station
• The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
• The Trials of Muhammad Ali
• Dallas Buyers Club

International Motion Picture

• War Witch
• Call Me Kuchu
• La Playa D.C.
• High Tech, Low Life
• Lion Ark

Sadly, the Lead Actress category is the one where they had to do the most reaching, as there remains a major dearth of quality leading roles for women of color in Hollywood. I also think an oversight here would be Keith Stanfield in supporting for Short Term 12, one of the standout performances of 2013. The Image Awards take place Feb 22nd.