2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 4: Acting

Oy. We’re at the actors now, which is my most hated category this year. Why? Because I disagree with the seemingly locked frontrunners in almost all of these categories. Ugh. Wake me when it’s over.


  • Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Gary Oldman is going to win, and this is the one I’m most okay with, because I did think he was amazing in Darkest Hour. I don’t even know what else to say about it though, because he’s won all four major precursors- Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA. It’s a done deal for the veteran character actor.

Winner: Gary Oldman


  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

I can’t predict anyone other than McDormand. I HATED that movie so much and I can’t tell you how how much it bothers me that it’s going to win all these awards on Oscar night, but like Oldman and the two other frontrunners, she won every single precursor award, so there’s no justification for choosing anyone else. By the way, people don’t lose the Oscar if they win all four of those awards- it’s never happened. I suppose there’s a first time for everything and maybe Saoirse Ronan can take it if they want to give Lady Bird something, but I don’t see it happening. 

Winner: Frances McDormand

Alternate: Saoirse Ronan


  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My mood darkens more and more as I go down this list. Two nominations here for Billboards is more of an indication how much the actors loved that awful movie and I can’t explain it. Rockwell didn’t lose a single precursor, so I guess he’s got it (it should belong to Willem Dafoe).

Winner: Sam Rockwell

Alternate: Willem Dafoe


  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Now this one gives me a little bit of a pause, but not a whole lot, since again, Janney won every single precursor (this is the first time that’s ever happened with the same four actors, oddly enough). But….I, Tonya wasn’t that loved by the Academy so there’s a slim chance they could give it to someone who was in a Best Picture nominee, like Laurie Metcalf or even Lesley Manville. Do they want to give Lady Bird any awards at all? This could be the place to go to honor it. I actually did like Allison Janney in I, Tonya (although her part was so much smaller and more one note than Metcalf’s), so I’m slightly less irked about this particular win.

Winner: Allison Janney

Alternate: Laurie Metcalf

Dark Horse: Lesley Manville