Now we come to the moment of truth. I don’t think it’s a hard choice this year- it’s basically 1917 in the lead with Parasite as a strong upset possibility.
BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
So for this one it’s basically not smart to predict anyone who didn’t win the DGA. That’s the most accurate precursor for this, unless it’s some kind of weird fluke year where the DGA winner wasn’t nominated (like Ben Affleck and Argo, for example). Sam Mendes also won at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice (split with Bong Joon-ho there) and BAFTA, so he’s safe for this anyway.
BEST PICTURE
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
And now we come down to the nitty gritty. How to assess Best Picture this year? Well, first of all, a reminder about this weird preferential ballot the Academy uses (for only this category, don’t forget). It’s not the movie that gets the most votes. The choices are ranked 1-9 and it goes through rounds of voting if no movie gets a certain percentage right off the bat, where second and third place votes are tabulated, etc. This is how we can occasionally get surprise winners, most recently, when Moonlight beat La La Land at the last minute.
But this year, it looks fairly safe for 1917, because the movie won at the PGA, which is the only other group that uses this same type of balloting. And of course it also won the DGA for Sam Mendes, and that combination of precursor is pretty strong. It also swept at BAFTA, but BAFTA actually hasn’t matched Best Picture since 2013, when 12 Years a Slave won, so maybe that’s a bad omen? If there’s anything else that can take it down with second and third round voting, I think it’s Parasite, which had a strong guild run, winning SAG, WGA, and ACE (editing), the most significant guilds after PGA and DGA. It’s obviously going to be high on people’s ballots, with lots of second and third place votes, which could help it come out on top (if 1917 doesn’t just win on the first round of course). And it would make history, as the first foreign-language film to ever win Best Picture- the question is and has always been, if those movies having their own separate category has hampered them from winning in the past?
And then after that, my guess is Jojo Rabbit is actually the movie that has a tiny sliver of a chance to upset, after also winning at some important guilds, including ACE and WGA, and getting that DGA nod that Joker didn’t get. It’s very popular in the industry. I thought Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be, but after wining at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards, it went on to be basically skunked by all the major industry awards, except the art direction guild. And supporting actor of course. As for the rest of them, they’re basically all also rans, and will come in at the bottom of the ballots, so if those movies are the number one choice for voters, their second and third choices will matter more.
Winner: 1917 (65% chance to win)
Alternate: Parasite (30% chance)
Dark Horse: Jojo Rabbit (5% chance)
