BlacKkKlansman has hit every guild but one
Whole bunch of guild nominations coming at you today. We’ll start with the WGA, which nominates the best screenplays of the year and is usually a strong sign for Oscar nominations, unless the script was ineligible for union reasons (like The Favourite this year).
WGA NOMINATIONS
Will Can You Ever Forgive Me get that script nod on Oscar morning?
Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
No big surprises here- most likely all of these will repeat at the Oscars, since most are inevitable Best Picture nominees, although I suppose there’s a chance that The Death of Stalin could replace Can You Ever Forgive Me (but both are very writerly movies, so it’s a tough call). Black Panther could miss as well, but unlikely I think, since it’s surely a BP nominee.
Original Screenplay
I don’t think this movie makes it into the Oscar nominations
Eighth Grade
Green Book
A Quiet Place (left)
Roma
Vice
These will be the same except for A Quiet Place, which I can almost guarantee will be replaced by The Favourite. I think Eighth Grade might also be a little vulnerable to something like First Reformed, but that should have been eligible here. I’m really surprised that didn’t make it. The Academy writers branch might correct that oversight.
ACE (EDDIE) NOMINATIONS
This is another all important guild for the Best Picture winner. The biggest snub here was Black Panther, since it’s very tough to win without a guild editing nomination (and it loses out to Bohemian Rhapsody? Should have been stronger than that). The rest were mostly expected, and it’s nice to see First Man get in somewhere. I still wonder if that’s a dark horse Best Picture contender (for a nomination I mean). It should also be noted that BlacKkKlansman is having no trouble making it into every guild, so that could also be a stealth BP contender for the win, especially if it could win something big, like the SAG award.
Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
First Man has a nice guild run today
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
Deadpool 2
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
ADG NOMINATIONS
The art directors! This is a guild that’s less important for Best Picture, it mostly just signifies what’s ahead for the production design award (and there could be surprises there on Oscar morning too- not everything that made it in here slips through with the Academy art directors). But there’s Bohemian Rhapsody again, showing that strength across the entire industry. My guess for the five Oscar picks would be Black Panther, The Favourite, Roma, Mary Poppins Returns and maybe Fantastic Beasts?
Period Film
Can this movie be stopped? It’s showing up everywhere
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
Fantasy Film
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
The House With a Clock in its Walls
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Contemporary Film
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Crazy Rich Asians
Mission: Impossible- Fallout
Welcome to Marwen
ASC NOMINATIONS
Cold War rightfully acknowledged for its cinematography
Roma
A Star is Born
The Favourite
First Man
Cold War
Finally, the cinematographers weigh in, with a guild that can occasionally signal just how strong certain movies are, if something got in that didn’t strike you as having great cinematography, necessarily. But here the obvious snubs would be Black Panther and If Beale Street Could Talk, while the surprise might be Cold War (it did have stunning cinematography) and hey, First Man again. Hmm. Adding that all up, the only movie to hit every guild so far is A Star is Born, with BlacKkKlansman right behind it, having hit all but the ASC.
