Okay, onto the screenplays and the separate feature film categories. Feeling relatively good about my picks here, since there seem to be clear frontrunners in most of them.
BEST FILM EDITING
- Baby Driver
- Dunkirk
- I, Tonya
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Feeling good about picking Dunkirk for this, since it won the ACE Eddie Award, which is the most predictive guild. Baby Driver actually won the BAFTA though, so that could be a spoiler, but non-Best Picture nominees don’t usually win this category, so it would be a risk to choose that.
Winner: Dunkirk
Alternate: Baby Driver
BEST DOCUMENTARY
- Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
- Faces Places
- Icarus
- Last Men in Aleppo
- Strong Island
After the presumed frontrunner Jane was snubbed for even a nomination, most people thought that honorary winner Agnes Varda would win this for Faces Places, but I think it’s going to go to Last Men in Aleppo. The Syrian documentary is similar to last year’s doc short winner The White Helmets, and the Syrians who made the film have been banned from coming to the ceremony thanks to our shitheel in chief’s bullshit muslim ban. The Syrian government refuses to expedite their VISA process to let them come and the Academy put out a statement in solidarity with the filmmakers, so I have to believe their movie is winning this now.
Winner: Last Men in Aleppo
Alternate: Faces Places
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
- A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
- The Insult (Lebanon)
- Loveless (Russia)
- On Body and Soul (Hungary)
- The Square (Sweden)
The big frontrunner here seems to be A Fantastic Woman, which stars transgender actress Daniela Vega, who’s gotten a lot of acclaim for the film. Second place would likely be Sweden’s The Square, but I think A Fantastic Woman has it.
Winner: A Fantastic Woman
Alternate: The Square
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- The Boss Baby
- The Breadwinner
- Coco
- Ferdinand
- Loving Vincent
This one’s Coco, no alternate needed. Eventually the Pixar or Disney hit of the year will lose this award to something (anything) else, but I can’t complain about it since Coco’s a good movie.
Winner: Coco
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Call Me By Your Name
- The Disaster Artist
- Logan
- Molly’s Game
- Mudbound
There’s really no need for an alternate in this category either, since Call My By Your Name won the WGA, Scripter and BAFTA precursors for this award.
Winner: Call Me By Your Name
Alternate: Mudbound (if it’s anything else, but it won’t be)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- The Big Sick
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Now this is one of the most interesting categories of the night. I’m going with Get Out, which won the WGA and Critics Choice, but that’s because I’m predicting the movie to win both this and Picture. It could very well go home empty-handed. Three Billboards is pretty beloved and won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and was ineligible for the WGA, so the truth is we don’t know if it would have beaten Get Out there. This is a 50/50 call. And if Billboards were to win this, that signals a lot more love for it than I’m betting on, which means it’s still a real threat for Best Picture.
Winner: Get Out
Alternate: Three Billboards
Dark Horse: Lady Bird (still wondering if this movie will go home empty-handed too)
