Ok, so with the Golden Globes set to kick off awards season for real this Sunday, it's time to make some predictions about where the Hollywood Foreign Press is likely to go this year. As for what you need to know about the HFPA, this is a group of about 90 old people who are foreign journalists working in the U.S., they love big Hollywood stars but occasionally their European sensibilities show in the kinds of choices they make (this year they loved Rush and Philomena and completely rejected The Butler). I'm actually better at predicting the Oscars, but here I'm going to give it my best shot for the Globes.
Best Picture- Drama
- 12 Years a Slave
- Captain Phillips
My guess here is Gravity. This is the only group that picked Avatar over The Hurt Locker, they love the big extravagant special effects productions, and I think the violence and American history angle of 12 Years a Slave won't connect with these voters. Captain Phillips would probably be in third place.
Best Picture- Comedy/Musical
- American Hustle
- Inside Llewyn Davis
- The Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle for the win. I don't think it's much of a contest, they loved Silver Linings Playbook as well, and this is the one with the most heat and buzz in recent weeks. There's an outside shot for Nebraska, but I think Hustle is the winner.
Best Actor- Drama
- Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
- Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
- Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
- Robert Redford, All is Lost
This is a really, really tough one. Robert Redford is Hollywood royalty, but no one seems to like or have seen All is Lost. Tom Hanks is a big star as well and they loved the movie, so he stands a good chance. Matthew McConaughey is another big star, has never won a Globe and this was one of the best performances of his career, so I'm gonna say he takes it. But I'm very iffy on this one.
Best Actress- Drama
- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
- Sandra Bullock, Gravity
- Judi Dench, Philomena
- Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
- Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Boy, another tough pick. Probably Cate Blanchett, who's won nearly all the critics awards and is loved by the Globes over the years, but Judi Dench could be the one place to award Philomena, and Sandra Bullock stands a good shot as well if they really loved Gravity. But Blanchett is the safe choice here, so I'd say stick with her.
Best Actor- Comedy/Musical
- Christian Bale, American Hustle
- Bruce Dern, Nebraska
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
- Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
- Joaquin Phoenix, Her
I think this is between Leo DiCaprio and Bruce Dern. Leo's the big star and his buzz has been increasing lately, and he's won before at the Globes so they do like him. On the other hand, the HFPA did not love Wolf of Wall Street (no nomination for Best Director and there were rumors that members found it vulgar and offensive) but did like Nebraska a lot, so...it's 50/50 but I'm gonna say Leo wins because they want to see him on stage. I know that's lame but sometimes that's how the HFPA votes.
Best Actress- Comedy/Musical
- Amy Adams, American Hustle
- Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
- Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
- Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Another two way race between Amy Adams and Meryl Streep. I have a feeling it's Amy Adams' turn this year, and the love for American Hustle is strong, so I'm choosing her.
Best Supporting Actor
- Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
- Daniel Bruhl, Rush
- Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
- Michael Fassender, 12 Years a Slave
- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Yikes, this is another crapshoot. I honestly am not sure who they'd prefer out of these guys, so the safe choice is probably the critics pick, Jared Leto. But I'm thinking Daniel Bruhl has an outside shot for Rush. Still, i'll stay with Leto.
Best Supporting Actress
- Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
- Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
- Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
- Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
- June Squibb, Nebraska
If Jennifer Lawrence hadn't won last year she'd take this category in a walk. She might still do it, as I don't think the Globes will have as much resistance as the Oscars will to awarding someone so young back-to-back trophies. But Lupita Nyong'o would probably be the alternate choice. It also may not be wise to say 12 Years won't win anything, even though I don't think Globes voters think that way. Still, my instinct says Lawrence here, so I think I'll go ahead and stick with her.
- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
- Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
- Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
- Alexander Payne, Nebraska
- David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron. Gravity was a huge directorial achievement they'll want to acknowledge.
Best Foreign Language Film
- Blue is the Warmest Color
- The Great Beauty
- The Hunt
- The Past
- The Wind Rises
The Great Beauty. Globes voters often don't go with the most acclaimed or Oscar frontrunner here, and this movie about Italy may appeal to them.
Best Animated Feature
- The Croods
- Despicable Me 2
Frozen. Easiest win of the night.
Best Original Song
- "Atlas" (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
- "Let it Go" (Frozen)
- "Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
- "Please Mr. Kennedy" (Inside Llewyn Davis)
- "Sweeter Than Fiction" (One Chance)
"Let it Go" from Frozen. The most memorable tune of the bunch.
- 12 Years a Slave
- American Hustle
Tough, but I'm gonna say Philomena. They'll want to probably give it an award somewhere and this is it.
Best Original Score
- All is Lost
- Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
- The Book Thief
- 12 Years a Slave
Steven Price for Gravity. I think the HFPA will be big Gravity supporters this weekend.
So there you go. I don't know how well I'll do, but I do think they'll love Gravity and American Hustle. We'll see what happens on Sunday though. Tune back in for the full winners list and my recap of the show, again hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. Until then!