I have a feeling my Golden Globes predictions are going to be wildly off the mark this year- who knows what the HFPA liked or not? They didn’t get their usual wine and dine treatment from the stars and publicists (or at least not as much of it), and a lot of the time their picks don’t wind up correlating with Oscar results anyway. But let’s go for it and see what happens.
BEST PICTURE- DRAMA
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
See, I find myself at a loss. Most of these movies got all the key nominations from them- there’s no telling from that what they preferred. I’m gonna go ahead and guess Trial of the Chicago 7, but to be honest- any of these could win.
Winner: Chicago 7
Alternate: Nomadland
Dark Horse: The Father
BEST ACTOR- DRAMA
Riz Ahmed, The Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
I have a feeling the Globes are going to go for Anthony Hopkins here. Most people assume Boseman has it in the bag, but I’m not so sure. They really liked The Father and they also like their big name legends. I’m taking a leap.
Winner: Anthony Hopkins
Alternate: Chadwick Boseman
Dark Horse: Riz Ahmed
BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
I guess I’m going to go with Carey Mulligan? They liked the movie, nominated it in Picture, Director and Screenplay. It could be Frances McDormand as well, or Viola Davis (but they weren’t huge fans of Ma Rainey). My instinct is saying Mulligan will snag it.
Winner: Carey Mulligan
Alternate: Frances McDormand
BEST PICTURE- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Palm Springs
Music
The Prom
They were slammed for nominating the Sia movie everywhere, so that’s not winning. It’s either Borat or Hamilton in my opinion, and it’s impossible to gauge whether these voters think Hamilton, a pre-recorded stage performance from four years ago, should win this, but it is a way of acknowledging the phenomenon, right? I guess I’m taking a leap on this one too.
Winner: Hamilton
Alternate: Borat
BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
So, Cohen won this award for playing Borat the first time around- will he get it again for the sequel? Sure, I don’t see why not. He had a pretty big year with this and Chicago 7. They may try to spread the wealth, but I don’t think they’ll be thinking that consciously about it.
Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen
Alternate: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Dark Horse: Dev Patel
BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
I think Bakalova should and will win here for her amazing performance in Borat. Pike may have a chance with her movie having just come out on Netflix, but I don’t see the others taking it.
Winner: Maria Bakalova
Alternate: Rosamund Pike
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluua, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
There’s a lot of people who think Cohen wins this category instead of the comedy one as recognition for his big year, but honestly there’s no reason he can’t win both. I would prefer Leslie Odom Jr. to win, so I’m going to predict him. Miami didn’t get nominated in Picture, but Regina King did get the director nomination and it got a song nod, so I think enough of them saw and liked the movie enough to pick someone who’s not Cohen.
Winner: Leslie Odom, Jr.
Alternate: Sacha Baron Cohen
Dark Horse: Daniel Kaluuya
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Ugh. I have a bad feeling about Glenn Close here. She’s way, WAY overdue now and she may just coast on that narrative for a movie that got slammed by pretty much all the critics. I’d prefer Seyfried. And I’ll predict her, hoping the Globes will do the right thing, since they actually like Mank much more than Hillbilly Elegy, which has its only nomination in this category.
Winner: Amanda Seyfried
Alternate: Glenn Close
Dark Horse: Olivia Colman
BEST DIRECTOR
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
I think this where they go with Nomadland, but it could very well be Aaron Sorkin, who they genuinely love. And you know what, Fincher could win here too- they also loved Mank. This is a real tossup. Nomadland doesn’t seem like a Globes kind of movie to me, but sometimes they like to be contrarian as well.
Winner: Chloe Zhao
Alternate: David Fincher
Dark Horse: Aaron Sorkin
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
I’m thinking Chicago 7, due to the Globes’ history of loving Sorkin movies and screenplays. If I’m picking it to win Picture, it’ll probably take some other things with it, most likely this one.
Winner: Chicago 7
Alternate: Mank
Dark Horse: Promising Young Woman
BEST SCORE
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
News of the World
Mank
Soul
Ummm….News of the World was the best one of these to me, but this might be the category where they feel they can reward Mank, especially if doesn’t get much else.
Winner: Mank
Alternate: News of the World
Dark Horse: Soul
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice,” Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Is (Seen)” The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” One Night in Miami
“Tigress & Tweed” The United States vs. Billie Holiday
They usually go for the biggest name in this category but there really isn’t one this year, so I’m thinking the song from One Night in Miami, sung by Leslie Odom Jr.
Winner: “Speak Now”
Alternate: “lo Si”
Dark Horse: “Hear My Voice”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Coods: New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
This is the only one I’m 100% confident in. Soul takes it easily.
Winner: Soul
Alternate: Wolfwalkers
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Another Round
La Llorona
The Life Ahead
Minari
Two of Us
Even though they didn’t nominate this movie anywhere else, there was a such a big stink made from the press and the film’s cast about placing it in this category to begin with (although it does qualify based on their rules) that I can’t see Minari not winning this.
Winner: Minari
Alternate: The Life Ahead
Dark Horse: Another Round
