National Society of Film Critics Choose 'The Rider' As Best of 2018

So here it is, the last of the four major critics groups picked The Rider for Best Picture this afternoon, followed by Roma and Burning in second and third place. That’s an interesting choice. I guess to need to see this movie, huh? (It was also on Obama’s best movie list, so I think I’ll have to weigh in on it). I also love the nods here to The Death of Stalin in screenplay and Steven Yeun, who really is great in Burning.

• Best Picture: The Rider

• Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

• Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

• Best Actress: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

• Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun, Burning

• Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

• Best Screenplay: The Death of Stalin

• Best Cinematography: Roma

• Best Foreign-Language Film: Roma

• Best Documentary: Minding the Gap

Golden Globe Predictions for Sunday

This weekend is the Golden Globes and it’s time to do predictions! These are fun, because they tend to be all over the place and the Globe winner for Best Picture is not necessarily the Oscar winner (there’s about a 50/50 ratio over the years). The Hollywood Foreign Press sometimes like big stars and more Euro-centric films, but occasionally they go indie too. I’ve noticed they tend to flip back and forth in recent years, depending on what they’re trying to prove, although since it’s a group of just 100 foreign journalists, they are always susceptible to the nominees and publicists who woo them the most. Let’s see how well (or not) I can read these guys this year.

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

• BlacKkKlansman

• Black Panther

• Bohemian Rhapsody

• If Beale Street Could Talk

• A Star is Born

I think this is between Black Panther and A Star is Born, although BlacKkKlansman has a chance as well. And this is really tough actually- I think A Star is Born is more of a Globes-y pick and it has a lot more nominations, like directing and acting, but with Black Panther being such a phenomenon this year, can it be denied? 

Winner: A Star is Born

Alternate: Black Panther

Dark Horse: BlacKkKlansman

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

• Crazy Rich Asians

• The Favourite

• Green Book

• Mary Poppins Returns

• Vice

This one’s even harder for me. The HFPA obviously loved Vice, but the nominations were in before the movie’s reviews came out, which were quite mixed. Will that make the voters wary of picking it? The Favourite has been quite popular, especially with overseas voters, but it missed a director nomination here, so maybe it’s not as strong. Green Book has all the right nominations, including director and screenplay. Could that win? They still love musicals traditionally, so could it even be Mary Poppins Returns? I honestly don’t know. I’ll have to go with the one that has the most nominations.

Winner: Vice

Alternate: Green Book

Dark Horse: The Favourite


BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA

• Glenn Close, The Wife

• Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

• Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• Rosamund Pike, A Private War

I think this is easily Lady Gaga, right? Such a Globes style pick and they loved the movie. 

Winner: Lady Gaga

Alternate: Glenn Close

BEST ACTOR- DRAMA

• Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

• Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

• Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

• John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

This one has to be between Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek. I’m honestly not sure, because I think A Star is Born will win in other places, so will it win everywhere? Malek’s movie was a huge hit and it got a Best Picture nomination here too. I think this is a coin toss.

Winner: Bradley Cooper

Alternate: Rami Malek

BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

• Olivia Colman, The Favourite

• Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

• Charlize Theron, Tully

• Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

This is either Olivia Colman or Emily Blunt, and I’m going with Colman, given the The Favourite’s critical acclaim. But Blunt’s not a wild card choice, she’s pretty loved by the Globes, and musicals have historically been popular with them.

Winner: Olivia Colman

Alternate: Emily Blunt

BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Christian Bale, Vice

• Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

• Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

• John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

It’s definitely Mortensen or Bale, and given the level of Christian Bale’s physical transformation, I think that gives him the edge. 

Winner: Christian Bale

Alternate: Viggo Mortenson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Vice

• Claire Foy, First Man

• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

• Emma Stone, The Favourite

• Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

I think this is Amy Adams or Regina King, but the Globes love Amy Adams, so I think she’ll probably win. It could also be one of the two from The Favourite, but there being two of them likely cancels each other out.

Winner: Amy Adams

Alternate: Regina King

Dark Horse: Rachel Weisz


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book

• Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

• Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

• Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

• Sam Rockwell, Vice

I’m thinking Mahershala Ali here, for Green Book, but Adam Driver or Richard E. Grant has a chance too. I also wonder what else BlacKkKlansman could win, if they want to spread the wealth at all.

Winner: Mahershala Ali

Alternate: Adam Driver

Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant

BEST DIRECTOR

• Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

• Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

• Peter Farrelly, Green Book

• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

• Adam McKay, Vice

So I assume that Cuaron is going to sweep the directing awards this whole season, and it’ll start here. Roma isn’t up for Picture because the Globes inexplicably ban movies in foreign languages from being submitted in the Best Picture categories (I know- insane, right?). But they’ll make up for that by giving him Best Director. I suppose Spike Lee does have a chance here, and possibly Bradley Cooper, if they love that movie enough (and he doesn’t win Best Actor).

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Alternate: Bradley Cooper

Dark Horse: Spike Lee

BEST SCREENPLAY

• Roma

• The Favourite

• If Beale Street Could Talk

• Vice

• Green Book

This is where I think Vice will win, but The Favourite could easily take this too.

Winner: Vice

Alternate: The Favourite

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Incredibles 2

• Isle of Dogs

• Mirai

• Ralph Breaks the Internet

• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I used to think Incredibles 2 was going to walk away with the animated awards, but the amazing success of Into the Spider-Verse has me thinking otherwise. People LOVE that movie (I haven’t seen it yet). I think I’m going to say that the Globes with go with it too, but it’s not a sure thing. They may even like Isle of Dogs here.

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Incredibles 2

Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• A Quiet Place

• Isle of Dogs

• Black Panther

• First Man

• Mary Poppins Returns

On quality alone, this really needs to go to First Man. The fact that the Globes nominated it here, despite ignoring the movie entirely everywhere else, makes me think they can at least recognize the greatness of that score, but will it win? Mary Poppins might have the edge for this, or even Isle of Dogs. Also, Black Panther probably has to win something (if it doesn’t get Best Picture). Now that I think about it, that probably gives it a leg up in this category, which is the only other place it’s nominated (besides song, but I think “Shallow” has that one walking in).

Winner: Black Panther

Alternate: Mary Poppins Returns

Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum

• Girl

• Never Look Away

• Roma

• Shoplifters

Now this one’s Roma, hands down. Anything else would be an upset.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “All the Stars,” Black Panther

• “Revelation,” Boy Erased

• Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’

• “Shallow,” A Star is Born

• “Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War

Most likely A Star is Born. Easy call, I think. But there is a chance for Kendrick Lamar too.

Winner: “Shallow”

Alternate: “All the Stars”

2018 Producers Guild Nominees Announced

The PGA is a very important industry guild, the only one that uses the same kind of voting system that the Academy does, which is why their winner is very often the Best Picture winner as well (as it was last year, with The Shape of Water). Their nominees match Oscar Best Picture by about 80-90%. Take out Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place and this list looks like the Best Picture list to me (the Academy doesn’t have the full ten, like the PGA does). Remember how I said if Bohemian Rhapsody got a PGA nomination it was probably happening in Best Picture? Well it just did, so it looks like that’s a thing. The only chance for something to make it in that didn’t here is probably the critical darling If Beale Street Could Talk, but it’s looking like that one might not be as loved by the industry, so this could just be it. Too bad about First Reformed and First Man too- those were really great movies that deserved more recognition.

• BlacKkKlansman

• Black Panther

• Bohemian Rhapsody

• Crazy Rich Asians

• The Favourite

• Green Book

• A Quiet Place

• Roma

• A Star is Born

• Vice

Barack Obama's Favorite Movies of 2018

Sigh. Remember when we had a real president, one with exceedingly good taste and a real appreciation for culture and the arts? Not only is this list amazing (Minding the Gap, Roma, Black Panther, The Death of Stalin and BlacKkKlansman are all going to be on my top ten this year as well, and I have yet to see Beale Street, Burning, and Shoplifters), but it could very well have come from a well rounded critic or cinephile who has a deep knowledge and love of film. I’ve seen people question that someone made up this list for him, but who are you kidding, people? He’s not a liar, unlike the worthless fraud squatting in the people’s house right now, who can’t read and couldn’t make it through five minutes of any of these movies. I miss my president so much. My only question is, what’s on your TV list, sir??

President Obama’s Favorite Movies of 2018

• Annihilation

• Black Panther

• BlacKkKlansman

• Blindspotting

• Burning

• The Death of Stalin

• Eighth Grade

• If Beale Street Could Talk

• Leave No Trace

• Minding the Gap

• The Rider

• Roma

• Shoplifters

• Support the Girls

• Won’t You Be My Neighbor

Jordan Peele is Back With 'Us,' His First Movie Since 'Get Out'

Lupita Nyong’o is starring in Oscar winner Jordan Peele’s first film since Get Out, a new horror movie that looks mighty creepy. Appropriately enough, the trailer drops on Christmas Day of course. Hard to tell if this one will have the same kind of satire/social commentary of his last film, but on first glance it looks more like traditional horror to me. It’s coming out next March.

Tessa Thompson and Chris Hemsworth Take Over the 'Men in Black' Franchise

A Thor: Ragnarok reunion here as these two try to keep this long-running series going, but I have to confess something- I was never a fan of the Men in Black movies. Nope, not even the first one. I guess it had its amusing moments, but I only saw it once and then never again, and didn’t bother with any of the sequels, so even if this is good (doesn’t look that funny from this trailer) it won’t be for me.

David Harbour Takes Over the Hellboy Role in Trailer for Reboot

Guillermo del Toro’s sleeper Hellboy movies had a perfect actor in Ron Perlman as the laconic character, but is it me or does this reboot look kinda good? David Harbour from Stranger Things is taking over (and doesn’t look much different as far as the makeup goes), but he looks to be bringing a certain spirited attitude to the part. The new director is Neil Marshall, a British filmmaker whose first two horror movies, Dog Soldiers and The Descent, were pretty good, so maybe this one will deliver. It won’t have that unique del Toro flavor of course, which is too bad. I always wanted to see a third sequel to that series. This one is coming out in April.

Lightning Round Reviews 2018: December

As I’m still slowly moving through my 2018 to-see list (only 23 more to go!), here’s the latest crop, a much better batch in terms of quality than last time. I think my favorite of this group was probably A Star is Born, but that hardly needs a plug, does it? Minding the Gap is a very close second and will place highly on my top ten, I’m sure. Everyone should see this documentary. It’s on Hulu- seek it out.

THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS * * * (Dir. Tim Wardle)

A crazy true story turns dark

Three Identical Strangers tells a remarkable true story that is constantly shifting gears, from comic human interest miracle to nefarious mystery to a moving and tragic tale of loss spurned by the unethical, inhumane deeds of long shadowed figures who got away with human scientific experiments. Director Tim Wardle keeps the story unfolding in a continuously entertaining fashion as more secrets are revealed and the tone of the film shifts yet again. It starts off telling us about triplets Edward, David, and Robert who were separated at birth in 1961, found each other by coincidence twenty years later, and keeps investigating as we, along with the filmmaker, journalists and subjects, try to piece together the puzzle of the illusive circumstances surrounding the triplets’ adoptions and separation. A wider conspiracy is at play, exposing the consequences to perhaps dozens of lives, many of which to this day remain hidden in the sealed records of a still buried scientific study. The investigation is intriguing at every turn, but ends up raising more questions than answers as Wardle is barred from discovering the real truth behind this decades long mystery. In spite of the lack of conclusions, the film is made with empathy for all the victims involved and will leave you contemplating the mysterious and heartrending nature of these events long after it’s over.

SORRY TO BOTHER YOU * * * (Dir. Boots Riley)

An unexpected ride through a bizarre reality

Rapper and activist Boots Riley has a lot on his mind, and with his feature film debut he gives it to us in a wild, satirical, unexpected yarn worthy of Charlie Kaufman, but with pointed jabs at current society that are unmistakeable. Lakeith Stanfield stars as Cassius “Cash” Green, an Oakland resident who lives with his uncle, drives a broken down bug and just needs a job that pays the bills. He finds one in telemarketing and discovers that he’s quite a natural when he affects a “white accent” (the voice of the very white David Cross) to make sales and soon skyrockets up the corporate ladder, where some surreal, unpredictable events lie in wait. This is a movie that’s difficult to describe, filled as it is with visual gags, absurdist humor and pointed commentary on the nature of exploitation of the working class, both racial and economic, for the entertainment, profit and benefit of the one percent. You never quite know where this is going, as it starts out only subtly offbeat, but eventually takes turns that lead us down a darker and more fantastical path. Even with the twists you don’t see coming, the humanity of the characters is preserved, especially in the focus on the relationship between Cash and his girlfriend Detroit (Tessa Thompson), but the unpolished, amateur directing style of Riley hinders the cleverness of the script somewhat. Still, the zany nature of this unique film is like nothing else you’ll see this year (or most years) and for that it’s worth experiencing.

MINDING THE GAP * * * 1/2 (Dir. Bing Liu)

Minding the Gap is something truly special

A deeply thoughtful, compassionate and introspective debut film from Bing Liu, who spent his childhood and teen years filming himself and his friends, and then wove the footage together to create an extraordinarily empathetic portrait of young adult life in a blue collar city, and the effects that the cycle of poverty and abuse can inflict on the next generation. Bing and his friends Zack and Keire grew up in Rockford, Illinois. They all come from broken homes, all dropped out of high school, and all loved skateboarding as a way to escape the hardships of every day life in this seemingly desolate, dead end wasteland. Similarities don’t end there as we spend time getting to know each of them, and discover the lifelong patterns of domestic violence inflicted on them and their mothers by their fathers and stepfathers, and how that tragic cycle may be repeating itself in some of their own tendencies. Liu knows his friends well and tries to bring each of them out with on camera confessionals, weaving together recurring themes of race, class and abuse of women that are seemingly inescapable in this slice of middle American life, demonstrating the prevalence of these issues at the heart of society and in the country as a whole. At less than 90 minutes, every bit of Minding the Gap is an encapsulation of what eats at the souls of struggling young men in America, reminding us of the potential in all corners of the world that can so easily fall through the cracks, as hopelessness turns to despair and anguish. A must-see.

COLETTE * * * (Dir. Wash Wastmoreland)

Colette and Missy push boundaries in turn of the century France

Fun. Sexy. Breezy. These are words that don’t often describe period piece biopics, and yet Wash Wastmoreland’s Colette is exactly that- a light, frothy concoction of a movie that feels so airy it almost drifts away on its own weightlessness, and if not for the spirited performances of its stars, might do exactly that. Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette, one of the most famous French writers of all time, was a bisexual icon and celebrity of her day. This biopic covers a period of her life when she was married to her first husband Willy Gauthier-Villars, a pompous, self-indulgent man who ran a publishing house and took credit for the novels his wife wrote, novels which turned them both into the talk of Parisian society in the era of the Belle Epoque. Keira Knightley, the queen of the period piece, embodies Colette as her latest historical heroine, taking her from ages 19 to 34, when she was whisked away from the French countryside by Willy (rousingly played by the charismatic Dominic West) and blossomed as a socialite, writer and actress in turn of the century Paris. Never given credit for her bestselling Claudine books during her marriage, which were based on her own schoolgirl days, she eventually outgrew her piggish husband, coming into her own as an androgynous woman who wore men’s suits and demanded recognition. Colette and Willy’s marriage was unconventional for the time, as both openly pursued affairs with other partners (the chauvinist Willy accepts Colette’s infidelity as long as it’s with other women), and the movie’s focus on Colette and Willy misses an opportunity to further explore her relationship with the fascinating Missy (Denise Gough), an early transgender man who wore his identity out in the open. This feels like it could have been its own story, yet the movie stays built around Willy long after Colette has outgrown him, depriving us of a chance to see her in the bloom of her independence. Willy’s juvenile, fun-loving, chauvinist nature at times comes across as helplessly appealing in spite of it all. You can see what Colette saw in him, yet also how it was necessary for her to break free. Knightley and West have sparkling chemistry and shine together in a film that feels contemporary in the issues it confronts, yet lighthearted in its enjoyment of sexual liberation and female empowerment. Still, the Missy and Colette movie would make for an intriguing postscript to this chapter.

VENOM * * (Dir. Ruben Fleischer)

A strange and dull superhero movie

Sony has had a rough time with its superhero slate. The studio that owned the rights to Spider-Man lent him out to Marvel so that it could make a successful go of it with the character, leaving them with the rights to the rest of the Spider-Man universe, so of course they attempted to do something with Venom, one of the most popular antiheroes in the canon. But what they made was a weak, generic superhero origin story with one thing going for it, and that’s Tom Hardy’s utter commitment to the character. Giving a live wire, Nic Cage-esque performance as Eddie Brock possessed by the Venom symbiote, his bizarre, physical commitment to doing something weird with this formulaic script kinda carries the movie through its mercifully short running time, even if it doesn’t save it altogether. After a long, meandering setup establishing Brock as a failed journalist and loser, the symbiote finally attaches itself to him, allowing Hardy to go for it with the histrionics, leading to some unintentionally (and intentionally) funny bits as Venom (also Hardy, with a digitally altered voice) and Eddie trade barbs and battle for inhabitance of his body. This is a bizarre movie, with no memorable characters, an uninteresting plot, random action scenes, and a dull love interest in Michelle Williams, but it also doesn’t take itself that seriously (Hardy’s nuttiness pretty much prevents that from happening), so in the end it all pretty much comes to naught.

A STAR IS BORN * * * 1/2 (Dir. Bradley Cooper)

Old Hollywood melodrama at its finest

One of the oldest Hollywood stories in and about showbiz, A Star is Born is a tale that has been told onscreen three times before- the first was the 1937 drama with Fredric March and Janet Gaynor, the second 1954’s Judy Garland/James Mason musical version (probably the most famous) and the last was the 1976 Barbra Streisand/Kris Kristofferson telling (that of ‘Evergreen’ fame). By now the tale is nearly as old as the movies themselves, and yet the timeless nature of it makes for a smooth, classic retelling for yet another generation, this time in the form of Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut, a transition he makes seamlessly. Acting in the movie as the veteran star (this time a country rock singer in the vein of the Kristofferson role) who discovers the talent at a drag bar, his Jackson Maine finds Ally (one Lady Gaga), they fall in love, and she rises as he falls, following the well-trodden notes of the story. Still, there’s a warm comfort to this familiar melodrama, akin to meeting up with an old friend, especially when told as gracefully as Cooper manages it, staging the concert scenes in spectacular, exciting form (he does his own singing!), as Gaga takes over with her powerhouse performing talent. The music is all original and fantastic, especially the show stopping duet “Shallow,” (the future Oscar winner for Best Song). Gaga reveals a natural ability in front of the camera (and onstage of course), but Cooper really shines as the alcoholic Jackson, this time around given at least a stint in rehab and a moving relationship with an older brother (Sam Elliott) to give the character more depth than he’s ever had before. The chemistry between Cooper and Gaga is real, sweet, and authentic, with the ensemble cast (see if you can recognize Andrew Dice Clay) giving solid turns in support of the leads, who carry the movie through to its inevitable, tearjerking ending. It’s hard to make any movie that recalls the classic beats of an old Hollywood melodrama, let alone one that’s been told three times before, yet Cooper’s assured, confident and romantic ability behind and in front of the camera, paired with Gaga’s original music and performing talent makes for a gloriously heartwarming triumph of old-fashioned entertainment.

Cate Blanchett Stars in Richard Linklater's 'Where'd You Go Bernadette'

Not sure what to think about this one, and I have a feeling the studio didn’t quite know how to market it either. Apparently the novel’s not so much of a comedy, but this trailer sure wants you to think it is. This movie was supposed to come out this fall, but it was pushed back to next spring, so make of that what you will. It seems outside the usual wheelhouse of its director (Linklater did Boyhood and the Before trilogy, but also School of Rock and Bernie, so maybe this is more in that vein). Getting kind of a “young adult subject matter for normal adults” vibe though.

Penny Marshall 1943-2018

Sad news today, as the actress turned director Penny Marshall has died at the age of 75. She first gained fame as Laverne on the classic 1970’s sitcom Laverne & Shirley, a spinoff of Happy Days, and a role which earned her three Golden Globe nominations from 1976-1983. She then went on to become a successful director and producer, displaying a light touch and a feel for blending comedy and drama. She was the first woman to direct a movie that made over $100 million at the box office (first Big and then she did it again with A League of Their Own) and one of only seven women to have one of her films nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars (Awakenings). Her filmography included Jumpin’ Jack Flash (1986), Big (1988), Awakenings (1990), A League of Their Own (1992), Renaissance Man (1994), The Preacher’s Wife (1996) and Riding in Cars With Boys (2001). The sister of Garry Marshall, who produced and co-created Laverne & Shirley, and with whom she worked together quite often, she was also married to Rob Reiner from 1971 to 1981, with whom she has a daughter Tracy, and five grandchildren. She passed away from complications of diabetes in Los Angeles.

Check out this American Bandstand interview from ‘76 for the way she handles these crazy sexist questions from the audience. I love her reaction to the idea that she’d rather be a full time wife, and Dick Clark condescendingly approves that “all women ought to have activity.” Thanks, Dick.

First 'Downton Abbey' Teaser Trailer Arrives

Three years after the show ended, the Downton Abbey movie is coming in September of next year. This is kind of a lame teaser, because literally all it shows is the house, but with the entire cast back for it (including Maggie Smith), I’m sure the fans will be psyched. I really don’t know what there is left to say about these people though- it was a pretty resolved ending from what I remember.

'A Star is Born' Leads Screen Actors Guild Nominations

The SAG awards are the first major industry guild to weigh in, and A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, followed by BlacKkKlansman with three. SAG usually tells us who most of the acting Oscar nominees will be, minus maybe one or two per category. The ensemble prize used to be an important precursor for Best Picture, but last year was the first year in two decades the eventual Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water, wasn’t even nominated for it. So that might not be as big a deal anymore. I’m surprised The Favourite, which got three acting nods, didn’t get in for ensemble, and that some other movies with a couple of solo acting nods didn’t either, like Vice and especially Green Book. Ethan Hawke being snubbed here and by the Globes for Best Actor in First Reformed means he might not get that Oscar nod after all, though it’s still possible.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star is Born

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalemet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams - Vice
Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie - Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weiss - The Favourite

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Antman and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
Mission: Impossible – Fallout

There’s at least one slot open in the Best Actress race, although it looks like Emily Blunt has a decent chance to take it for Mary Poppins (but that’s not a lock- the movie’s reviews aren’t that great and there are other contenders there that could sneak in). I think there’s two slots open for Supporting Actress, because Emily Blunt is not supporting in A Quiet Place (she’ll be replaced by Regina King, I’m sure- the total snub of If Beale Street Could Talk may mean screeners weren’t sent in time, which is a notorious issue with this guild), and I don’t think Margot Robbie will get in either. One more note: I’m honestly starting to think Bohemian Rhapsody might get nominated for Best Picture despite the terrible reviews. Rami Malek has been nominated everywhere and the movie now has a Golden Globe nom for Best Picture Drama (which has a lot more heft with Oscar than the Musical/Comedy category) and now SAG ensemble. People love this movie, it’s a huge hit, and every once in a while, a really popular bad movie gets into Best Picture (like The Blind Side). If it gets into the PGA noms I think it’s happening.

Can Emily Blunt get her first Oscar nod for a role that won Julie Andrews hers?