Okay, its Globes prediction time. I’m not that good at these, because there’s no real accounting for the taste of the HFPA, and there’s no hard and fast rule for the kind of stuff they like. They tend to like big movie stars, but then again they also like international films and will occasionally go for an actor from one of those over say, Julia Roberts or somebody. So let’s just keep that in mind with these.
BEST PICTURE- DRAMA
The Irishman
Joker
The Two Popes
Marriage Story
1917
So, for this one, I think The Irishman is the frontrunner. The big Scorsese Netflix drama is the critics favorite, although 1917 could be the alternate choice. I would go with The Irishman, because it was also nominated for director and screenplay, showing how strong it is overall.
Winner: The Irishman
Alternate: 1917
Dark Horse: Joker (I’d be shocked if this happened, but I guess it’s not impossible)
BEST PICTURE- MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Knives Out
Dolemite is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Rocketman
Pretty much the same reasoning for the drama category- Tarantino was nominated for director and screenplay too, so that makes his movie the frontrunner. Jojo Rabbit is also possible, as to me that one seems like the kind of movie the Globes would like more.
Winner: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alternate: Jojo Rabbit
Dark Horse: Knives Out
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Les Miserables
Parasite is going to sweep this category everywhere, it’s not even a contest. Bong Joon-ho’s director nomination tells us that.
Winner: Parasite
Alternate: Pain and Glory
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Oooh. This is really hard, because Scorsese, Tarantino and Bong Joon-ho all have films that are frontrunners in their respective Best Picture categories. I really think it could be any of them. So this is where other factors come into play. Is Scorsese too much of a legend to be overlooked? Is Tarantino overdue, having never won for director? Is Bong Joon-ho’s movie just undeniable in terms of actual directorial achievement? God, I don’t know.
Winner: Bong Joon-ho
Alternate: Quentin Tarantino
Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese
BEST SCREENPLAY
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
The Two Popes
Parasite
The Irishman
We don’t know if this is a year where the Globes will go all in for one movie or prefer to spread the wealth. If the latter, they probably won’t pick one of the movies up for directing. That could give the edge to Marriage Story, but they also really did like The Two Popes, so this could be where they reward it. Huh.
Winner: Marriage Story
Alternate: The Two Popes
Dark Horse: The Irishman
BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlie Theron, Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
I think this probably goes to Renee Zellweger. I haven’t sensed momentum for another choice (but of course, the Globes could create that by choosing someone else, a big star like ScarJo for example).
Winner: Renee Zellweger
Alternate: Scarlett Johansson
BEST ACTOR- DRAMA
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Man, this is a close one between Joaquin Phoenix and Adam Driver, I think. I don’t know what they will go for- whoever wins this will take a huge surge in momentum for the following awards shows too. Do they reward Phoenix for the success of Joker or is Driver too undeniable? I think I’ll go with Phoenix, since the movie is also up for Picture and Director.
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix
Alternate: Adam Driver
BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
Well, since The Farewell and Knives Out are the movies nominated for separate Best Picture categories here, it stands to reason that the winner should probably be from one of them. I’m gonna go with Ana de Armas for the Rian Johnson hit.
Winner: Ana de Armas
Alternate: Awkwafina
BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
This one’s kinda hard. Leo’s won before, and he’s a huge Globes favorite. But Eddie Murphy once was as well, decades ago and this is the perfect comeback role for him. Still, I have a feeling they’re going to choose Taron Egerton for his performance as Elton John in Rocketman. It’s a showy musical and they like those.
Winner: Taron Egerton
Alternate: Eddie Murphy
Dark Horse: Leonardo Dicaprio
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report
JLo would be the big movie star choice, in line with some past Globes picks. But I think they’ll go with Laura Dern here, and she’ll pick up steam as the frontrunner in this category for the Oscars.
Winner: Laura Dern
Alternate: Jennifer Lopez
Dark Horse: Margot Robbie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Here’s where they’ll go for the big star. I think Brad Pitt wins this and starts his own path to Oscar winner status. Joe Pesci has been the critics favorite, but I don’t think the Globes will be able to resist crowning Brad Pitt here.
Winner: Brad Pitt
Alternate: Joe Pesci
Dark Horse: Al Pacino
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
The Lion King
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Well, as the best reviewed and highly successful of these, I think it goes to Toy Story 4? A category filled with only sequels as potential winners stumps me for the Oscars, but Pixar has the edge I think, as the most respected studio in animation.
Winner: Toy Story 4
Alternate: Frozen II
Dark Horse: The Lion King (this would be stupid, but it’s probably got an outside shot)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
Joker
Marriage Story
Little Women
Motherless Brooklyn
I’m really unsure on this one. Marriage Story actually had a pretty good score, so maybe that? Or is this where 1917 wins something?
Winner: 1917
Alternate: Marriage Story
Dark Horse: Joker
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“Spirit,” The Lion King
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats
Haha, watch Cats win this. Of course that won’t happen. There’s no real frontrunner, so the HFPA will default to star status and award Elton John.
Winner: “(I’m Gonna” Love Me Again”
Alternate: “Stand Up”
Dark Horse: “Into the Unknown”
