'Spotlight' Wins SAG Ensemble Award

Well, this keeps things interesting. I went 3 for 5 in my predictions tonight, but the big surprise was Idris Elba winning for Beasts of No Nation, which served as a huge fuck you to the Academy, since he became the first SAG winner to not even be nominated for an Oscar. His snub, by the way, was by all measures the most egregious of the acting nominations, since he was nominated for the Golden Globe, SAG and Bafta, and should have been in there at the Oscars too. But AMPAS clearly does not want to recognize the legitimacy of Netflix yet- I'm positive that if that film had been released by a major studio in theaters Elba would have for sure gotten in. As for Spotlight roaring back tonight, I actually wouldn't put too much stock in that, because the SAG ensemble winner only matches Best Picture about 50 percent of the time. It's not a great record- remember, American Hustle won here just two years ago and then won nothing at the Oscars. But it means The Big Short doesn't have it wrapped up yet, as all eyes move on to the next guild, which is the DGA, now as important as it's ever been. It's still a competitive race.

2016 SAG AWARDS WINNERS

BEST ENSEMBLE: Spotlight
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
BEST ACTRESS: Brie Larson, Room
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Vikander winning this puts her in frontrunner status for the Oscar, and I believe the rest of the acting winners are now officially locked as well. Supporting actor could still be open, but Elba winning as a non-Oscar nominee was the best possible news for Stallone's chances in hanging onto that award.

New Trailer for 'Secret Life of Pets' Shows the Story of Lost Dogs

Okay, so this is like a cross between Homeward Bound and Toy Story, right? Combine that with the over 50 year history of kids and family movies about adorable dogs and this really seems like a movie that can't miss with audiences. Every beat is familiar, yet comfortable. I predict that it's a huge hit.

'Big Short' and 'Mad Max' Take ACE Eddie Awards

Well, the Editors Guild gave its two main prizes to the movies that were expected to win it, so no surprises here. Still, it's another guild win added to the The Big Short's total, and PGA + ACE isn't too bad a combination. The editing Oscar is expected to be between these two films as well, so no hints yet for that one.

Best Edited Feature- Comedy: The Big Short
Best Edited Feature- Dramatic: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Edited Feature- Documentary: Amy

My 2016 SAG Predictions

Yay, it's time for the Screen Actors Guild predictions! I went 5 for 5 on these last year, so hopefully I can do it again. But I have a feeling we'll be in for at least one surprise, maybe in the supporting actress category?

BEST ENSEMBLE

Trumbo
Beasts of No Nation
Spotlight
The Big Short
Straight Outta Compton

This award sometimes goes to the eventual Best Picture winner, sometimes not- the record is about 50/50 on that score. But this time, I'm thinking that it will be The Big Short, which just won the PGA last weekend. Lots of big name actors, showy performances, Steve Carell, who was on TV. Spotlight would be the other obvious contender, for its seamless ensemble filled with subtle performances. It's won the most critics prizes for the ensemble award, so that could easily happen. I think I'm just going to bet on The Big Short here though. It's an instinct.

Winner: The Big Short

Alternate: Spotlight

Dark Horse: Straight Outta Compton (this would be really cool, just out of maybe a reaction against the Oscar nominations from the much more diverse Screen Actors guild, but they almost always go with Best Picture nominees)

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

But this one's easy. Leo for the win. This is his year, he's winning everything. There's not much else to say.

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, The Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Brie Larson isn't as locked as Leo in this category, but she's probably pretty close. The only other person with a chance to steal is Saoirse, but it just seems to me like it's been decided that Larson's the one who should win this, after the Globe and Critics' Choice win.

Winner: Brie Larson

Alternate: Saoirse Ronan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

So, the person most likely to win the Oscar is Stallone, whom SAG didn't even nominate for this. Which makes it a free category. That's a tough one, but I would say it's between Bale, Elba and Rylance. I think I'm going to go with Christian Bale, because The Big Short looks strong in the overall race right now, and he may be the one to give Stallone a run for his money on Oscar night too.

Winner: Christian Bale

Alternate: Idris Elba (he's an enormously popular actor in both film and television who was outright snubbed by the Oscars for this acclaimed performance- I wonder if SAG may want to make it up to him here).

Dark Horse: Mark Rylance (he was the critic’s favorite and also acted in both film and TV this last year)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

There's no one with any real momentum here, but since Vikander seems to have been the critic’s darling for most of 2015 and kind of the breakthrough actress, I'm going to guess it goes to her. But this could easily be Kate Winslet as well, based on her respected veteran status. And whoever wins this category here will probably be my Oscar pick too.

Winner: Alicia Vikander

Alternate: Kate Winslet

Jacques Rivette 1928-2016

One of the last remaining pioneers of cinema's French New Wave passed away at the age of 87 today. Like his contemporaries and friends Francois Truffaut and Jean-Luc Godard, Jacques Rivette was a film critic turned director in the 1960's and made 28 feature films, most notably Paris Belongs to Us and Celine and Julie Go Boating. A film critic for the famed Cahiers du Cinema, he served as its editor from 1962-67.

Trailer for 1974's Celine and Julie Go Boating:

Trailer for New Stop Motion Animated Film 'Kublo and the Two Strings'

This looks very cool, and we should take a moment to appreciate the fact that Laika Studios has dedicated itself to being the only company still in the business of producing stop-motion animated features against the onslaught of boring CGI domination. I don't know about everybody else, but CG has proven itself to have limits to its visual creativity in ways that 2D and stop-motion do not. The features Laika has produced so far- Coraline, ParaNorman and The Boxtrolls, have all been more interesting and in unconventional ways than most animated films that flood the marketplace every year, so kudos to them.

Lily James Takes On the Apocalypse in Latest Trailer for 'Pride and Prejudice and Zombies'

I still think this movie looks really, really stupid- more a copy of recent crap like Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter than anything creatively inspired by a graphic novel. But I guess we'll find out soon enough. They don't bother to put any kind of a hook in these trailers besides girls in 19th century garb slicing up zombies either- no clever lines, satire or anything. Lame.

Batman and Superman Square Off in New Trailer for 'Dawn of Justice'

The latest trailer for this CG mess combines several of the most recent TV spots, and this is all you want to see of those, trust me. Every new piece of footage revealed from this thing makes it look worse. Superman is a scowling bully, Batman is wildly overacted with an even more ridiculous growl than he had in his last iteration (I thought no one's Batman voice could be worse than Christian Bale's), and Jesse Eisenberg? Again, the less said about him the better. The reviews on this one are going to be very interesting, if nothing else. Something tells me people who sat through Man of Steel aren't going to go in looking to give Zack Snyder a pass this time.

John Carney's 'Sing Street' Premieres at Sundance

John Carney, director of Once and Begin Again, premiered this coming of age film at Sundance just the other day, and the crowd went wild for it. Apparently another heartwarming, crowd-pleasing, original musical filled with new music, this time inspired by 1980's rock. I'm so there. Carney reminds me of Cameron Crowe when he was at his peak- the kind of guy who can make sentimental, feel good films with warm characters you want to spend time with, and never leave their universes. The kind of sentiment that hits the sweet spot by falling just shy of cheesiness- in other words, my kind of movie.

BOX OFFICE 1/22-1/24: 'The Revenant' Takes the Top Spot Over a Snowy Weekend

As winter storm Jonas pummeled the east coast this weekend and shut down theaters, The Revenant creeped up to No. 1 for the first time since its release, pulling in 16 million and 119 million total. This is, needless to say, the highest grossing Inarritu movie ever and his first to hit the top spot at the box office, no doubt fueled by the 12 Oscar nominations it hauled in a couple weeks ago.

Meanwhile, Ride Along 2 suffered a steep drop and fell to third, earning 12 million for a 59 million domestic total and paving the way for Star Wars to retake second place. TFA earned another 14 million, adding to its now 879 million total as it is now the fourth biggest international grossing movie of all time, surpassing Jurassic World earlier this week. Worldwide, it's still behind Titanic and Avatar- we'll have to see if it can topple Titanic or not, with Avatar's total seemingly out of reach. The rest of the top five was filled by new releases that did not impress, with Dirty Grandpa and the horror movie The Boy sneaking in with fairly lame debuts for both. Chloe Moretz's YA adaptation The 5th Wave did not make the top five, ensuring this one will not become a franchise.

Top 5:

The Revenant- 16 million
Star Wars: The Force Awakens- 14.3 million
Ride Along 2- 12.3 million
Dirty Grandpa- 11.5 million
The Boy- 11.3 million

We're pretty much in the dog days of January, with nothing coming out in limited release lately and the film festival crowds gathering in Sundance this week with a slate of potential Oscar contenders for next year's awards season being screened. In light of that, there's not much to talk about, with nothing of note coming out until the Coen Brothers Hail, Caesar on February 5th, followed by Deadpool and Zoolander 2 on the 12th. Until then, we slog through. Stay warm everybody.

'The Big Short' Takes the PGA, Becomes Oscar Frontrunner

Well, we had another shocker here, guys. The year after Birdman stunned everyone by upsetting at the PGA and going on to win the Oscar, now The Big Short takes out the competition and solidifies itself as the Best Picture contender to beat. In fact, I'll go ahead and tell you right now that I trust the PGA winner over every other predictor when it comes to Best Picture, simply because it's matched up the last 7 years in a row. And the Producers Guild uses the same exact ballot that the Academy does and have roughly about the same number of members in its organization- that's why it's been so reliable in recent years. And the truth is it shouldn't be that surprising, considering how well this movie has performed with all the guilds, hitting everywhere it needed to, including in the Oscar nominations. It's clearly the industry's favorite. We've got some more guilds to weigh in, including SAG next weekend, and DGA in a few weeks, but right now I'm saying it's Big Short for Picture and Adam McKay for director. Your best bet is always to stick with the guilds overall, and if it comes down to it, the PGA in particular, and it has now spoken.

2015 PGA WINNERS:

Feature: The Big Short
Animated Feature: Inside Out
Documentary Feature: Amy

Key and Peele Search for 'Keanu' in Their First Movie

Okay, this looks hilarious. The brilliant Comedy Central duo make their movie debut with Keanu, and I'm so there. These guys are awesome.